Time has arrived in August. The terminal market is weak and hard to change. Inventories are high and the PTA spot market price fluctuations are weak. However, because cost support still exists, the processing fee level of PTA companies remains neutral; but can the supply maintenance in the later stage be maintained? It still takes time to verify the implementation and the smooth return of downstream terminal market orders.
Device maintenance may cause a gap between supply and demand. Pay attention to the actual implementation of maintenance by enterprises.
In recent times, PTA equipment has been overhauled, restarted and put into operation in parallel. Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, and Fuhai Chuang and Xinjiang Zhongtai units have been overhauled and restarted. The only company entering maintenance this month is Jiaxing Petrochemical. Therefore, the PTA supply side remained high in July. And driven by profits, the operating load of domestic PTA companies remains high, and the overall social inventory continues to grow. Currently, there is less spot circulation in the PTA market, and the overall market is in a weak situation; supply and demand and basis continue to restrict the upside space of PTA futures.
The average operating rate in July was around 89%, and the output in July was around 4.32 million tons. Recently, Luoyang Petrochemical’s PTA unit has been unexpectedly overhauled, and Tongkun’s restart time is planned to be extended. Multiple units have maintenance plans from August to September. If the overhauls are implemented one by one and superimposed, it will benefit the PTA supply side in the short term.
Overall, from the perspective of supply expectations in August, PTA device maintenance will cause a phased contraction in supply and create a gap between supply and demand, but we still need to pay attention to PTA companies The actual implementation of maintenance.
Downstream printing and dyeing links are recovering, and terminal suppliers are paying attention to orders in mid-to-late August
July gathering The ester load is basically maintained at around 87%. In July, 1.1 million tons of new polyester production equipment were put into operation, including 250,000 tons of polyester chips in Fujian Baihong, 250,000 tons of polyester filament in Hengyi Haining, and 600,000 tons of polyester filament in Nantong Hengke. Silk. Currently polyester is being overhauled and restarted in parallel. And there are still new devices expected to be put into operation in August. Therefore, although the polyester load is lower than the same period in previous years, polyester output will continue to show a growth trend. As of July 30, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 59.44%, month-on-month. An increase of 0.72 percentage points.
Recently, overall orders have improved month-on-month compared with the previous period, and domestic and foreign sales orders have shown a slight increase in volume. The printing and dyeing market in Shengze has improved compared with the previous period, and some dyeing factory salesmen have It means that the number of warehouses entering the warehouse has begun to increase, and the operation rate of dyeing plants has also increased. According to monitoring, the current operating rate of dyeing plants has increased from 55% in the previous period to 65%. Although it has not increased to the level of the same period last year, it is about 10% better than the previous month. “We only opened 50% of the machines before, but now we have 80% of them. Although there are still not many large orders in the factory, the orders are indeed more than before.”
It is understood that in the second half of the year, the transaction volume of spring and summer clothing fabrics continues to shrink, and orders mainly for imitation silk begin to weaken, while the autumn and winter clothing in the domestic trade market Fabric proofing, testing and orders have gradually begun to increase. Therefore, during this period, the dyeing factory’s orders for autumn and winter fabrics have increased significantly, especially for stretch fabrics, and the market transaction atmosphere is more prominent. From the perspective of the industry chain, printing and dyeing is in the downstream link of the fabric market, and the downstream market has released signals of improvement. However, due to the excessive inventory backlog in the early stage, the industry is still under high inventory pressure, resulting in a small increase in the production enthusiasm of the industry. In addition, there are still many uncertainties in the recovery of the foreign trade market, especially the rising trade friction between China and the United States, which has led to some countries being resistant to Chinese products. It is still unknown what state the foreign trade market will return to. The eyes of the industry are also focused on the return of Gold Nine and Silver Ten. Most terminal suppliers are still paying more attention to the trend of order prices in mid-to-late August.
In short, whether the domestic market outlook equipment will start maintenance within the specified time still has a close relationship with the price difference, supply and demand of PTA market price. are inextricably linked, while downstream demands still tug at the heartstrings of industry insiders. In the future, the progress of the equipment and downstream demand will become the key factors that dominate the market trend of polyester raw materials. </p
