“The sun always comes after the storm, and everything will be fine.” Such heavy words reveal endless innocence and helplessness, and the infinite feelings of the seniors in the textile industry. Where is the direction of the yarn industry?
The textile industry is in the midst of a storm, with obstacles ahead and pursuers behind. How to face it? right. On the road to internal and external troubles, it is subject to the risk of economic downward pressure and consumption downgrade. The trade war has been going on for more than a year now, and Southeast Asian countries, led by Vietnam, continue to erode their international market share. The intrusion of public health events is more prominent, and the decline in export growth is an inevitable crisis. Recently, crude oil has started a price war and plummeted by 30%, which has added glory to the industry and created difficulties for market participants. This time, piece by piece, silently hit the textile industry.
It can be seen that the price of double materials has been falling since the holiday. At this moment, polyester stocks are about to fall below the 2016 low price and hit the lowest strength in 10 years. The benchmark price of semi-glossy white 1.4D*38mm dropped to 6,200, a decrease of 10.47% from before the holiday. There is already a price of 6,000 on the market.
In addition, multiple negative factors have fermented, ICE has fallen sharply, and Zheng cotton has hit its lower limit. The spot market price is about to return to the level at the end of October and early November last year, although it is lower than the price at the beginning of 2016. There is still a gap, but supply has widened and back-end demand has failed to effectively follow up. The support that should have been given to the industry has become a source of restraint for growth. The national average price of 3128B cotton dropped to 12723, a decrease of 8.02% from before the holiday. (Unit: yuan/ton)
Yarn companies have resumed work one after another after February 10, and some companies have even just resumed work in the past two days. Due to the high cost of protection and low product inventory, companies in Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places successively raised their quotations by 200-300 at the end of February due to the decline in raw materials. However, the actual transaction difficulty can be imagined. With PTA falling to the limit, MEG falling to the limit, cotton hitting the falling limit, the decline in raw materials has made the downstream price pressure sentiment more prominent, low-price inquiries have increased, but the high price costs of enterprises have been locked in, and the window for yarn price correction has opened, and they will face the pressure of losses. , we have to focus on executing orders, and new orders are negotiated one by one.
Inventory: Consciously limit inventory and control it rationally
In In the early days of resumption of work, yarn companies only opened a small number of workshops. In addition, logistics and transactions were restricted, and inventory digestion did not accelerate. As the industrial chain gradually recovers, early orders are successively executed. After a short period of accumulation, social inventory is controlled at a more controllable level. As of now, the yarn inventory remains at about 20 days.
Weaving: Textile City is slow to open and there is a window for orders
Keqiao’s textile printing and dyeing industry has become famous all over the world with the advantages of “Textile City + Printing and Dyeing”. However, due to the impact of public health events, the opening of the Textile City has been postponed. Guangzhou International Textile City will not open until the 10th. . The traditional peak season in previous years has disappeared, and now new orders are slow to be placed. Foreign trade orders are shrinking or even canceled due to the escalation of overseas health incidents. At the same time, the zero-tariff policy in Southeast Asia has cleverly captured more overseas market shares. It is not difficult to see the difficulties and pain points of weaving enterprises. Although orders have been placed one after another, most of them are orders that have not been placed before the holiday, and the window period for new orders still exists.
Textile and apparel exports: down 21.77% year-on-year from January to February
Exports occupy an indispensable position in the troika that drives economic development. However, one wave has come after another, and the decline in exports due to this disaster is also expected. According to customs statistics, my country’s textile and clothing exports from January to February 2020 were US$29.8348 billion, -21.77% year-on-year. Exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US$13.7725 billion, -19.9% year-on-year. Exports of clothing and clothing accessories were US$16.0623 billion, -20.0% year-on-year.
Taken together, the development trend of the trade war and the control of public health events basically determine the difficulty of the subsequent operation of the textile industry. Returning to the present, difficulties still exist. The decline in raw materials will gradually change the existing supply and demand pattern of the yarn industry. Textile companies will continue to operate on demand and according to orders to avoid falling into deep losses under the pressure of competition and cooperation. </p
