1 Research background description
Looking at the year, due to the influence of external news and the falling market price of polyester raw materials, pure polyester yarn after a round of falling market, T32S mainstream The price is 10,900, which has dropped to the lowest level this year. Judging from data from previous years, the current price is basically the same as the price at the beginning of 2016.
Recently, the raw material market has stopped falling and stabilized, coupled with the recovery in demand in Egypt and other places, triggering foreign traders to concentrate on stocking up. The recovery in production and sales of textile companies has not been enough to drive a market rebound. However, the demand for domestic sales has not improved significantly at this time, and the price pressure on the market is obvious. Will the trend of pure polyester yarn in the later period be stable and rise, supported by foreign trade, or will it further fall to the lowest level in five years? We surveyed some industry players in this regard.
2 Current status of pure polyester yarn market
In September, the mainstream price of pure polyester yarn was weak and stable. At the close of trading, the ring-spun T32S short-term delivery price including tax in Fujian was concentrated at 10800-10900; the ring-spun T21S ex-factory price including tax in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was concentrated at 13000-13200 tax-included ex-factory price for vortex spinning T30S in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions; Ring spinning T40S factory price including tax is concentrated at 11600-11700. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
Judging from the raw material market, the current average price of polyester staple fiber in Fujian is 6,800. Compared with the historical low in five years, the difference was 575 from 6225 in December 2015, and the average price of T32S was 10,900. Compared with the historical low in five years, the difference was 1250 from 9650 on December 23, 2015. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
The price of pure polyester yarn in Fujian is at a historical low during the year (Unit: Yuan/ton)
3 Market Mentality Survey
Figure 1 Mentality Survey of People in the Pure Polyester Yarn Industry
According to the survey, more than half of the market participants predict that pure polyester yarn will not fall below the historical level within five years. Low position. 26% of market participants predict that pure polyester yarn will fall below the historical low within five years, and the remaining 21% have a wait-and-see attitude and are more cautious.
The views of companies that predict that they will not fall below new lows:
First of all, the current mainstream average transaction price of recycled polyester staple fiber is 6,400 , with a price difference of 200 from virgin polyester staple fiber. If virgin polyester staple fiber continues to decline, it will replace part of the recycled polyester staple fiber market. Considering that GRS certified recycled polyester staple fiber will become a trend in the future, the price of recycled polyester staple fiber will support the bottom. The downward space of polyester staple fiber is limited.
Secondly, from the perspective of the polyester market, PTA processing fees have been reduced to a relatively reasonable range. Although ethylene glycol is expected to expand production, the current trend is relatively strong. According to the price of 4200 this year, there are still There is a certain space. Although the increase in production capacity of polyester raw materials is one of the factors affecting the price decline, there is instability and uncertainty, and the debt ratio of polyester factories has increased significantly. Enterprises will also adjust production and supply restrictions to continue operating at a loss.
Thirdly, the capital-guaranteed processing fee for pure polyester yarn has increased compared with five years ago, and there is a certain bottom line for yarn companies to operate at a loss. In recent years, labor, environmental protection, financial and other costs have all increased. Although insufficient demand and profit losses cannot prevent the price from falling, when the bottom line of pure polyester yarn losses is hit, the operating rate will gradually shrink, forcing market prices to rise.
Views on companies that predict that they will fall below new lows:
One: PX, PTA, B2 Both alcohol and polyester staple fiber production capacity are expected to be put into production in the future. Under the pressure of oversupply and the reduction of PTA processing fees for newly put into production equipment, polyester staple fiber will fall below a new low and drag down the price of pure polyester yarn to continue downward.
Second: Downstream demand continues to be weak, inventories in some areas have reached high levels, and some sold supplies have been as low as the mainstream average price of 300-400 in the market. Taking T32S as an example, the processing fee has reached 3900. , has been lower than the industry’s breakeven processing fee range of 4100-4200. In order to maintain operations, companies will adjust the mark ratio to reduce raw material costs and increase profits, so pure polyester yarn will also fall below historical lows. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
The expansion of polyester raw material production capacity and the reduction of processing fees for newly commissioned PTA production equipment will become factors affecting the downward trend of polyester staple fiber prices in the future. From the demand side, the off-season market near the end of the year highlights that demand is gradually declining, and the risk of pure polyester yarn accumulation has increased. In addition, foreign trade orders have improved slightly due to the recent bargaining mentality. It may be expected to digest the concentrated replenishment before the end of the year in advance, which is negative for pure polyester yarn. market. However, taking into account the bottom line of pure polyester yarn losses and the debt ratio of polyester factories, it is expected that by the beginning of 2020, polyester staple fiber will fall by 300-400 to around 6200, and it is more likely to fall below the five-year low of 6225. However, pure polyester yarn is expected to be at a historical low. There is room to fall by 1,000, and it is difficult to reach the bottom line of the deficit, and it may fluctuate between 10,400-10,500. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
4 Market Mentality Survey Samples
Sample Description of this Market Mentality Survey: Survey Sample There are a total of 28 enterprises, including 20 pure polyester yarn manufacturers, 6 traders and 2 weaving enterprises. </p
