Since December 2019, the new coronavirus epidemic has swept across China. As of 24:00 on January 30, the current number of infections is 9,692, which has exceeded The number of people infected with SARS in 2003.
After three emergency committee meetings, in the early morning of January 31, the World Health Organization announced that the novel coronavirus epidemic would be classified as a public emergency of international concern. health events.
Director-General of the World Health Organization Tedros announced that the novel coronavirus epidemic would be classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) mainly based on the fact that the number of infected people in China is increasing and epidemics have occurred in many countries.
Tedros emphasized that there is no need to take measures to restrict the international movement of people, and WHO does not recommend measures to restrict travel.
Tedros said that although there will be some economic losses, China has taken extraordinary and powerful measures. China has responded to the epidemic in many aspects. Provides role models. The classification of the new coronavirus epidemic as a public health emergency of international concern does not mean that it lacks confidence in China. On the contrary, the World Health Organization believes that the epidemic in China will be contained. Since there are still many unknowns about the spread of the virus, WHO is worried that the epidemic outside China will worsen. This has nothing to do with the number of infections, but with people’s health and lives.
The new coronavirus epidemic is listed as PHEIC, which will have a huge impact on the polyester market and textile companies
Polyester market: crude oil fell, PTA suffered less damage, and polyester prices may be suppressed!
Crude oil falls: The spread of the new coronavirus epidemic in China has kicked off the decline in international oil prices. Since the lockdown of Wuhan on the 23rd, the decline in international oil prices has rapidly increased, falling by more than US$1/barrel per day for four consecutive days. On the 28th, international oil prices fell to the lowest price in more than three months. This is the first time in the history of crude oil that oil prices have plummeted due to the epidemic in China. Since China is the world’s second largest consumer of crude oil, the economic stagflation caused by the epidemic will weaken energy demand, which has triggered market concerns about the demand for crude oil. contributed to the decline in oil prices. The epidemic has been classified as a PHEIC, further dragging down China’s demand for crude oil market.
PTA has a small impact: The impact of the pneumonia incident on the polyester industry chain, from an upstream and downstream perspective: due to the Towards the terminal, the more labor-intensive enterprises, the upstream polyester, PTA, etc. are all large-scale and intensive production, and the impact on supply is minimal.
Polyester prices may be limited: Polyester filament is the most direct influence on the weaving market. Polyester filament in 2019 Prices continued to fall, and only recovered slightly at the end of the year. However, once this incident occurs, the start-up, production, and demand of the downstream weaving market will be significantly affected. When production starts in the next year, the price of polyester filament is likely to be suppressed, and production and sales may not be able to improve.
Textile companies:Resumption of work is delayed, production is slow, and exports are blocked!
Although the epidemic has been classified as a public health emergency of international concern, the WHO does not support or even oppose the imposition of travel or trade bans on China, but As far as the Chinese economy is concerned, it has also caused certain losses.
Delay in resumption of work: A few days ago, due to the serious spread of the epidemic, the Suzhou Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters issued a notice stating that all types of enterprises must not return to work earlier than 24:00 on February 9 Before resuming work. Textile companies have responded to the call one after another. Textile companies in Shengze, Keqiao, Changxing, Guangzhou, Nantong, Fujian and other places have successively issued notices to postpone the start of work, and will resume work after the 15th day of the first lunar month.
Slow production: Even if companies start to resume work after the new year, the spread of the epidemic is wide and combined with the sensitive time of the Spring Festival, workers will definitely come back late. Even if you come back, according to regulations, you must self-isolate at home for 14 days before going to work. For textile enterprises, the start-up rate will be greatly affected. The production progress is slow. In addition, the textile market situation was mediocre a year ago. The probability of the arrival of “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” is not high.
Exports are blocked: A country’s economy is composed of consumption, investment and net exports. The impact on transnational activities such as trade and tourism will Directly exerting negative pressure on net exports. The first phase of the economic and trade agreement signed between China and the United States two years ago has given textile companies confidence in exports after the start of the new year. However, the United States still maintains a 25% tariff on approximately US$250 billion of Chinese imported goods, and on approximately US$120 billion of Chinese imported goods. The tariff on imported goods from China remains at 7.5%. In addition, the two parties in the United States have reached a consensus on containing China, and there is still the possibility of recurrence of Sino-US trade frictions.able. But now that the new coronavirus epidemic has been classified as a PHEIC, the downward pressure on the economy is greater and the external environment is worse. Exports may be greatly hindered after companies resume operations.
Once the epidemic gets out of control, China’s exports will be regarded as domestic products from the epidemic area and will be excluded from the world market. The confidence of foreign investors in China will be greatly affected. The negative impact on the country may far exceed the impact of the Sino-US trade war.
So, this qualitative meeting of the World Health Organization will be a double-edged sword for China and the world.
It is indeed not a good thing for WHO to characterize the new coronavirus epidemic in China as PHEIC, but do not exaggerate its impact. This announcement also has some positive effects, such as strengthening international cooperation, increasing international assistance to China, etc., and is also conducive to the control of the epidemic.
We should not be overly pessimistic about the adverse impact of this epidemic on China’s economy. This is because, on the one hand, the Chinese government has strong governance capabilities, and on the other hand, it has sufficient policy space to cope with the negative impact of the epidemic on economic growth.
WHO announced that PHEIC is only valid for 3 months and will automatically expire after that. We must have confidence and believe in our country! We can definitely defeat the epidemic! When spring comes and flowers bloom, China’s economy will surely recover!
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Hua Chunying on the world The World Health Organization declared the pneumonia epidemic caused by the new coronavirus infection a “public health emergency of international concern” and stated that since the outbreak of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus infection, the Chinese government has been highly responsible for people’s health and has adopted the most comprehensive measures. , the most stringent prevention and control measures, many of which far exceed the requirements of the International Health Regulations. China is fully confident and capable of winning the battle against the epidemic. The World Health Organization and many countries have fully affirmed and spoken highly of this. .
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