After suffering a heavy setback, international oil prices rebounded slightly
After suffering a heavy setback, international oil prices rebounded slightly. At yesterday’s close, the settlement price of WTI April crude oil futures closed up $1.42/barrel, or 2.37%, at $61.42/barrel, a cumulative decline of 6.38% this week. Brent May crude oil futures closed up $1.25/barrel, or 1.97%, at $64.53/barrel, down 6.77% this week. The 2105 crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.91% in night trading at 392.30 yuan/barrel.
On Friday, crude oil futures prices fell sharply, with the main contract SC2105 hitting the limit. Wang Xiao, assistant director of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the global crude oil market fell sharply on Thursday, but the market stabilized after some risk sentiment was released. The external crude oil even rebounded slightly from lows, but there were big differences in the high-level strategic dialogue between China and the United States on Friday. , market risk aversion rose rapidly, various asset prices suffered heavy losses at the same time, and oil prices quickly fell to their limit in late trading.
“Judging from the current market situation, we believe that the correction in international crude oil prices is to a greater extent a reversal of the previous excessively high and rapid increases. This situation is combined with the resurgence of the European epidemic. The outbreak and the weakening of many current macro sentiments have led to a sharp correction in crude oil. But in fact, there are no particularly clear sudden negative events in terms of fundamentals.” Wang Xiao said that under the current circumstances of OPEC+’s continued production cuts, crude oil will still There is a very strong price support from the supply level, so it may be possible to see oil prices “squeeze water” out of the market after the oil prices rise too high, but it is difficult to see a sustained deep decline in oil prices. However, Wang Xiao believes that at the moment when U.S. bond yields are soaring, will it be big inflation that will force the Federal Reserve to turn “hawkish” and tighten liquidity, which has caused extremely uncertain changes, which indeed gives a lot of confidence in inflation expectations. There is greater pressure on funds for macro hedging.
Nanhua Futures energy and chemical analyst Zhang Zhengze said that from a fundamental point of view, the crude oil production lost by the extreme cold weather in the U.S. market is gradually recovering, but the recovery of downstream refinery operations is slow. As a result, U.S. crude oil inventories continue to increase. In the non-U.S. market, due to the increasing uncertainty about vaccination, short-term demand for crude oil may be reshaped, and there is also negative news on the supply side. Mexico plans to restore crude oil production from 1.6 million barrels per day to 2 million barrels per day. There are concerns in the market similar to Iran’s increase in supply.
“With the acceleration of COVID-19 vaccination, the global epidemic situation has improved. However, some time ago, AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine was considered to have adverse reactions such as severe blood clots after injection. It has been urgently suspended by more and more European countries, affecting the speed of vaccination and setting back previously optimistic expectations.” Chen Dong, senior analyst at Baocheng Futures, added. Coupled with the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields, the anchor of global asset pricing, and the strength of the U.S. dollar, U.S. dollar-priced commodities represented by crude oil have subsequently been suppressed.
According to Chen Dong, with the implementation of the new round of fiscal stimulus policies in the United States and the realization of macroeconomic bullish expectations, against the background of rising inflation expectations, the yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have gradually increased. Enter the ascending channel. After entering March, the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond yield entered a “surging” mode, rising above 1.5%, 1.6% and 1.7% consecutively, hitting a 14-month high. This triggered a collective correction of high-valued assets around the world, and the foreign exchange market, commodity market and the U.S. stock market were affected to varying degrees.
In addition, Zhang Zhengze said that the net long positions of European and American crude oil funds and retail investors have also declined to varying degrees. It can also be found from the recent weakening of the monthly difference between WTI and Brent that crude oil is at the current price The position has insufficient upward momentum and is at risk of falling sharply.
In general, in Wang Xiao’s view, the support below crude oil is still solid, and the possibility of a sustained deep decline is unlikely. The medium-term fundamentals are still good, but the short-term market’s expected trading on the stability of the political situation in the global market may cause prices to over-correct, causing prices to deviate downward from the fundamentals. It is recommended that everyone pay attention to the risk of holding positions. Zhang Zhengze also believes that in March and April, with OPEC+ roughly maintaining the current scale of production cuts and U.S. shale oil unable to significantly resume production, there will be a supply gap. The current crude oil market has not completely turned negative. The rise turned into a oscillating market. He suggested that attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting on April 1, when OPEC+’s new output plan will provide new guidance for the direction of oil prices.
The energy and chemical sector went down across the board
With the overnight international crude oil futures prices falling sharply the day before, The 2105 domestic crude oil futures contract fell by the daily limit this Friday, and the downstream energy and chemical sector also suffered a collective plunge this Friday. The prices of most varieties were under pressure, and major contracts such as PTA fell by the daily limit.
As for refined oil, Li Wanying, a senior energy and chemical analyst at Donghai Research Institute, said that as a direct downstream of crude oil, the price center of gravity of the cost oil sector has also been driven upward by costs. Recently, Asphalt and fuel oil prices also followed the decline in oil prices. From a fundamental perspective, as of March 18, the wholesale transaction price of marine 180cst market in North China has dropped particularly conspicuously, ranging from 4400-4420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100-120 yuan/ton from last week. The shipping coastal bulk index and export container index are not ideal, domestic demand continues to show no improvement, and vaccination in Europe is not going smoothly. News such as France’s reiterated lockdown are not conducive to the recovery of demand in the ship fuel market. In the short term, the overall performance of fuel oil is weak.
Longzhong Information data shows that asphaltInventories totaled 1.695 million tons, an increase of 1.7% month-on-month and 8.0% year-on-year. Affected by the rainy weather in the south, overall demand was slightly light. Therefore, Li Wanying believes that the recent cost oil demand market is still in a slow recovery period, and prices are still highly sensitive to costs, and are expected to oscillate with crude oil prices.
In terms of polyester, Li Wanying mentioned that due to the impact of low processing fees, PTA has recently increased its maintenance equipment. Although 2021 is the big year for PTA to be put into production, there has been some improvement in the supply and demand of PTA recently. However, due to the relatively close relationship between crude oil and PTA, the adjustment in oil prices has caused the price of PTA to follow downwards. Regarding the market outlook, she believes that low processing fees will still provide certain support for the PTA market, but the polyester market sentiment is easily affected by oil price fluctuations, and it is recommended that investors pay close attention to subsequent oil price changes and the follow-up of downstream orders.
In terms of polyolefins, Huarong Rongda Futures analyst Liu Shanshan said that from this week’s perspective, the overall The downward adjustment started is also the result of many factors. First of all, the positive macro and fundamental factors in the early stage have been exhausted, and the hype in the export market has declined; secondly, there is obvious resistance to high domestic prices in the downstream, and it is difficult to increase the volume; thirdly, it is more difficult to pull long funds on the market than in the early stage, because the basis difference provides room for positive arbitrage , the high level has attracted the intervention of arbitrageurs. At the same time, as the basis has strengthened from weak, arbitrageurs are gradually unlocking the spot, and the pressure on hedging companies in the industry has eased; finally, the fall in external crude oil prices is also one of the factors driving the decline of the entire olefins sector. one.
“Inventories in the overall industry chain are concentrated in the middle end, and upstream inventories are not high, so the willingness to raise prices is relatively obvious. Only after futures fell, they began to actively lower ex-factory prices. And downstream The inventory has been low since the Spring Festival, but due to the high prices of raw materials, it is mainly based on rigid demand, and most of them are to complete the remaining orders in the first quarter.” Liu Shanshan told reporters that high intermediate inventory is mostly hedged in futures. After the basis strengthened this time, the goods locked in the futures began to be unlocked. As the futures price fell rapidly and corrected, the enthusiasm for spot shipments was affected. The downstream mainly took a wait-and-see attitude, but the profits on the futures side have returned. As long as the spot industry If the chain transmission is smooth, industrial hedging funds may be unlocked faster than expected.
As for the olefins market outlook, Liu Shanshan suggested paying attention to whether futures prices can make up for the gap left by the rapid rise after the Spring Festival. “All in all, it is a good thing that the entire industrial chain is well conducted and the inventory can turn around. In the short term, the early growth will be restored.” Liu Shanshan said. </p
