An epidemic has caused people all over the country to stay home during the New Year. They cannot gather together on the day of reunion, and the enterprises that should start production cannot operate.
As the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic gradually comes under control, the country has finally ushered in the first round of resumption of work and production.
1. Except for Hubei, the other 30 provinces have gradually resumed work
On February 9, at a press conference held by the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Chen Da, deputy director of the Economic and Trade Department of Venezuela, said that currently, in addition to Hubei Province, 30 other provinces across the country have made arrangements for enterprises to resume work and production.
Thirty provincial and municipal governments including Henan and Guangdong have issued relevant guidance notices on resumption of work and production, requiring returning employees to wear masks when going to and from work. Their body temperature will be monitored and any abnormalities will be reported immediately. During the start of construction, it is necessary to disinfect and clean factory areas, workshops, elevators and other places where people gather, facilities and equipment, and strengthen ventilation in the workshop area. The company canteen has staggered dining times, and people take off their masks at the last minute to avoid face-to-face dining, talking while dining, and dining in groups.
Most companies have suspended work and production for a week due to the epidemic, and there is a lack of supply of daily necessities, medical supplies, etc. It is reported that the current resumption rate of domestic mask manufacturers is as high as 73%, the supply of natural gas and refined oil is sufficient, and civil aviation and railway operations are normal.
Guangdong: When resuming work and production, we must make every effort to ensure that both epidemic prevention and control and safe production are in place. Closely monitor personnel exchanges and health conditions to ensure that the epidemic prevention and control mechanism, employee health screening, protective facilities and materials meet the requirements for resumption of work. In addition, we pay attention to safety in key areas such as transportation, construction engineering, hazardous chemicals, and fire-fighting gas, and organize special rectification actions for hidden problems to ensure that major production safety risks are effectively prevented and resolved.
Jiangxi: Epidemic prevention and control, energy supply, transportation and logistics, urban and rural operations, production of medical supplies and food and other daily necessities, feed production, market circulation and sales and other fields that are important to the national economy and people’s livelihood must ensure conditions for immediate resumption of work Produce. Other companies with market orders and production raw materials should give priority to start operations. When employees in this province return to work, they must obtain and carry with them a health certificate issued by the township (street) or higher unit where they live.
Hebei: Promote the resumption of production and work of enterprises in batches. Epidemic prevention materials, key raw and auxiliary materials, important production equipment and parts, food and other daily necessities will be included in the scope of emergency transportation support, and relevant transportation vehicles will not be stopped, inspected, charged, and given priority and convenient access. The supply and demand market for coal, electricity, oil, gas and other factors should be dynamically monitored and accurately dispatched to resolutely prevent regional and periodic shortages and sharp price increases.
30 provinces have started operations one after another, which has alleviated the current tight supply and demand situation of various items. The orderly resumption of work and production of enterprises can ensure market supply. However, Hubei Province is also one of the provinces with strong chemical industry. There is no time limit for resumption of work, which may affect the market supply of chemical raw materials.
2. There is no time limit for Hubei’s resumption of production. Will the chemical industry be the most affected?
Hubei Province is one of the major industrial provinces in the country, and Wuhan is one of the most important industrial cities in the country, according to statistics. Wuhan’s GDP in 2019 ranked ninth in the country, and a large amount of materials were transported to all parts of the country through Wuhan. How much impact will the shutdown in Hubei have on the chemical industry?
According to data from the Ministry of Transport, Hubei’s ports are mainly used for domestic trade transportation. The types of transportation include: crude oil, ore, coal and other bulk commodities, mechanical products, steel, chemicals, etc. Currently, Hubei is affected by the epidemic and production has stagnated, which may have an impact on the upstream and downstream industrial chains.
► Data source: Port website, Ministry of Transport, Guotai Junan Securities Research.
According to research statistics from Wind and Guotai Junan Securities, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing account for the largest proportion of added value among high-weighted industries in Hubei Province. It can be seen that the chemical industry may be the most affected by the suspension of production in Hubei!
► Data source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research.
The impact on the recent resumption of work in other provinces:
Chemical product manufacturing will be directly affected, and industries with greater downstream demand are concentrated in rubber plastics, papermaking and Processing, wood and processing industries, and textile industries, these industries are dependent on the demand for chemicals due to their own demand shocks, and the impact may be greater.
Due to the delay in resumption of work, the delay in construction activities, and the impact of the automobile chain, there will be some short-term suppression of demand for ferrous and non-ferrous smelting and metal products.
In terms of chemical raw materials, Hubei has some listed companies for soda ash, chlor-alkali, and inorganic salts. In terms of chemical products, there are some listed companies related to compound fertilizers, civil explosive supplies, and pesticides. Chemical raw materials with relatively concentrated output include phosphate rock. stone, monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, paraquat, and glyphosate, etc.The weakening of terminal demand caused by the continued epidemic may also exacerbate the operating risks of some companies.
The suppression of Hubei’s chemical industry will inevitably have an impact on the national chemical market. However, today’s chemical industry chain is relatively long, with wide coverage of downstream demand, continuity of production, and high substitutability of raw materials and products. Therefore, it may only bring certain short-term risks to the supply chain within the regional radius. It can be seen that the supply chain risks in the chemical industry are limited, and more are risks caused by demand suppression.
3. Resumption of work is safe and production is smooth
The Ministry of Transport issued a notice requiring epidemic prevention and control and speeding up the resumption of highway and water transportation projects. Except for Hubei Province and Except for other areas with heavy epidemic prevention and control tasks, in principle, preparations should be made for resumption of work before February 15, 2020, and efforts should be made to resume work before February 20.
With the exception of Hubei, companies in other provinces have begun to resume production. Enterprises that resume work must pay attention to epidemic prevention and production safety. Guanghua Jun wishes everyone a safe return to work, a good start, and smooth production.
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