A brief description of the first part
According to monitoring, PX upstream and downstream products were basically weak in February Affected by the pneumonia epidemic in China, the resumption of factory work has been delayed, and downstream products have generally started at a low level, resulting in increased upstream supply pressure and accumulation of inventory. A new PX device with a capacity of 2 million tons/year has been put into operation, and the supply is relatively high. In addition, the epidemic abroad worsened at the end of the month, international crude oil fell sharply, and the industrial chain mainly followed the decline.
Table PX and related products rise and fall rankings in February
Data Source: Jin Lianchuang
This month, the average monthly price of PX upstream and downstream products fell overall month-on-month, and the upstream raw materials fell relatively sharply. Among them, the average monthly price of isomeric xylene market fell month-on-month. 11.43%., the monthly average price of PTA fell by 10.69% month-on-month, the monthly average price of PX fell by 9.17% month-on-month, and the monthly average price of downstream polyester bottle chips and polyester chips fell slightly less than the month-on-month decrease, falling by 5.39% and 6.59% respectively.
Part 2: Market analysis of main products of the PX industry chain
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Isomeric xylene
Domestic xylene prices fluctuated in February. Affected by the epidemic after the Spring Festival, the price plummeted. Due to delays in the resumption of work of enterprises in various places and restrictions on logistics and transportation, market demand was sluggish. The inventory pressure of manufacturing enterprises continues to rise, and the domestic toluene market fluctuated and bottomed out in the first half of the month. In the middle and late half of the year, domestic epidemic data gradually improved, and crude oil futures prices rebounded strongly for many consecutive days. Downstream companies gradually began to resume work. Users were highly motivated to replenish goods at low prices, and prices have fallen to historically low levels. The market was highly motivated to speculate and stock up. This further contributed to the price rebound, with xylene rebounding strongly in various places. However, after a short period of speculative activities, demand shortcomings have reappeared. The pace of resumption of work by terminal companies is relatively slow. With the demand for oil adjustment being sluggish, the intensity of buying for urgent needs is insufficient. The pressure on spot supply is still prominent, and the epidemic has spread in Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, Europe and other places. spread, the market mentality is panic, crude oil has fallen sharply for many days, and domestic toluene prices have fallen rapidly again.
PX
In February, the Asian PX market fluctuated and fell, continuing Last month was weak. By the end of the month, Asian PX was estimated at US$697/ton FOB South Korea and US$707/ton CFR Taiwan/China, down US$56/ton from the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the epidemic in China, the expected decline in demand for crude oil led to a decline in crude oil, which in turn put pressure on chemical products. On the first trading day, most domestic energy and chemical products opened at the limit, aggravating merchants’ concerns. PX followed the general environment and fell in the middle of the month. Crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, the bearish sentiment in the PX market subsided, and merchants returned to rationality. PX still suffered serious losses, and merchants had limited profit margins. However, PX was restricted by logistics and transportation, and non-self-use enterprises mainly accumulated inventory, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s second set of PX The device was officially put into production, but the resumption of work of the terminal factory was delayed, the downstream market performed poorly, the trading atmosphere was dull, and the supply and demand of PX were not prosperous. At the end of the month, affected by the outbreak of foreign pneumonia, international crude oil and stock markets continued to plummet, and PX fell sharply following the industrial chain. Downstream PTA inventory is on the high side, and PX purchases are generally positive. Industry players have strong risk aversion, so they should wait and see with caution. Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in February was 6,100 yuan/ton, which was 600 yuan/ton lower than the settlement price last month. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in February was US$738.8/ton, down 9.17% month-on-month and 33.08% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$707/ton on February 28, and the highest price was US$763/ton on February 3. Ton.
PTA
In February, the PTA spot market fluctuated within a narrow range. At the beginning of the month, crude oil prices ran within a narrow range, and the cost side provided solid support for PTA. Some PTA factory equipment is undergoing intensive maintenance, the operating rate has declined, and the spot price is relatively stable. However, some downstream polyesters are still on holiday. During this period, several sets of polymer spinning filament equipment were shut down for maintenance. Due to weak trading links, the market transaction center was weak and flat. Downstream textile companies have not resumed work yet, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The PTA market continues to fluctuate. On the 13th, the spot offer at the main port in East China this week was reduced by 130-140 yuan/ton for the 2005 contract, and the offer was reduced by 160 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4280-4320 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, crude oil prices were relatively strong within a narrow range, and the cost side provided strong support to PTA. The operating rate of PTA is low, and spot negotiations are more active. However, downstream polyester production is gradually resuming work, and polyester production and sales are slowly increasing, which has boosted market prices. However, because PTA inventory is still high, and downstream work resumption is obviously less than expected, the market has insufficient upward momentum. On the 20th, the spot offer at the main port in East China this week was reduced by 140-160 yuan/ton for the 2005 contract, and the offer was reduced by 160 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4330-4360 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, crude oil continued to decline, which intensified market concerns about systemic risks, and the PTA market declined weakly. On the 27th, the main port spot offer for the 2005 contract was reduced by 140-160 yuan/ton, and the delivery price was reduced by 160 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4180-4210 yuan/ton. In February, the average PTA market price in East China was 4,305 yuan/ton, down 10.69% month-on-month and 33.47% year-on-year. The highest price appeared on the 21st at 4,400 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared at 4,180 yuan/ton on the 27th.
Polyester bottle flakes
In February, domestic bottle grade PET The market as a whole showed a low-level shock pattern, and the market volatility narrowed. Returning from the holiday, international crude oil continues toAffected by the domestic epidemic, the polyester raw PTA and ethylene glycol markets fell sharply at the opening, and the cost side was negatively suppressed. Affected by the epidemic, domestic transportation was blocked, and bottle tablet manufacturers’ inventories began to rise. Manufacturers’ offers were subsequently lowered, and the market price fell to 6,100-6,250 yuan/ton. However, downstream demand has not yet started, the resumption of work has been delayed, and the market lacks firm negotiations. In the later period, as the decline in the polyester raw material market slowed down, it mostly remained at a low level. Under the support of cost, the bottle-grade PET market also maintained a narrow range of fluctuations, with market negotiations focusing on 6,100-6,300 yuan/ton. Since the middle of the month, as the state has increased its support for companies to resume work, downstream companies have steadily increased their work starts, and market inquiries have increased. Shipments from bottle chip manufacturers have begun to increase, while inventories remain high. The bidding for large orders by major downstream beverage manufacturers is gradually increasing. As of February 28, the average bottle-grade PET market price in East China in February was 6,229 yuan/ton, down 5.39% month-on-month and 25.67% year-on-year. The highest price appeared at 6,500 yuan/ton on February 3, and the lowest price appeared at 6,100 yuan/ton on February 4.
Part 3 Forecast and Outlook
Jin Lianchuang Forecast 3 The PX industry chain may fluctuate at a low level in March, and the direction is not strong. Although the international epidemic has worsened, domestic downstream factories have accelerated their resumption of work, and merchants’ bearish sentiment has weakened. The demand for PX and PTA is expected to increase, but there is a large amount of inventory accumulated in the early stage. It is difficult for the market to appear, the industry chain as a whole has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market is mainly brewing. The following is the market outlook for major products:
PX
Fuhai Chuanghe Hainan Refining and Chemical’s PX unit plans to restart, and domestic supply will return to normal. In addition, the foreign epidemic situation has worsened, the general environment is bearish, and the industry’s mentality is cautious. However, with the domestic epidemic prevention and control, terminal factories have begun to resume work, and downstream products have generally declined. Mainly inventory, it is expected that the Asian PX market will be mainly weak and volatile in March.
PTA
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the PTA market may be volatile in March Mainly, as downstream demand gradually resumes work, we cannot rule out the possibility of a rebound in the middle and late months. Affected by the national epidemic, the continued decline in crude oil prices has been negative for PTA. At the same time, high PTA inventories and lower-than-expected resumption of downstream polyester production have resulted in weak supply and demand fundamentals for PTA. Therefore, the market may remain weak in the short term; however, as the epidemic Under the control of the epidemic, downstream polyester and weaving demand may recover in the middle to late period. Therefore, with the increase in demand, the possibility of a rebound in the market cannot be ruled out. We still need to pay attention to the resumption of work downstream.
Polyester PET
Jin Lianchuang expects bottle grade in March The PET market may remain low and volatile. As the global pneumonia epidemic spreads, market panic continues to intensify. With the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets are expected to rebound next month, and costs are firmly supported by the market. Domestic logistics and transportation are gradually recovering. Bottle tablet manufacturers will still focus on shipments next month, and the pressure of high inventory will gradually ease. Downstream demand is gradually recovering. Due to lack of confidence in the market outlook, there is little room for significant increase in demand, and the market supply and demand are generally weak. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic bottle-grade PET market may remain at a low level in March, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the trends in the raw material market. </p
