On the morning of the 23rd local time, an important oil facility in western Saudi Arabia was attacked by Yemeni Houthi armed forces. This was the second attack on a Saudi oil facility in recent times. The incident not only helped push international oil prices to the highest level since March. It has also made the situation in Yemen, which had originally eased, become tense again.
No matter what this attack is related to, one thing is certain, oil prices will definitely fluctuate accordingly! Oil prices followed the surge, with Brent prices returning to the $46 range again. Oil prices have once again reached the threshold of US$46. If the price can really stabilize above US$46 this time, then the center of crude oil prices will most likely move upward. It may be difficult to see prices below US$40 again.
Brent rose 4.39% on Tuesday
The “attack” incident is undoubtedly the catalyst for the breakthrough of oil prices, so what about the new crown vaccine? The success of the experiment is a shot in the arm for the recovery of crude oil demand. After the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca announced that its new crown vaccine is about 90% effective without any side effects, and plans to start promoting the new crown vaccine next month.
As soon as the news came out, the whole world celebrated. The imminent arrival of the vaccine also means that the economy, crude oil and other series of problems that have been contained by the new coronavirus will be released. The optimistic expectations of the vaccine continue to boost Market sentiment.
Good things are coming one after another. The expectation that OPEC and OPEC+ will maintain production restrictions really makes the crude oil market see the bright side.
The imminent handover of the U.S. president also heralds a new chapter in the United States. Yellen’s intention to serve as the new Treasury Secretary has boosted market sentiment, which means that Biden will spend a lot of money to stimulate the economy. Developments, such as the use of longer lasting and lower interest rate policies.
Stephen Innes, chief global market analyst at axi, said: Recent good news about the effectiveness of vaccine research and development, as well as expectations that OPEC+ will meet at the end of this month to extend the current production cuts for another 3-6 months, continue to drive positive market sentiment. .
Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, said: The energy industry seems to be able to shake off the pain of the epidemic period and ride on the tailwind of the vaccine economy to reach a higher level.
Analysts said that Brent has broken through the resistance range of 46.53-47.41 US dollars, and it is expected that the oil price will break through to 51 US dollars in the future, and even with the current momentum, it can reach 54 US dollars or even higher!
Taking advantage of oil prices and vaccines, will PTA see the light of day by bargain hunting?
Since mid-November, with PTA hitting a new low, coupled with the news about oil prices, domestic and foreign vaccines, and macroeconomic news coming one after another, the bottom-buyers seem to have seen the light again, and the almost extinguished flame of value investment has begun to burn again. The spot price of PTA has begun to rebound. As of November 27, the 01 contract on the market has rebounded from a new low of 300 yuan/ton for the year, and the spot price in East China has increased by 200 yuan/ton.
Since the rise, a very serious and practical question has been faced by investors and industry professionals: Is this round of market rise a rebound or a reversal?
1. Inventory pressure is once again approaching the high level in recent years
Although the PTA processing range has narrowed in November, the current overcapacity situation still remains at Around 500 yuan/ton, the processing range is still good.
Supported by this, the maintenance plan for PTA equipment in November is basically within expectations. The overall average monthly load of domestic PTA is basically maintained at nearly 89%, and the monthly supply is roughly around 4.4 million tons.
In terms of downstream polyester demand, although new polyester equipment is expected to be put into production and some orders for domestic and foreign sales are increasing, due to the excessive inventory backlog in the early stage, the industry’s high inventory pressure is still great, resulting in weaving production The improvement in enthusiasm is not large. The pressure to increase the overall load of polyester in November is still relatively large. The monthly supply of polyester is expected to be roughly around 4.67 million tons.
According to the supply and demand in November, the daily output of PTA increased significantly, while the demand for downstream polyester did not change much. PTA once again accumulated a large inventory of nearly 300,000 tons in November. The daily inventory accumulation throughout the month was mainly concentrated in the second half of the month. , the current social inventory has increased to around 3.6679 million tons, and the inventory pressure is once again approaching the high level in recent years, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, limiting the upside space of the futures market.
2. The pressure on the basis to strengthen is huge
In November, there will be less equipment maintenance. Due to the pressure of old and new goods and storage capacity restrictions, it is difficult to effectively improve the price difference. As of the time of writing, the spot basis is at a 01 contract discount of 180 yuan/ton, and there are many discussions. At present, PTA will continue to accumulate inventory significantly from November to December. Spot pressure has impacted the market. PTA social inventory has not yet seen any relief. The pressure on the basis spread is huge, and the weak structure will continue to be maintained.
Comprehensive consideration: There are indeed many positive events for oil prices, but their durability and upside space remain to be discussed. After all, the vaccine is not a short-term development It can meet the market’s psychological expectations, and the number of new coronavirus infections and deaths continues to hit records. At the same time, although OPEC is expected to reach an extension of its production increase plan, countries such as Libya, Iran, and Venezuela may all conflict.�The current low production capacity has significantly increased crude oil exports, which has impacted the existing crude oil market supply and continued the oversupply of crude oil.
All in all, the positive oil prices have indeed brought optimism to the market, but various uncertainties still exist. The supply and demand in the PTA market are still expected to weaken. The market may continue to weaken before it completely reverses. repeatedly.