Production and sales of the six major textile raw materials in 2019
1. The output of major textile raw materials has increased significantly , polyester production and sales exceed 10%
Changes in the output of major textile raw materials from 2018 to 2019
2. The prices of major textile raw materials fell by more than 12%, and the price of polyester filament dropped by an astonishing 23.88%
2018~2019 Changes in the prices of major textile raw materials in 2019
The prices of major textile raw materials showed a sharp decline in 2019, and all declines were more than 12%. Among them, polyester filament fell by an astonishing 23.88%. The main reasons for this sharp price drop are:
1 , orders in the terminal weaving industry are pessimistic
In 2019, the inventory of terminal gray fabrics remained high, and the transaction volume of China Textile City declined slightly.
On the one hand, from the perspective of gray fabric inventory, affected by the decline in the prosperity of the terminal textile and garment industry, the gray fabric inventory in Shengze area fluctuated between 34.43 days and 43 days in 2019. The inventory level throughout the year was at a historical high, and there was no obvious destocking phenomenon. Even during the traditional “Golden September and Silver Ten” festivals, the inventory only dropped slightly by 2.5 days.
On the other hand, from the perspective of gray cloth trading volume, as of November 12, 2019, the total trading volume of various textile fabrics in China Textile City was 2.929 billion meters, which was 2.929 billion meters compared with 2018. During the same period, the transaction volume level of 2.932 billion meters dropped by about 3 million meters. This was also the first time that the transaction volume of China Textile City declined since 2014.
Looking forward to 2020, the labor dividend in my country’s textile and apparel industry is gradually disappearing, and in recent years, the textile and apparel industry has been moving to Southeast Asia and other regions. As far as domestic consumption is concerned, under the gradual slowdown of economic growth, the current consumer demand in the textile and apparel industry is insufficient; as far as foreign countries are concerned, in recent years, trade frictions between major countries have occurred frequently, and the uncertainty of peripheral demand for textile and apparel has increased.
It is expected that the volume of end-use gray fabric orders in 2020 will be worse than in 2019, the transaction volume of China Textile City may continue to decline, and the downturn in the end-use textile and apparel industry will gradually be transmitted upward.
2. Polyester inventory is high
▲Figure 1 Polyester filament inventory
The inventory of polyester products in 2019 is high, and the pressure is significantly greater than in previous years. From the perspective of polyester filament inventory, the inventory levels of polyester filament DTY, POY and FDY in 2019 were 19.46 days, 8.62 days and 13.38 days respectively, which was an increase of 1.41 days, 1.41 days and 11.14 days respectively compared with the inventory levels of 18.05 days, 10.40 days and 11.14 days in 2018. Down 1.78 days and up 2.24 days. Although polyester filament POY inventory has declined, it is generally used to produce polyester filament DTY. Therefore, the decline in polyester filament POY inventory does not indicate that polyester’s current inventory is at an advantage. On the contrary, the increase in DTY inventory shows that terminal gray fabric inventory feedback to The pressure caused by the polyester end.
3. The focus of polyester prices continues to shift downward
Upstream raw materials With profit margins, downstream demand is sluggish, and the focus of polyester prices continues to shift downward. As of November 16, 2019, the prices of polyester chips and polyester bottle flakes have reached 5,900 yuan/ton and 6,375 yuan/ton; the prices of polyester filament POY/DTY/FDY have reached 6,850 yuan/ton, 8,550 yuan/ton, and 6,925 yuan/ton respectively. Yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber price reached 6733 yuan/ton. The price of polyester products has dropped significantly since 2019. This is mainly due to the continuous decline in the price of upstream PTA. Affected by the Sino-US trade friction and the slowdown in domestic consumption growth, the prosperity of the terminal weaving industry has declined significantly, and the price of polyester has increased. Weak, prices hit record lows.
Looking forward to 2020, based on pessimistic expectations for the terminal weaving industry, although the profits of the “PX-PTA-polyester” industry chain have been transferred to the polyester link, the polyester production capacity investment plan is relatively small. However, due to the sluggish terminal industry, it is expected that the price support of the polyester segment will be weak. With the increasing production capacity, the industry competition is fierce, and product profits may first increase and then decrease. The corresponding polyester price center will shift downward with the price of the raw material PTA. to historical lows.
4. Terminal compression polyester profit
Terminal compression, polyester Ester profits are acceptable, but there are periodic losses. Since 2019, the profits of polyester chips and polyester bottle flakes have been 190.49 yuan/ton and 257.23 yuan/ton respectively; the profits of polyester filament POY, DTY and FDY have been 301.78 yuan/ton, 325.05 yuan/ton and 290.21 yuan/ton respectively. ; The profit of polyester staple fiber is 398.35 yuan/ton.
However, due to the skyrocketing prices of upstream raw materials, polyester will still experience periodic losses in some cases. In July 2019, the price of PTA rose sharply, while the polyester downstream weaving industry did not follow up orders enough. Under the strong cost and weak demand, polyester bottle flakes, polyester chips, polyester filament FDY, and DTY all experienced different situations. degree of loss. In 2020, there is no risk of a sharp increase in the cost of polyester raw materials. The main risk comes from the downturn in terminal weaving. Therefore, it is expected that the profits of the entire polyester terminal may be stable but may decline, and there is the possibility of periodic losses.
5. The launch of polyester production capacity in 2020 may be lower than expected
▼Table 1 Polyester production plan in 2019
As of early November 2019, according to incomplete statistics, my country’s total polyester production capacity reached 58.69 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.15%. The new polyester production capacity during the year was 3.92 million tons, of which 1.49 million tons were put into production in the first half of the year and 2.43 million tons were put into production in the second half.
In addition, the polyester production capacity in 2019 was significantly lower than the production level of 6.77 million tons in 2018, mainly because the entire “PX-PTA-polyester” industry chain since 2019 Profits have been transferred from the PX link to the PTA link. The polyester link has poor performance due to high prices in the upstream and sluggish downstream, so the production capacity is lower than expected.
▼Table 2 Polyester launch plan in 2020
Looking forward to 2020, although in theory In the “PX-PTA-polyester-textile and apparel” industrial chain, the profits of PX and PTA links have been greatly compressed. With the low cost of upstream raw materials, the profits of the downstream polyester industry should be improved, and the polyester production capacity should be further improved. expanding trend.
However, according to the current understanding of the terminal weaving industry, the order volume of the weaving industry in 2020 is expected to decline year-on-year, and the demand for polyester is not optimistic either. Therefore, it is doubtful whether polyester production capacity can be launched as scheduled. </p
