Since February, the direct-spun polyester staple fiber market has experienced two waves of concentrated shipments, and the accumulation pressure is significantly lighter than that of filament and sliced products. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of yarn mills has returned to about 60%, and the rigid demand is gradually improving. The price of direct-spun polyester staple fiber continues to hover at 6,300-6,500 yuan/ton. Some industry players believe that the current market has basically bottomed out, and the subsequent market may gradually improving. However, as the international public health incident continues to ferment, the external environment is not optimistic, and although domestic yarn and weaving companies have started operations one after another, terminal orders have been slow to start, and yarn and cloth inventory circulation is difficult. The polyester staple fiber industry may still not be optimistic. .
After one month of deep decline adjustment, the price of polyester staple fiber has It fluctuates between 6300-6500 yuan/ton, and cash flow is stable between 200-300 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory costs, short fiber companies are basically unprofitable; in addition, they are worried about global central banks releasing water to stimulate the economy, and placing their hopes on OPEC Production cuts will boost oil prices and other factors. Some industry players believe that the current price of polyester staple fiber has basically bottomed out, so market shipments have also accelerated in recent days.
However, external unfavorable factors still exist, and overseas public health incidents continue to ferment. Yesterday’s 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has relatively limited stimulation for the market. The market is more concerned about the consequences of the subsequent decline in demand. Hidden dangers; Moreover, from the perspective of domestic fundamentals, the current accumulated inventory pressure in all links of the polyester industry chain is relatively large. PTA currently has nearly 3 million tons of social inventory, and the current load is still maintained at 83.75%, while the comprehensive operating rate of polyester At only 66.37%, the current inventory accumulation pressure of enterprises is still high, and ethylene glycol port inventory also continues to accumulate; not only that, the inventory pressure of polyester varieties is also generally greater. At present, except for polyester staple fiber, the average inventory is less than 15 days, and the inventory of other products The pressure is more than half a month, especially for the main product polyester filament, many companies have stocks of 1 to 2 months.
Therefore, for a period of time, the polyester industry will still prioritize destocking. After entering March, the operating rates of various downstream fields across the country have increased rapidly. The comprehensive operating rate of national spinning has increased to over 60%. The operating rates of major weaving bases such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang have also gradually increased to nearly 60%. However, terminal orders are slow to start, yarn and cloth inventories are difficult to digest quickly, and the subsequent increase in operating rate may gradually slow down, making it difficult to return to the same period in previous years, which will also limit the replenishment of upstream raw materials. The same is true for polyester staple fiber, and the short fiber operating rate is also gradually recovering. As of March 4, the industry’s comprehensive operating rate (including hollow) has recovered to 57.16%, an increase of 13.28% from the lowest operating rate in February. . If the operating rate of subsequent spinning mills is difficult to return to the same period in previous years (near 85%), then it is expected that the operating rate of polyester staple fiber companies will also be difficult to return to more than 80%.
At present, although the inventory pressure of polyester staple fiber is relatively light among polyester varieties, it is mainly due to the factory’s production reduction and large price concessions, which will be followed by As its own operating rate continues to increase and terminals are still weak, the industry still faces certain pressure from accumulating inventory. Therefore, in the context of still great uncertainty in the external environment and unstable domestic demand, the polyester staple fiber market will still bear a heavy burden. However, in the context of little profit margin for upstream products, the staple fiber market price may continue to hover around Running near the cost line (to which inventory costs must be calculated). </p
