New cotton is coming on the market one after another, the supply side is under great pressure, and cotton prices are weakening
A few days ago, news of new flowers blooming came from various places. The open-scale price of seed cotton in Shandong, Hebei and other places in the Yellow River Basin is 3.0 to 3.2 yuan/jin, slightly lower than last year’s level. As for the Xinjiang fine-staple cotton and long-staple cotton that the market is concerned about, as of now, most areas in southern Xinjiang and northern Xinjiang have opened scales. Among them, the price of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is at 6.5 yuan/kg, which is a lot lower than the price of 7.0 yuan/kg in mid-August.
A cotton farmer in Aksu, Xinjiang lamented: “I didn’t expect cotton prices to be so low this year!” Cotton farmers are worried that when a large amount of seed cotton comes on the market in mid-September, the price of seed cotton will drop below 6.0 yuan/kg.
Contrary to the soaring trend of cotton prices at the beginning of this year, my country’s cotton futures prices have reached a high point since mid-July and then retreated, with prices falling by 15%.
Increased supply and weak demand are the fundamental logic behind the weakening of cotton prices.
First of all, since mid-July, the amount of state cotton reserves has increased, and market expectations have been alleviated, resulting in a decline in the transaction rate and transaction price of selling reserves. On August 8, the Ministry of Finance announced that the cotton storage period will be extended from the end of August to the end of September. The time is basically in line with the launch of new flowers, and the spot market’s concerns about the tight supply and demand of cotton during the lean period have been alleviated. The transaction rate and transaction price of state-owned cotton have declined and adjusted. The current transaction rate is basically stable at about 60%, which is far from the previous 100% transaction rate. The transaction price is also running weakly. In early September, the price of selling reserves at a discount of 3128 was around 14,100 yuan/ton. This situation puts pressure on the futures market.
Secondly, the output of major cotton producing countries is expected to increase, adding pressure on the supply side. The supply and demand report of the US Department of Agriculture in August showed that the planting area, yield and output of US cotton in 2016/17 are expected to have definitely rebounded compared with the same period last year. The US cotton production is expected to increase, and the overall market is under pressure. The report shows that the US cotton planting area in 2016/17 is expected to be 10.02 million acres, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the yield is 800 pounds/acre, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; the output is 15.88 million bales, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%.
At the same time, cotton is growing well in all major producing areas in my country. The cotton areas in the Yangtze River Basin have entered the flowering and boll-bearing period. The cotton peaches at the bottom of some cotton fields in the Yellow River Basin have spun out and can be picked sporadically in early September. In Xinjiang’s Kashgar and Turpan regions, A small amount of seed cotton has been put on the market one after another, and cotton companies have purchased it sporadically. It is estimated that the large-scale cotton weighing will be opened in mid-to-late September.
Again, from the downstream demand side analysis, the international cotton textile workwear industry has not seen a significant improvement trend this year. Against the background of economic slowdown, the overall demand in the fabric workwear industry is weak, and the upstream cotton yarn supply is generally in excess.
In addition, since January this year, the price of international cotton yarn has been higher than that of domestic yarn. The price of the two was once upside down by 800 yuan/ton. The price advantage of imports is no longer good, making many people accustomed to using imported yarns. of customers turned to domestic yarn. However, in this round of price decline, the price of imported yarn has fallen more rapidly than that of domestic yarn, and the price advantage of domestic yarn has been lost. As of August 25, the price of domestic and foreign cotton yarn was 540 yuan/ton. Due to the high price sensitivity of downstream customers, the outlook for domestic cotton yarn demand is not optimistic.
At present, the economic growth rate is 2.5%, which is the lowest level in the past 40 years, and the low growth trend will continue for a long time. The tepid terminal demand for cotton textile workwear is the epitome of this. Against the background of weak overall demand, my country’s cotton textile demand will be even more injured.
Judging from the import situation of work clothes in the United States, the import of work clothes in the United States has been declining in the past two years.Currently in a tepid state, the import of pure cotton workwear continues to be weak. New data shows that from January to June this year, the import of work clothes into the United States was in poor condition. Among them, the import volume of pure cotton work clothes, whether from China or countries and regions outside China, declined year-on-year, with -2.67% and -2.67% respectively. -2.63%.
From the perspective of the Chinese market, the terminal consumption of fabric workwear in my country has been sluggish in the past two years. As economic growth continues to slow down, various economic risks become apparent and real estate loans hit new highs, household income and expenditure will be severely squeezed, and the downturn in my country’s fabric workwear terminal consumer market will continue.
However, considering the background of continued destocking in the cotton market in 2016/17, excluding the inventory decline caused by China’s state cotton reserve, the international cotton inventory to consumption ratio is about 45%, which is slightly normal. low level. Coupled with the easing of interest rate hike expectations in the United States due to poor economic data, the dollar weakened, driving up international commodity prices including cotton. From this perspective, the momentum and space for the cotton market to continue to decline are also limited.
–National, Northwest University functions Fabric supplier,Professional fabric protection expert for more than ten years. Anti-static fabric, anti-static cloth, anti-static fabric, anti-static work clothes, anti-static work clothes, fire-proof fabric, fire-proof cloth supplier, fire-proof and high-temperature resistant cloth, fire-proof cloth, fire-proof cloth manufacturer, radiation-proof cloth, radiation protection Cloth, oil-resistant and water-repellent fabric.
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