Yesterday, Zheng Mian jumped high, and his performance was a bit weird. There are a lot of speculations in the market about what the truth behind it is. I think it is more or less related to an unconfirmed news released by a certain media. Regardless of whether the news is true or false, at least Zheng Mian’s performance today did not disappoint it.
Of course, the market’s long and short views are different, and the logic is naturally different. No one is right or wrong. Each practical group has its own special skills, otherwise it will be eliminated by the market long ago. Therefore, when cotton prices rise and fall, retail investors need to be more rational and cannot follow what others say. The final result of following the news will only be slapped in the face.
I am afraid there is no conclusion as to how high this rebound can go. The answer will only come after the market has verified it. However, judging from the current fundamentals, the outside world is indeed full of concerns about its rise. The author has clearly stated in the previous two articles that downstream textile companies may face extreme pressure in May, because most companies can barely maintain production in April. In the case of a significant reduction in orders, corporate funds are relatively able to support it. However, as production continues to increase, once sales stagnate and inventory piles up in warehouses, funds will be enough to become the last straw to overwhelm the company. In order to avoid this situation, production can only be shut down and reduced. The market has already released news of the closure of some companies, and it is expected that more closures will occur in May. In such a situation, Zheng Mian took the lead alone and drove prices upward, which went against the laws of economics.
Since poor fundamentals are the main reason why the short side is not optimistic about the price, where do the bulls get the courage? There is no contradiction between short-term bearishness and long-term bullishness. According to the author’s understanding, everyone is bullish in the long term, because the epidemic will eventually pass, and epidemic incidents in history have been proven, and it is just a matter of the cost. Our country is now carrying out clinical vaccine trials, which provide strong scientific and technological support for the future fight against the epidemic. In this context, there are not many people who have the idea of buying the bottom. Whenever there is a slight disturbance from the outside world, it will be fully released and reacted on the market. Furthermore, the rise and fall itself is a normal operating track of the market, just like: “The crookedness is complete, the false is straight, the hollow is surplus, the hollow is new, the less is gain, and the more is confusion.”
Yesterday After the closing, some people were happy and some were sad. They benefited a lot from chasing the rise the day before yesterday. Those who were short yesterday should have some reflections. In the volatile market, the most important thing is to follow the correct rhythm of short-term operations, and everything else is secondary.
Finally, the author makes a simple judgment on the future trend. There will be both long and short factors in the future. Under the premise that the global epidemic has not yet stabilized, the domestic commodity market will still be treated as a volatile market. In the short term, there is no upward or downward trend. A clear signal for a downward breakout. In short, there are opportunities for both bullish and bearish trades, and the most important thing is to maintain a good attitude. </p
