Breaking news continues this week, including the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the British election, Sino-US trade, and many other major events. The US stock market panic index VIX has soared to 15.77, and safe-haven assets are waiting for the “boots to fall.” “.
The critical time for Sino-US trade negotiations is approaching, and another big news has come out. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. tariff plan originally scheduled for December 15 may be postponed. Stimulated by this factor, European stock markets, which had plummeted, stabilized and rebounded. U.S. stock futures also quickly turned red, and the panic index once plunged.
According to the December 2019 supply and demand monthly report released by the USDA, the adjustment of the report data is very limited. Among them, the USDA continues to lower the U.S. cotton production and China’s consumption, and the U.S. soybean and corn supply and demand data have not yet been revised. No adjustments are made, and global data adjustments are basically within expectations. The report results have little impact on CBOT market trends and fail to provide directional guidance. The market will wait for data guidance from the final output and supply and demand report in January. Last night, CBOT soybeans rebounded for the sixth consecutive day. China has recently increased the number of U.S. soybean import quotas exempt from tariffs. Optimism about the prospects of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations has increased and continues to provide price support. The December estimate for U.S. cotton production in 2019/2020 is reduced by 611,000 bales from the previous month, mainly due to a decrease of 500,000 bales in Texas and a decrease in ending stocks of 600,000 to 5.5 million bales. The season average farm price for upland cotton also remained unchanged at 61 cents per pound.
In the crude oil market, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its international oil price expectations for this year and next: it has raised its 2019 WTI crude oil price forecast to US$56.74/barrel (November is expected to be US$56.45/barrel), raising the 2020 forecast to US$55.01/barrel (previously expected to be US$54.60/barrel). The 2019 Brent crude oil price forecast is raised to $63.93/barrel (November is expected to be $63.59/barrel), and the 2020 forecast is raised to $60.51/barrel (previously expected to be $60.10/barrel).
In addition, there are new developments in Trump’s impeachment case. Last night, the U.S. House of Representatives announced the articles of impeachment against Trump. According to reports, U.S. President Trump faces two articles of impeachment in the House of Representatives. One article of impeachment is a charge of abuse of power, and the other article of impeachment is that Trump obstructed Congress.
As of the close, the U.S. S&P 500 index fell 0.11%, the European Stoxx50 index fell 0.08%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.20%, WTI crude oil rose 0.31%, and Brent crude oil rose 0.17%. London copper rose 0.17% and gold rose 0.19%. U.S. soybeans rose 0.33%, U.S. soybean meal rose 0.07%, U.S. soybean oil rose 0.41%, U.S. sugar rose 0.98%, U.S. cotton rose 0.70%, the CRB index rose 0.55%, and the BDI index fell 1.48%.
China-US trade negotiations are approaching a critical point
According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. tariff plan originally scheduled for December 15 may be postponed. Stimulated by this factor, European stock markets, which had plummeted, stabilized and rebounded. U.S. stock futures also quickly turned red, and the panic index once plunged.
As early as mid-August this year, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) issued an announcement that the Trump administration would postpone the planned start in September of approximately 300 billion U.S. dollars, including notebook computers. Certain Chinese products, including computers and mobile phones, are subject to a 10% tariff. At that time, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative stated in a statement that the specific time for additional tariffs on some products was postponed to December 15, including computers, mobile phones, monitors, game consoles, and some footwear and apparel products. Certain products will be removed from the tariff list based on “health, safety, national security and other factors” and will not be subject to the 10% additional tariff.
According to the Futures Daily reporter, the list of additional tariffs at that time was split into two, that is, the “list of Chinese products involving US$300 billion” was split into two lists. , the main commodities with deferred taxation totaled US$158.3 billion, accounting for 59%, mainly concentrated in motors, electrical equipment and their parts (HS85, US$62.5 billion, accounting for 74%), machines, mechanical equipment and their parts (HS84, 42.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 74%), toys (HS95, 21.9 billion US dollars, accounting for 82%), shoes and boots (HS6.4, 6.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 48%) and other product categories. It is worth noting that although iPhones, iPads, laptops and Apple Mac series will not be subject to additional tariffs before December, some smartwatches, fitness trackers, smart speakers and Bluetooth headsets in the September 1 list have been Impressively listed, this means that Apple HomePod smart speakers, AirPods/Beats headphones and Apple Watch smart watch products are also left within the scope of taxation on September 1.
The market is waiting for the Fed’s interest rate decision to “fall on the ground”
This This week, many major events such as the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the British election, and Sino-US trade will hit one after another, and the market will remain cautious before then. According to the latest data from CME’s “Fed Watch”: the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate in the 1.50%-1.75% range in December is 97.8%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.2%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in the 1.50%-1.75% range by January next year is 91.4%, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 6.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate increase is 2.1%.
CMC Markets market analyst Margaret Yang Yan said that both trade issues and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be factors affecting gold prices. “If the Fed is more hawkish, gold prices will fall. But if…��Announced two articles of impeachment against President Trump, accusing him of abuse of power and obstruction of congressional investigations.
Democrat Jerry Nadler, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said at a press conference that day that investigations showed that Trump pressured the Ukrainian government to seek intervention in the United States In the 2020 presidential election, this was “exploiting his power to obtain improper personal interests”; Trump put himself above the law, “unprecedented” and “indiscriminately” defied the impeachment investigation, and obstructed congressional investigations. Nadler said Trump’s actions undermined the U.S. Constitution and the integrity of the 2020 presidential election, while endangering national security.
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi said that House Democrats’ impeachment of Trump is a “solemn fulfillment of their commitment to protect and defend the (U.S.) Constitution.”
Trump posted continuously on social media that day, calling the impeachment against him a “political witch hunt” and Nadler’s accusations “ridiculous.”
White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham issued a statement saying that the articles of impeachment were “unfounded” and driven by partisan interests. The Senate will confirm Trump’s “completeness” when hearing the impeachment case. Not guilty”. Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign issued a statement slamming the articles of impeachment as partisan.
In the next impeachment process, the House Judiciary Committee will discuss the articles of impeachment and then submit them to the full House of Representatives for debate and vote. If the House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment, the Senate will hear the impeachment case to determine whether the charges against Trump are established. A full House vote will reportedly take place next week.
Analysts believe that although the Trump impeachment case is becoming more and more intense, there is no doubt about its outcome – the House of Representatives with the Democratic majority will pass the impeachment clause, and the Republican majority will pass the impeachment clause. The Senate will reject impeachment.
In August this year, a U.S. intelligence community anonymously reported that Trump asked Ukrainian President Zelensky to investigate the Democratic presidential candidate Biden during a phone call in July. Den and his son. Democrats in the House of Representatives launched an impeachment inquiry against Trump in September. During the more than two months of investigation, relevant House committees called multiple witnesses to submit materials and conducted several closed and public hearings. The White House has consistently refused to cooperate with the impeachment inquiry. </p
