Overview:
Outside crude oil rebounded sharply in November, with the monthly increase of the main Brent 01 contract currently reaching 27.58%, and the monthly increase of the main WTI 01 contract currently reaching 26.13%, both of which are the largest increases since June. , among which the monthly increase of U.S. oil exceeded that in May. The main SC crude oil 2101 contract continued to rebound this month following the external market, with a smaller monthly increase of 25.16%.
The epidemic continues to break out in Europe and the United States. The number of new cases in the United States in a single day still exceeded 200,000, with the cumulative number of confirmed cases reaching 13.4543 million as of the reporting period, and the death toll exceeding 270,000. The epidemic situation in India and Brazil is still not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India has reached nearly 9.3526 million.
PTA:
The monthly increase of the main contract of TA2101 was 4.11%. The average internal price of PTA spot was 3,320 yuan/ton on November 27, and the average monthly internal price was approximately 3,189 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 152 yuan from the average of the previous month.
As of the reporting period, the main processing margin of TA has once again widened to 703, and the monthly average futures processing margin is 702, which is still relatively high, narrowing by 65% from the previous month. TA’s spot processing difference slightly increased from 11.27 to 525, and the monthly average spot processing difference was 503, narrowing to 84.5 from the previous month. Xinfengming Dushan Energy Phase 2 2.2 million tons PTA device was put into operation on October 19, and the PTA production capacity base was adjusted to 57.03 million tons starting in November. PTA load fluctuates greatly during the month, with the load increasing significantly in the second half of this month. Polyester load remained high and stable in November.
As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 91.9%. The load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped partially. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are 88% and 94% respectively. It is still the highest level for the same period in history. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in September was 39% lower than the same period last year. In October, there was a pulse-type transaction volume as expected. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year and improved significantly month-on-month. The transaction volume in November was acceptable, but the transaction volume in December may decline. Polyester filament suffered a loss, while staple fiber and bottle flakes made a profit. This month, TA has rebounded in response to cost and demand resonance, and the main force has gradually moved its positions to the 05 contract. In December, it is expected that TA will still face accumulation pressure, and will be weak and volatile. In the long run, costs will rise slowly.
Ethylene glycol:
The monthly increase of the main contract of EG2101 is 3.9%, and the rebound of EG is smaller than that of TA. The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol was 3,808 yuan/ton on November 27, and the average monthly price was about 3,735 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 78.5 yuan from the average last month. The price of coal-based products fell to 3,525 yuan/ton last Friday. The price difference between oil and coal narrowed in the first half of November. Since the second half of the month, the price difference between oil and coal has continued to widen. Ethylene glycol continued to be destocked in November, and the term structure briefly reversed during the month.
As of November 23, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.099 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons from the previous period. Startups of ethylene glycol coal-to-coal plants fell sharply last week. As of November 26, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 59.73%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 39.5%. Increasing overseas supply may delay response. Demand (including speculative demand) continues to be strong, and accumulation expectations have been pushed back.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) The average price in November was US$383.4/ton, a slight decrease of US$7.7/ton from the average price of the previous month. It was US$401.5/ton on November 27. External crude oil rebounded sharply in November. The monthly increase of the main Brent 01 contract has now reached 27.58%, and the monthly increase of the main WTI 01 contract has reached 26.13%. Both are the largest increases since June. Among them, the monthly increase of U.S. oil exceeds that in May. The average price difference between naphtha and Brent this month was US$61.5, which was significantly narrowed by US$24.5 compared with the average value last month. The price difference at the end of the month was less than US$50. The average price difference between naphtha and WTI this month was US$79.4, which was also significantly lower than the average value last month. Narrow by $21, the price difference at the end of the month was less than $70. The average price of PX (cfr China) this month was US$538.3, a decrease of US$1.7 from the average price last month, and the overall fluctuation was limited. The PX-NPT spread still fluctuates at a low level, with an average value of US$156.2 this month, slightly wider than the average value of last month by US$13. PX China’s average monthly operating rate this month was 76.55%, a slight decrease from last month. Asia’s average monthly operating rate this month was 82%, a slight decrease of 2.6% from last month.
2 Changes in costs and profits
The coal production load dropped sharply to around 40% at the end of the month. Prevent losses from continuing to intensify. The average cash flow of externally produced ethylene to ethylene glycol this month was -77 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2 US dollars from the previous month. Naphtha to ethylene glycol maintains a basic breakeven and is slightly profitable. The average cash flow this month is US$18, a slight increase of US$12 from the previous month. The average cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route this month was 1,651 yuan/ton, which was 419 yuan/ton worse than the loss last month.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic installation: Xinfengming Dushan Energy Phase 2 2.2 million tons PTA device was put into operation on October 19, and the PTA production capacity base was adjusted to 57.03 million tons starting in November. Yangzi Petrochemical’s 350,000-ton unit was shut down on 11.3, and restart is pending; Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000-ton unit was inspected on 11.13 and restarted on the night of 11.26, and the load is currently being increased; Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million-ton unit was shut down on 11.17 and restarted around 11.23, currently about 80% , the load is still increasing. The 3.75 million-ton unit of Yishenglian is currently operating at full capacity. PTA’s domestic load rebounded sharply to 90.2%.
Table 1: PTA recent developmentsMajor device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: From November 2020, China’s total ethylene glycol production capacity 15.035 million tons, and the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity is 5.19 million tons. A new 500,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was added. Domestic supply of ethylene glycol continues to decline slightly, and coal production load continues to decline significantly. As of November 26, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 59.73%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 39.5%. Sailbon’s 40,000-ton unit is currently operating at 50%; Far East United’s 500,000-ton unit is operating at a load of less than 40%, which was above 60%; SIA Energy’s 400,000-ton unit was shut down last Saturday for some reason, and last week Five restarts; Red Sifang’s 300,000-ton unit reduced its load to 50% during the week and resumed on Saturday; Xinjiang Tianying’s 150,000-ton unit was shut down for maintenance recently, and is expected to be affected for about five days; the new unit Zhongke Refining and Chemical’s 500,000-ton unit The device is functioning normally.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
PTA monthly average operating rate At around 86%, the monthly output is around 4.09 million tons; the monthly domestic comprehensive load of ethylene glycol is 64.31%, and the monthly output is 805,800 tons. The import volume of ethylene glycol in October was 740,000 tons, and November or less than October , estimated to be around 700,000 tons, and the monthly supply of ethylene glycol is estimated to be 1.5 million tons.
2PTA inventory
The total inventory of TA raw materials increased from 3.17 million tons at the end of October to 3.44 million tons on 11.27, monthly The cumulative inventory reached 270,000 tons, with a cumulative increase of 8.5%.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
As of November 23, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is approximately 109.9 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from November 23 to November 29, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 101,000 tons, with arrivals continuing to be low. Accumulated inventory is expected to be postponed.
The explicit inventory of ethylene glycol in November has been destocked from 1.226 million tons at the end of October to 1.099 million tons. By the end of the month, it may be close to 10,000 tons, and the overall destocking volume may reach nearly 140,000 tons. , basically equivalent to the explicit inventory destocking volume in October.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
The polyester plant continues to be put into operation. Starting from November 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 62.6 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun (supporting the production of polyester filament). As of November 27, preliminary calculations indicate that the domestic polyester comprehensive load is 91.9%. It is expected that the load will still be around 90% in December.
The average monthly polyester load in November was 91.28%, and the average monthly output was 4.7618 million tons, a slight decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous month.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester inventory and profit
As of 11.27, POY, FDY, and DTY equity of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories Inventory is at 11, 12.3, and 13.4 days respectively. POY’s inventory at the end of this month was basically stable compared with the end of last month, FDY’s monthly inventory was slightly depleted by around 20,000 tons, and DTY’s monthly inventory was slightly depleted by 8,000 tons. Filament yarn made a slight profit in the first half of November, but turned into a loss in the second half of the month. The losses basically worsened, and by the end of the month, the loss was about 200 yuan/month.
Polyester staple fiber has been oversold since late October, maintaining negative inventory, with monthly destocking of 14,000 tons. Staple fiber profits have continued to narrow this month, from around 891 yuan at the end of last month to the current 535 yuan.
Recently, bottle flakes are still driven by speculative bargaining demands within and outside the industry and traders’ demand for replenishment. The average monthly price has increased by about 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous month, and profits have continued to increase. By the end of the month, the profit was approximately 285 yuan/ton.
Polyester staple fiber inventory remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester bottle flake inventory remains at the highest level for the same period over the past years; polyester filament inventory is at the equilibrium level for the same period over the past years, except for POY, which is the second highest level over the same period over the past year. .
2 Terminal situation
Last week, the operating rates of looms, texturing, printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline. Among them, the loom operation dropped to 85%, the texturing operation dropped to 93%, and the dyeing factory operation dropped to 92%.
In November, the monthly average load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 88.75%, down 3.5% from the previous month. The comprehensive texturing load remained stable compared with the previous month, and the monthly average load was at a high level of 93.75%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area dropped to 40 days in early November and then rose again to 41.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The transaction volume of China Textile City in September was 39% lower than the same period last year. In October, there was a pulse-type transaction volume as expected. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year and improved significantly month-on-month. Double Eleven transactions were almost not affected by the epidemic. However, there was no peak season in September this year. The transaction volume in November was acceptable, but it weakened significantly at the end of the month. Transaction levels are expected to remain low in December.
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The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area dropped in early November After 40 days, it rose again to 41.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The transaction volume of China Textile City in September was 39% lower than last year. In October, there was a pulse-type transaction volume as scheduled, with the transaction volume 19% lower than last year, and the month-on-month improvement was obvious. Double Eleven transactions were almost unaffected by the epidemic, but there was no peak season in September this year. Transactions in November were acceptable, but significantly weakened at the end of the month, and transaction levels are expected to remain low in December.</p
