Currently, a people’s war to stop the “new coronavirus-infected pneumonia epidemic” is being launched across the country. Because this sudden virus happened during the Spring Festival, it had a great impact on social stability, the operation of the national economy, etc. As a member of the textile industry, I used the time at home during the national war against the epidemic to conduct interviews with owners of many small and medium-sized textile companies in order to understand the ecological status of textile companies during the epidemic.
1. Assessment of the impact of the “new coronavirus-infected pneumonia epidemic” on enterprises.
Like other industries, chemical fiber weaving companies also face delays in starting work, changes in production processes and order, and the need to readjust the entire production and marketing plan. In most water-jet weaving companies in Wujiang, Jiangsu, the planned resumption time at the beginning of the year varies from company to company and based on orders. The earliest company, such as Shengze, originally planned to open full shifts on the fourth day of the new year, but had to postpone it due to the epidemic. , for well-known reasons, the original supply and demand plan was also communicated and understood with customers during the New Year.
Judging from the epidemic prevention plans formulated by various provinces, prefectures and cities, there are many factors that restrict the return of workers from other places to the factory. Various localities have clear requirements for on-site management and control of labor in intensive enterprises and strict inspections. It will be a common phenomenon for employees from other places to delay their arrival. In terms of industrial process and order, most companies have also been affected. The post-holiday start-up operation shifts that have been compiled before and during the holiday cannot be implemented. The entire production and operation process order will have to be re-established after the epidemic situation eases and the employees are in place.
Wujiang textile companies use a lot of non-local textile industry workers. They stay at home for long periods of time in other places and do not resume work. Employees will choose high-paying companies in different places to work in the same position through various information exchanges. , or find a new job near their hometown, so there is still a hidden risk of loss of employee resources. For example, Wang from Jinzhai, Anhui Province, used to work as a driver for a textile company in Shengze. Recently, she was chatting with a friend on her mobile phone at Xianfu’s home. She found a local private textile company with a type of work she was familiar with, even though her monthly salary was less than that at the Taizhou factory. Three to four hundred yuan, but because it was close to home, she returned to Shengze’s “old employer” and decided to work in a nearby textile factory.
During the interview, many business CEO friends told the author that the long holiday arrangements caused by the “epidemic” have had an impact on the factories of various industrial companies. Textile enterprises, especially the intensive small and medium-sized diversified structure textile enterprises in northern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu that mainly focus on processing, mostly work for large textile, garment and bedding manufacturers in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangshen and other places. Supporting equipment is normally maintained by orders and supply time nodes, and they operate in tacit understanding with each other. Some have cooperated with each other for many years, and rarely “drop out of the chain”. Some operating models follow the “old routine” that is already the norm in most companies. “Unchanged over the years.” As for the delay in the start of construction, which is unknown at this time, as soon as both parties get to work, they must first conduct production and demand supply and product supply and marketing run-ins before starting the operation. Of course, this requires that the entire upstream and downstream are fully connected and smooth. If there is a problem in a certain link of production or sales, the operating process may be re-arranged. As for the market situation and product production and sales flow, the company believes that it is still unclear and unclear for the time being, but there will definitely be changes. It is just that the market is unpredictable, and everyone is watching and looking forward to it.
2. Forecast of the specific resumption time.
Currently, the most common time for people to resume work is between February 8 and 10. So far, there has been no information about plans to resume work earlier. The CEO of a textile company said that for all textile companies that use workers from other provinces and cities, the time for resumption of work will not be determined now. The main reason is that the closure of regional locations and transportation is based on the current situation of the local epidemic. Some cases have The towns and communities affected by the epidemic have been sealed off, and it is unknown when the lockdown will be lifted. For example, the Jiangsu Transportation Management Department issued a notice to temporarily close some high-speed exits leading to cities, counties, and districts. Coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Shandong have many textile companies and are located at the entrance and exit of roads with developed traffic, and there are many high-speed exits. The closure has affected employees and logistics. It is unlikely that most companies will resume work in early February. Together with the original Spring Festival holiday, the actual shutdown time of textile companies has exceeded half a month.
In the interview, some textile company CEOs said that if the order is urgent, they will wait until the ban After the delay, local workers will be arranged to start production, and their operating shifts will be scheduled in real time based on output requirements and employee availability. Of course, this is just a plan. After Hubei, Jiangxi, Shandong and other places recently received news of strict vigilance against the epidemic, some textile companies in the eastern region are worried again, because textile employment in the central and western regions is their main human resources.
However, in the face of the epidemic, the majority of people in the textile industry still have a sense of understanding and taking into account the overall situation, saying that they must strictly implement the calls of the party and the government and actively support the battle to prevent and control the epidemic. , and will never hold back the overall battle. Many textile companies and industry associations in Jiangsu provide assistance to industrial workers in faraway places, enterprises issued open letters and proposals, asking everyone to put the overall situation first, put people’s livelihood and safety first, resolutely respond to the call, obey the command, sacrifice the small family for everyone, and ensure a complete victory in the war.
3. Deep thinking about the future.
(1) During the interviews, most business leaders expressed concern that the impact of the epidemic is not only reflected in how quickly the business resumes work, how orders are fulfilled, etc. The problem, more importantly, is the impact of the epidemic trend on internal and external operations of various industries, especially foreign trade operations. The company said that if there is a shortage of people, it can offer preferential recruitment and the construction period can be caught up, but it will be more troublesome due to the picky trade caused by the epidemic. Although some small and medium-sized textile companies rarely have direct import and export trade operations, most of them are supporting some well-known, large-scale, and branded textile companies in Shanghai, Fujian, and Guangdong. The degree of epidemic control will inevitably affect the flow rate and quality of future international and domestic trade processes. The distribution of the intensity of trade control among companies in various countries is the most serious and serious issue currently considered by most processing and supporting companies for foreign trade and even domestic sales companies.
(2) Export orders for textiles and clothing will definitely not be good. PHEIC is valid for three months, and will be re-evaluated after three months at the latest. No matter how much the WHO chairman (Ethiopian nationality) wants to help us Chinese, he must face reality, otherwise the WHO will not be impartial. I still hope that the “epidemic” will pass soon.
(3) GDP fell by at least one point year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, and some estimate it to be 2 points. I don’t know yet whether we can get it back in the next three quarters, but I hope. I hope the textile market will perform better in the second half of the year.
(4) European and American buyers may unite to boycott Chinese textiles. Suppliers in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Guangdong have been asked by American importers to issue “letters of guarantee”. At present, “concerted action” is still at the stage of “issuing a letter of guarantee”. It remains to be seen whether it will reach the stage of requiring “third-party certification” in the future.
Of course there is good news. The development of the epidemic is basically moving in a “controllable” direction. I believe it can teach the people of the whole country a lesson again. The adjustment of industrial structure, the “e-commerce” of trade models, and the “off-site transaction model” will become popular. Of course, a “retaliatory rebound” after the “epidemic” is over is also expected.
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