Introduction: Terminal transmission continues to be poor, raw material inventories in downstream spinning mills are still high, and buying enthusiasm in the polyester staple fiber market continues to be low during the week. In addition, there are too many low-priced supplies in the market, especially the slow return of basis differences, which has led to some points Low prices and low supply of goods have dragged down market prices. Affected by the downward atmosphere, market transactions continued to be light, futures and spot prices mutually negative feedback, and the market atmosphere became increasingly depressed. In the short term, although short fiber prices have basically given up the gains after the Spring Festival, it is still difficult for the market to turn around in the absence of new terminal orders.
The overestimation of this year’s demand resulted in crazy replenishment in all aspects in the early stage. However, after the Spring Festival, the arrival of new orders at terminals was far less than expected, and the situation of sufficient stocking in all aspects gradually It was revealed that a large number of low-priced supplies hit the market, leading to a continued decline since March.
Price and profit changes of polyester staple fiber and related products since the Spring Festival (unit: yuan/ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information
As shown in the above figure, compared with other varieties, the decline of polyester staple fiber has been significantly higher than that of other varieties, and has even basically fallen back. to the level before the Spring Festival. In the later period, PX will continue to maintain a tight balance in the short term, so it is difficult for PX-N to be further compressed, and PTA spot processing fees continue to be low, so the next trend of oil will be the key to affecting the trends of PX and PTA. The recent surge in U.S. bond yields will be a negative for crude oil and commodities in the short term. In addition, Sino-US relations and the severe epidemic situation in many European countries will also have a negative impact on commodity demand. In the short term, the weakness of oil will still have a negative impact on the polyester market. Forming a big negative; although the spot processing fee of polyester staple fiber has dropped significantly, it is still running at the level of 1500-1600 yuan/ton, which is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years, so the cost is also weak. Will continue to contain the polyester staple fiber market.
Direct spinning polyester staple fiber inventory change trend chart:
And From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of cotton staple fiber has basically returned to normal in the near future. The devices that affect the change in staple fiber operating rates in the short term are all hollow and low-melting point devices, which have little impact on the supply of cotton staple fiber. However, due to the intermediate cost of cotton staple fiber, Affected by the fact that merchant inventories are still high, supply pressure on factories is gradually increasing. From the terminal point of view, the raw material stocks of downstream yarn companies are mostly available until early or mid-April, while new terminal orders are slow to be placed. Spinners are still cautiously waiting to see short fiber, and short-term demand support is still weak.
So in the context of poor terminal conduction, it is still difficult for the short fiber market to usher in the dawn. However, we have mentioned in previous articles that sooner or later, low-priced supply will be gradually digested, and downstream raw material inventories are also gradually depleted. Currently, the industry has certain expectations for the issuance of new terminal orders in early April, so short-term weakness does not mean long-term weakness. The market still needs to pay attention to the new situation of terminal orders (especially foreign trade orders). </p
