On April 22, each contract of Zheng Cotton marked a “V”-shaped reversal. In the afternoon, the market performance was relatively strong, and it continuously regained important levels. Yesterday, Zheng Cotton continued to open higher, and the CF2009 contract launched another charge towards 12,000 yuan/ton without any bloodshed. Judging from the increase in Zheng Cotton’s trading volume, position and technical aspects, there is a high probability that funds will enter the market to buy the bottom and speculate to increase the price. As Zheng cotton rebounded sharply, the panic among traders and cotton processing companies in Xinjiang quickly subsided, and the phenomenon of selling goods to withdraw funds came to an abrupt end. The lint basis quotations and fixed prices were violently adjusted upwards.
What is the reason that Zheng Cotton, which has been weak and sluggish since mid-April, suddenly breaks out? There are various opinions and speculations in the market. The author believes that the following three factors have also contributed to the rebound of Zheng Cotton:
First, at the press conference held by the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council on April 16 Relevant personnel stated that as of April 14, the average operating rate of industrial enterprises above designated size across the country has reached 99%, and the staff return rate has reached 94%. With the frequent good news about domestic epidemic prevention and control, production, sales, logistics and other aspects have been fully restored. In addition, the government departments have introduced a series of measures to “promote foreign trade and stabilize production”. The number of orders and confidence of cotton textile, clothing and foreign trade enterprises has continued. recover.
Secondly, not only agricultural products, but also metal, non-ferrous and black products all have red flags flying. Directly driven by the positive news that European and American countries will press the “restart button” on their economies in May and the sharp rise in crude oil futures in the past two days, most domestic futures varieties showed a “high open and high move” on April 23. , Zheng Mian rebounded sharply due to the hype of funds.
Third, the central bank has continuously adopted “reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates” to release huge amounts of liquidity, and funds have begun to enter the real economy (especially small and micro enterprises), commodity futures markets, and stock and bond markets. In the first quarter of this year, the central bank used a variety of tools to guide social financing costs to continue to decline and maintain liquidity at a reasonable and sufficient level. According to the report card released by the central bank on April 16, both the fight against the epidemic and industries greatly affected by the epidemic have received strong loan support. In addition, more medium and long-term loans flow to the manufacturing, infrastructure and service industries. </p