After the Spring Festival holiday, the trend of polyester raw materials was like a “roller coaster”: from the end of February to the beginning of March, polyester raw materials continued to rise sharply, driven by rising oil prices and rising optimism in the entire energy and chemical sector, with ethylene glycol reaching its highest level. It is approaching 6,300 yuan/ton, setting a new high since the futures were launched; in the past week, the market has experienced a “sudden change”. Although oil prices have rebounded after falling for two consecutive days, polyester raw materials have still fallen sharply.
Falling from high altitude, prices collapsed! The crude oil market experienced another huge shock
The dilapidated house was hit by continuous rain, and the leaky ship was hit again! On March 18, while U.S. stocks were plunging, the crude oil market was shaken again, with U.S. oil falling below $60.
According to data, as of the close of March 18 local time, the main NYMEX crude oil futures contract fell 7.77% to US$59.61/barrel, the largest single-day decline since June last year. ; As of 6:00 on March 19, Beijing time, the main contract of ICE Brent oil futures fell 7.22% to US$62.69 per barrel.
Analysts said that multiple factors led to the collapse of the crude oil market.
First of all, U.S. stocks fell overnight and the U.S. dollar strengthened, reflecting market concerns about inflation. This concern has also been transmitted to the commodity market.
Secondly, U.S. crude oil inventories rose for the fourth consecutive week, suppressing oil prices. According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on March 17, local time, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.396 million barrels in the week ended March 12, marking the fourth consecutive week of increases; refined oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased.
Finally, the severe situation of the new crown epidemic in overseas countries has reduced market expectations for crude oil demand. According to Xinhua News Agency, many European countries including Spain, Denmark, Norway, Germany, France, and Italy have stopped vaccinations with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine due to concerns about possible side effects.
At the same time, 16 provinces in France implemented a “lockdown” for one month. On the evening of March 18, local time, French Prime Minister Castet said at a press conference that the current development of the epidemic was obvious. Accelerate, the latest data on March 18 shows that there were nearly 35,000 new confirmed cases in the past 24 hours, and the number of confirmed cases increased by 23% in a week. France is experiencing the third wave of the epidemic. Castet announced that starting from midnight on March 19, 16 provinces in France with severe epidemic situations will implement a “lockdown” for one month.
Crude oil plummets, increasing pressure on the polyester industry
Crude oil, as an anchor for bulk commodities, prices A sharp decline will surely trigger a series of chain reactions for petrochemical products. This has caused a significant cost drag on the polyester raw material market. On the 19th, with the collapse of cost support, both PTA and ethylene glycol prices fell significantly.
Downstream companies lack confidence in the continued rise of the polyester market. Although cash flow has increased significantly recently, polyester companies all lament: No matter how high profits are, there are no buyers. For enterprises, they hope to stabilize the market by stabilizing quotations. For downstream companies, they also hope that the market will be stable to obtain orders. In fact, for most weaving manufacturers, they do not want raw material prices to rise and fall sharply, and the sharp rise will increase the price. Due to the cost of raw materials, high-priced raw materials cannot be exchanged for high-priced gray fabrics, and the profit margins of weaving manufacturers are directly “squeezed.” It is not a happy thing if the raw materials have been falling for a long time. After all, customers are very keen on the market nowadays. If the raw materials have been falling for several days in a row, they will go to the suppliers to negotiate the price. However, they do not know that the gray cloth is produced with high-priced raw materials in the early stage. The manufacturer does not lower the price, but “blood”. ” and “meat”!
Although the vision was the same, the result was defeated in reality. Under the pressure of traders with low-priced goods, companies had no choice but to start lowering their quotations, while downstream companies believed that the price would be lowered. The downward trend has been torn open, and the wait-and-see mood is getting stronger.
Under the constraints of buying up but not down, polyester raw materials are likely to fall again, and the polyester market is like an icehouse this week, with few goods coming from the downstream. Driven by the sluggish production and sales in the past half month, the inventory of polyester companies has shown an upward trend. The average inventory of companies has risen to around ten days, which is one week higher than before the holiday. After excluding companies with empty orders before the holiday, it is not difficult to find that most of them Enterprise inventories began to accumulate, and a few enterprises began to feel the pressure of accumulated inventory. Nowadays, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 19-27 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 8-10 days, FDY inventory is around 13-23 days, and DTY inventory is around 14-27 days.
At present, polyester raw materials are facing excess pressure, and the processing difference is far worse than in the past. In the past period, the PTA processing difference has been maintained in a low range. From a cost perspective, polyester filament yarns still have room to fall by 800-1,000 yuan. However, the polyester filament yarn industry is currently highly concentrated and the bargaining power of leading polyester factories has increased significantly, so POY may have strong support. But even so, it is a fact that polyester factory inventories have depreciated significantly. </p
