After two consecutive days of plummeting, crude oil finally recovered last night. International oil prices rebounded sharply during the session. The increase in the main US oil contract continued to expand to nearly 40%, rising by nearly 5 US dollars per barrel during the day, and finally closed up 19 %. Brent oil, which hit a new low in nearly 21 years, closed up more than 5%. At 6 o’clock this morning, WTI crude oil futures opened another 6% higher at $14.71 per barrel.
At 4 o’clock this morning, according to FX168, two people familiar with the matter said that the United States was allegedly An investigation into whether inside information related to Russia’s negotiations with other oil-producing countries was leaked allowed traders to reap hundreds of millions of dollars in benefits from crude oil price fluctuations. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will focus on investigating whether the strategies of Russia and the OPEC alliance last month were leaked to market participants in advance. At the same time, the UK Financial Conduct Authority is also investigating suspicious traders in futures contract trading. One source said the companies involved in the investigation do employ people with direct ties to the Kremlin. The CFTC is currently investigating transactions involving WTI crude oil contracts. Spokespersons for the CFTC and the UK Financial Conduct Authority declined to comment.
It was reported earlier that Harold Hamm, an ally of U.S. President Trump and the founder of Continental Resources Inc., was reporting to U.S. commodity market regulators and the New York Stock Exchange are pressuring it to investigate whether market manipulation or system failure was behind this week’s unprecedented plunge in U.S. crude futures.
After oil prices continued to plummet, many oil-producing countries made urgent statements to stabilize the oil market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the Trump administration is studying different plans to support U.S. oil producers; oil prices are expected to rise back to $30 per barrel in August.
With low oil prices, there are many people who want to buy the bottom. Australian Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor issued a statement on the 22nd, saying that the Australian government intends to allocate 94 million Australian dollars (approximately 59.58 million U.S. dollars) to establish a government oil reserve to increase the country’s oil reserves as global oil prices plummet. Ensure energy security. The statement said that Australia will reach an agreement with the United States to store the first batch of crude oil purchased by the Australian government in the strategic petroleum reserve base of the United States. The statement showed that as of the end of February this year, Australia’s entire oil reserves, including oil stored in overseas ports and in transit, were equivalent to 81 days of supply.
European stocks closed collectively higher. Germany’s DAX index rose 1.59% to 10412.81 points, France’s CAC40 index rose 1.25% to 4411.92 points, and Britain’s FTSE 100 index rose 2.07% to 5757.78 points. . U.S. stocks also ended two consecutive losses. The S&P 500 index closed up 62.80 points, or 2.29%, at 2799.31 points; the Nasdaq index closed up 232.10 points, or 2.81%, at 8495.38 points; the Dow Jones index closed up 456.90 points, or 2799.31 points. 1.99%, reported 23475.82 points.
In addition, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12%; London copper rose 1.63%; gold rose 2.01%; U.S. soybeans rose 0.19%; U.S. soybean meal fell 0.31%; U.S. soybean oil rose 0.70%; U.S. sugar fell 0.10%; U.S. cotton rose 5.49%; CRB index rose 4.53%; BDI index fell 4.67%; offshore RMB CNH rose 0.05% to 7.0981; Deutsche Bank X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-share ETF rose 2.04 %.
EIA’s latest data released, International crude oil rebounded from lows
At 22:30 Beijing time on April 22, data released by the U.S. EIA showed that the increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves in the week ending April 17 More than expected, refined oil inventories increased more than expected, while gasoline inventories increased less than expected. U.S. crude oil inventories have increased by more than 10 million barrels for five consecutive weeks, and the increase last week was close to 20 million barrels. After the EIA data was released, U.S. crude oil prices continued their upward trend, rising by $0.7 in the short term.
Specific data shows that the EIA crude oil inventory change in the United States for the week ending April 17 actually increased by 15.022 million barrels, and was expected to increase by 13.92 million barrels. The previous value increased by 19.248 million barrels; gasoline The actual increase in inventories was 1.017 million barrels, and the expected increase was 4.551 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 4.914 million barrels; the EIA refined oil inventory was actually announced to be an increase of 7.876 million barrels, and the expected increase was 3.659 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 6.28 million barrels.
The EIA report showed that U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 546,000 barrels per day to 2.89 million barrels per day last week, and production decreased by 100,000 barrels per day last week to 12.2 million barrels per day. The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 15.047 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25.4% from the same period last year.
Agency commented on EIA inventory data saying that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15.02 million barrels, exceeding the 13.2 million barrels of API crude oil inventories announced in the morning. The increase in inventories highlighted the oil market Facing severe inventory pressure. Separately, gasoline prices edged higher as inventories rose by 1.02 million barrels less than expected; four-week gasoline demand also fell to a record low, while overall imports fell to their lowest level since 1992.
On the evening of the 22nd, international oil prices rebounded from lows. The main contract of Brent oil turned higher and regained the $19 mark. It once fell by more than 17% during the session, and U.S. oil fell by nearly 1%. Invested near the $12 mark. Subsequently, international oil prices continued to rebound, and the increase in the main U.S. oil contract continued to expand to nearly 40% during the day, rising by nearly 5 US dollars during the day.
In terms of news, after oil prices continued to plummet, many oil-producing countries made urgent statements to stabilize the oil market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the Trump administration is studying different plans to support U.S. oil producers.��� Oil prices are expected to rise back to US$30/barrel in August.
Russian Energy Minister Novak said that oil production cuts by OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries may reach 15 million barrels per day to 20 million barrels per day in May. Will ease the situation in the oil market. Iraqi Oil Minister Jaban also previously said that OPEC+ may take further measures to digest excess supply. Further steps taken by oil-producing countries will depend on developments in global markets and compliance by OPEC+ and other non-OPEC producers with the production-cut agreement.
The cost collapse effect is significant, and chemical product prices hit a new low during the year
On April 22, domestic chemical futures prices generally fell sharply. Among them, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, and styrene futures fell by the limit. Asphalt and ethylene glycol fell by 7-8%. Plastics, PP, PVC, and LPG all showed different trends. The decline was so severe that some varieties even hit the low for the second time during the year, approaching a new low in five years.
“The general decline in energy and chemical products was mainly caused by the sharp intraday decline in crude oil. The main Brent crude oil contract fell by more than 20% during Asian time.” In Zhaojin According to Yu Pengsen, a futures energy researcher, there are two main reasons for the sharp decline in international crude oil prices: First, the latest data released by the American Petroleum Institute in the early morning showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 13.2 million barrels last week, reaching 500 million barrels. At the same time, crude oil inventories in Cushing, U.S. gasoline inventories, and refined oil inventories have all increased significantly. The crude oil futures market responded sharply to this major negative after opening. Second, the crude oil market continues to be in a downturn, and the downward trend has not yet been alleviated. The supply has not been effectively reduced, and demand has fallen off a cliff. In addition, major international investment banks are bearish, Singing short, the market generally believes that crude oil will continue to decline and will be difficult to end.
Yu Pengsen said that due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream demand has decreased, chemical products generally have large inventories, and their fundamentals are poor. The decline in crude oil prices is undoubtedly a drain on the bottom, and the collapse of costs has almost Become the last straw for the chemical industry.
Huang Liqiang, director of the Investment Consulting Department of Jinshi Futures, also said that the decline in chemical prices was mainly affected by the sharp drop in international crude oil prices. Although OPEC+ reached an agreement on April 12 to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day in the next two months, global crude oil demand lost more than 20 million barrels per day in the second quarter, which caused a significant expansion of global crude oil inventories. As storage capacity becomes tight and storage costs rise, holding spot crude oil will continue to result in a loss of cash flow. In this case, the front-month contract of WTI crude oil fell into negative values, triggering panic in the market.
“Although there is a certain degree of contingency for oil prices to fall into negative values, this does reflect the fact that global crude oil storage capacity is currently insufficient. In this case, the market is pessimistic about oil prices and costs collapse. “Triggering the weakening of chemical prices.” Huang Liqiang said that in the short term, the problem of storage capacity is currently difficult to solve, and the weak oil price pattern is difficult to change. The supply of domestic chemical products originally exceeds demand, and most of them operate around the cost line. The impact of oil prices on prices The impact is obvious. This indicates that chemical prices will end their early rebound, return to weakness, and even hit new lows.
Crude oil funds have fallen sharply, and industry insiders recommend investing cautiously
Subject to The crude oil ETF contract is constantly being adjusted due to the impact of market conditions.
On April 22, USCF announced that it would execute an eight-for-one reverse stock split after the stock market closes on April 28, 2020. Valid for all shareholders of .US). After the reverse stock split takes effect, USO’s net asset value after the stock split will be 8 times what it was before the stock split. Previously, in response to the sharp premium in futures contracts, the USO investment ratio was revised to “40% June contract + 55% July contract + 5% August contract” starting from the 21st. Subsequent adjustments may still be made based on the premium.
USO was established in 2006. Its main holdings are the WTI crude oil futures contracts of the New York Stock Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange. It is a passively managed crude oil ETF. Recently, with the sharp decline in front-month contracts, the net value of USO, which passively holds a large number of recent crude oil contracts, has plummeted. USO has fallen by 62% this year.
According to the disclosed first quarter report of the fund, there are currently at least 6 domestic QDIIs holding USO at the end of the first quarter, among which E Fund Crude Oil, Southern Crude Oil, and Cathay Pacific Commodities hold the proportion of USO Both exceeded 18%. The holding ratios of Prudential Global Commodities Theme and Harvest Crude Oil were 15.12% and 13.4% respectively. Since the beginning of this year, domestic crude oil-related listed funds such as Harvest Crude Oil, Noah Oil and Gas, Crude Oil Fund, and GF Petroleum have all fallen by more than 30%, and some funds have fallen by more than 60%.
On April 22, E Fund Crude Oil, Harvest Crude Oil, and Southern Crude Oil Fund all issued warning announcements on exchange price fluctuations. In addition to the risk of changes in the net value of fund shares, the above-mentioned crude oil funds It will also be affected by other factors such as market supply and demand, systemic risk, liquidity risk, etc., which may cause investors to face losses.
As for the idea of some investors using crude oil funds to buy bottoms, industry insiders remind that paper crude oil products similar to those of ICBC and Bank of China are not simple oil price trackers, but through WTI crude oil contracts. Month-changing operations are used to track oil prices, which carries huge risks during special periods.
In addition, there is news that supervision has stopped the declaration of popular ETFs such as crude oil ETFs and set a limit on the proportion of liquid market capitalization. It is reported that the regulatory authorities have suspended the declaration of ETF products in the early popular industries such as semiconductors, 5G, and new energy vehicles. At the same time, commodity ETFs such as crude oil with poor liquidity have also been suspended. The crude oil ETF declaration submitted by some institutions has also been returned. .
Commodity ETFs were also suspended, and crude oil ETF applications submitted by some institutions were also returned. </p
