Overview:
US crude oil 09 contract It started a correction this week, with a weekly decline of 2.2%, closing at $40.43. The weekly decline of the Brent Oil 10 contract was a smaller 0.41%, closing at US$43.71. The external crude oil may have several slight corrections, but it will not change the overall upward trend of shock. The main contract of domestic SC crude oil in 2009 fell as much as 3.28% on a weekly basis, and continued to fall last Friday night. The internal market is obviously weaker than the external market.
Overseas epidemics are still recurring. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 4.7643 million, with nearly 160,000 deaths, and more than 50,000 new diagnoses in a single day. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa is not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has reached 270,800.
The weaving operating rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks. The load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded slightly to 66%, and the texturing operating rate has rebounded slightly to 77%. The polyester load remained stable at a high level last week, and as of last Friday the load was 91%. The inventory of polyester products diverged last week.
PTA:
The average price of PTA spot prices rose slightly last week , as of last Friday it was 3,545 yuan/ton. The main processing gap of TA has fluctuated and widened this week, reaching 737 as of last Friday. The spot processing gap widened significantly to 682 last week. The PX-NPT spread remains stable at a low of $156.
Ethylene glycol:
As of July 27, East China The MEG port inventory in the main port area is approximately 1.481 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from July 27 to August 2, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 214,000 tons, which is a neutral to bullish level. Overseas maintenance is planned to be carried out from August to November. Shipments from the mainstream reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang and Taicang have been unstable recently. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are still serious.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw Material Market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
Based on cfr Japan naphtha, naphtha (cfr Japan) basically showed a downward trend last week, falling to 387 last Friday USD/ton. The U.S. crude oil 09 contract started a correction last week, with a weekly decline of 2.2%, closing at $40.43. The weekly decline of the Brent Oil 10 contract was a smaller 0.41%, closing at US$43.71. The external crude oil may have several slight corrections, but it will not change the overall upward trend of shock. The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil narrowed significantly this week as a whole compared with last week, reaching around US$69 as of last Friday; the price difference between naphtha and WTI crude oil narrowed to around US$91 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) fluctuated and fell during the week, reaching US$543/ton last Thursday. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $156 as of last Thursday. PX Asia’s operating rate and PX China’s operating rate dropped significantly from last week.
2 Changes in costs and profits
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol fluctuated and rose last week, rising to 3,677 yuan last Friday. The average domestic price is about 3,653 yuan, which is a significant increase of 107 yuan from last week. The equivalent coal contract price is about 3,453-3,503 yuan. The chart is based on the nearby spot price – 3,250 yuan/ton. The loss level of coal-based ethylene glycol remains stable, with the highest regional loss around -1,300 yuan. The cash flow loss of externally produced ethylene glycol decreased slightly to around -$92. The cash flow loss from naphtha to ethylene glycol decreased to around -$27/ton. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route has significantly recovered to around -813 yuan/ton. All ethylene glycol process lines suffered comprehensive losses, but the losses continued to ease month-on-month.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
Polyester production capacity from July 1, 2020 The base number was revised up to 61.1 million tons. The new installations include: Shenghong 250,000 tons (filament), Yisheng 250,000 tons (bottle flakes), Yijin 100,000 tons (short fiber), and Yihua 200,000 tons (short fiber). fiber). Last week, polyester equipment was undergoing maintenance. In addition, the production of filament bottle flakes was moderately reduced, and the load was reduced. As of last Friday, the polyester load was at 91%. Last Thursday, some polyester yarns saw strong trading volume amid rising prices, mainly POY. The average estimate for the day was around 140%.
Table 1: Recent major device changes in polyester:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
PTA domestic installation ——As the Hengli Phase 5 2.5 million tons PTA device was put into operation at the end of June, the PTA production capacity base was adjusted to 54.83 million tons. Sinopec Luoyang’s 325,000-ton unit will start shutting down on July 27, and maintenance is expected to last 40 days; Yangzi Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton unit plans to undergo maintenance for 2 weeks in early August; Zhejiang Huabin’s 1.4 million-ton unit plans to undergo maintenance for 2 weeks in mid-August; Taiwan Chemical Industry 120 The 10,000-ton unit is scheduled to be inspected for two weeks starting from early August; a 1.2 million-ton unit in Sanfang Lane is scheduled to be inspected in August. The 2.2 million-ton unit in Jiaxing was shut down on the night of July 12, and the plan was to postpone its restart until early August.
Table 2: PTA’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research So
Ethylene glycol unit: The load and comprehensive operating rate of the coal-to-ethylene glycol unit continued to decline slightly. As of July 30, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 57.74%. Among them, the operating load of coal-to-ethylene glycol is 39.06%.
Table 3: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Commissioning status of new equipment: Xinjiang Tianye 600,000 tons /year coal-to-ethylene glycol unit is expected to start feeding methanol next week, and the start-up of the ethylene glycol link is expected to be postponed to mid-to-late August. Sinochem Quanzhou’s 500,000-ton/year MEG new device reverse drive test plan has been postponed to around the end of August. Shanxi Woneng Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.’s new 300,000-ton/year syngas-to-MEG device is expected to be discharged around mid-August. Currently, the LNG co-produced by the device has been discharged.
2PTA inventory
PTA factory inventories have remained stable at 5.5 days for nine consecutive weeks. The inventory of PTA raw materials in polyester plants has remained stable at 10 days for five consecutive weeks. PTA-converted total social inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks. The absolute inventory of PTA is still at the highest level in the same period in the past four years.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
The latest ethylene glycol port inventory on July 27 showed a significant decrease compared with the previous period. Inventory levels are back near where they were two weeks ago. As of July 27, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.481 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from July 27 to August 2, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 214,000 tons, which is a neutral to bullish level. Shipments from the mainstream reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang and Taicang have been unstable recently. The average daily combined shipment volume of the two ports is as low as 5,600 tons/day and as high as 14,650 tons/day. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are still serious.
Requirements
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
Polyester device maintenance High load, the overall load last week was still at a high of 91%, still the second lowest level just below the 2018 level. Among them, the operating rate of polyester filament fell slightly by 0.4% to 74.9%; the load of polyester bottle flakes rebounded by 1.1% to 79%, marking three consecutive weeks of rebound; and the operating rate of direct-spinning polyester staple fiber increased slightly by 0.4% to 94.70%. The operating rate of direct-spun polyester short yarn is still the highest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester filament is basically the lowest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes has rebounded to the second-lowest level only higher than in 2019.
1.2 Polyester inventory
As of last Friday, the average inventory of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 16 days, 16.8 days, and 28.6 days respectively. , FDY stocks increased by 0.5 days from last Friday, POY and DTY fell by 1.5 days and 0.8 days respectively from last Friday. The inventory of polyester staple fiber accumulated to 6.6 days last week, a slight increase of 1.4 days from the previous period. Inventories of polyester bottle flakes have rebounded slightly to levels near 20 days. Polyester staple fiber inventories have rebounded to near the highest level for the same period in previous years; polyester filament and polyester bottle flake inventories have maintained their highest levels for the same period in previous years. The investigation revealed that some large bottle flake factories have negative equity inventories.
2 Terminal situation
Last week, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom and texturing operations started for two consecutive weeks promote. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are at 66% and 77% respectively.
The number of days of gray cloth inventory in sample weaving enterprises in Shengze has continued to rise since 5.25. It is currently 45 days and reached a maximum of 45.5 days at the end of July. The inventory of gray cloth has been reduced again, and an inflection point may appear. This year’s off-season started earlier than in previous years due to the impact of the epidemic, and inventories began to accumulate continuously at the end of May (in previous years, gray fabric inventories did not begin to accumulate until at least late June to early July). The peak season in the second half of the year is approaching, and the inflection point in gray fabric inventory is expected to continue during the peak season. The transaction volume of China Textile City began to be better than the same period in previous years in late July. Pay attention to whether the volume preference is sustainable.
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