In 2019, corporate operations have been relatively passive. It is a foregone conclusion that prices will overall decline during the year. It is expected that after mid-December, attention will need to be paid to the advance pre-sale operations of the supply produced during the Spring Festival next year and the price points at that time.
As we all know, synthetic fibers are basically crude oil derivatives, and the price trend has a certain positive correlation with international crude oil futures. In January 2016, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was 32 US dollars/barrel, which was also The lowest in history, and the current average price in November 2019 is 62 US dollars / barrel, a year-on-year increase of 93.75%, and the current monthly average price of polyester staple fiber is 6753 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 8.29% compared with the average price in January 2016, so it is It is not difficult to see that the profits of the entire PX-PTA-PET chain may have been threatened, so the industry price is somewhat attractive.
Although the price of viscose staple fiber is truly “historically low”, judging from the dissolving pulp, the main cost of viscose staple fiber, the current monthly average price is 5,300 yuan/ton, which is lower than that in January 2015. The historical low fell by 10.92% year-on-year, while viscose staple fiber fell by 7.69% from the low in January 2015.
Although the price of caustic soda, another main raw material, is 34.59% higher than that in January 2015, the market has paid attention to the price changes of such auxiliary materials. The price of viscose staple fiber is on the low side. However, the upstream raw materials and downstream rayon yarn have hit a record low at the same time, and the impact of the term “historical low” on the viscose staple fiber market has been greatly reduced.
In addition, the products related to viscose staple fiber that have a certain intuitive influence are Zheng Cotton and pulp. However, the futures trend of the two has been tepid. Therefore, industry insiders are not optimistic about viscose staple fiber. The procurement is judged more based on its own market experience. If its own yarn is not easy to sell, it will not be harvested. At the same time, in a year dominated by buyers, the operation of viscose staple fiber is really difficult.
Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn industry average profit comparison table from 2015 to 2019
The market price and profit situation of viscose staple fiber has steadily improved from 2015 to 2017. In 2018, the industry’s expansion capacity was stronger than the demand growth rate, resulting in an imbalance in the market supply and demand structure. Early profit-taking, in accordance with the order According to the daily viscose staple fiber market price and cost price calculation, the average profit of enterprises’ actual trading from January to October 2019 was about -1,339 yuan/ton, which is the lowest profit level in the past five years. Compared with the industry chain profit analysis and comparison , the profit situation of rayon yarn has shown a positive trend since 2017. Against the backdrop of imbalance between supply and demand in the viscose staple fiber industry, in order to ensure actual shipments, production and sales, downstream bargaining and price reduction capabilities are relatively strong.
The production capacity of China’s viscose staple fiber industry has increased during the same period, and the production capacity gap between enterprises is huge. As of now, the production capacity of a high-end enterprise is about 1.1 million tons, while the production capacity of domestic enterprises is less than 100,000 tons. The voice and influence in market pricing are more skewed towards powerful enterprises, and from the perspective of actual enterprise operations, each enterprise operates based on its own actual conditions such as orders, inventory, funds, etc., and there are certain differences in pace.
Therefore, the introduction of a new policy by a certain company will inevitably interfere with the operating rhythm of other companies. For example, some companies have recently held unexecuted orders, and during the same period, some companies have sold goods at a profit, and the center of gravity of market prices has loosened. , will make it more difficult to fulfill the remaining orders. It can also be seen that under the situation of market supply exceeding demand, the competition among enterprises for market demand share has also become fierce. </p
