Since the end of September, cottonseed and cotton meal have experienced a dramatic journey from “full of confidence” to “confidence collapse”. To make matters worse, with the large-scale import of U.S. soybeans and Brazilian soybeans, cotton prices have begun to decline.
Shoot yourself in the foot ——Meibou has the most powerful competitor and is no longer unique
Trump’s The trade strategy with China has brought great disruption to China’s soybean imports, and China’s soybeans have been forced to turn to South America and other markets for sources. Under Trump’s mastery over the past few years, Brazilian soybeans have gotten rid of the dilemma of being the second largest exporter of soybeans to China, surpassing the United States in one fell swoop and becoming China’s largest source of soybean imports. In 2018, Brazil accounted for 75% of China’s soybean imports, reaching an astonishing figure of 66.1 million tons, a volume never reached by U.S. soybeans.
As snipe and clam compete, fishermen benefit – China tastes the sweetness of being the largest buyer for the first time
“Outshines others” in the United States “In this era, China, as the largest buyer, has no say. The reason is that China has too few soybean source countries and is choked by the United States. Things are different now. Brazil and Argentina are rising rapidly. China’s sources of soybeans are diversified. It is no longer dependent on any one country, and its voice has greatly increased. More importantly, if the United States and Brazil supply China together, the international soybean supply and demand pattern will be reversed. The original short supply will become an oversupply, and China will have the greatest say as a super buyer.
When gods fight, the masses suffer – cotton meal may be on the decline
American and Brazilian soybeans also have another characteristic. That is the complementary nature of the listing cycles. If we purchase more U.S. beans now, Brazilian beans will face sales pressure when they come on the market. Similarly, if more Brazilian soybeans are imported in the first half of the year, U.S. soybeans will face sales pressure in the second half of the year. In the market, the only way to relieve sales pressure is to reduce prices. It is conceivable that as U.S. soybean exports to China increase, Brazilian soybeans will inevitably achieve sales through price reductions in the future.
As the soybeans of the United States and Brazil compete, cotton meal as a substitute for soybeans faces two dilemmas. First, there is no shortage of soybean meal, and cotton meal will become available as a substitute. Secondly, soybean meal is convenient to purchase, the supply is stable, and there is no need for excessive inventory or formula adjustment.
Cottonseed and cotton meal currently have two problems: first, the price is too high, and ginners and oil mills with stocks are stubbornly willing to raise prices; second, the downstream cannot Starting, price cuts will not stimulate downstream purchasing willingness. The industry is placing more hope on the continued rise in bean prices and the improvement of the macro economy, but reality does not support this wishful thinking. High bean prices are unsustainable, and Brazilian soybeans are just around the corner; and with the oversupply of soybeans, cottonseed and cotton meal must Returning to its basic positioning of winning the market at low prices, the Spring Festival to May are key nodes. </p