On March 10, when commenting on the sharp decline in U.S. stocks the day before, Warren Buffett told the media: “If you persist in the market long enough, you will encounter various situations, but I lived 89 This is the first time I have seen such a scene.” I wonder if he regrets saying this too early.
The U.S. market is not the only one that has plummeted. Global stock markets have staged a “circuit breaker race” this week.
A sad joke
On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic data for the first two months of this year. Industrial , consumption, and investment all hit or were close to historical lows during the same period, reflecting that the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy exceeded expectations.
As we enter mid-March, textile companies across the country will resume production, but the impact on textile orders has begun to fade. At the beginning of the resumption of work, due to the concentrated release of backlogged orders from the previous year, the entire textile market showed gratifying peak season conditions. However, as subsequent orders have obviously followed up and orders have continued to be reduced and canceled, the durability of this wave of market prices has begun to be greatly reduced.
As the COVID-19 epidemic spreads globally, developed economies such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have fallen into decline one after another. In 2020, global demand and consumption for textile clothing and cotton products may face a “cliff-like” decline.
China won the first half of this battle against the epidemic at a heavy cost, but overseas countries cannot win the second half, and we cannot survive alone. Foreign trade people will have a deeper understanding of this point.
The global epidemic has broken out and it is basically impossible to end this summer
On March 11, the World Health Organization announced in Geneva that the new coronavirus epidemic has the characteristics of a global pandemic! Subsequently, many countries, led by the United States, successively announced new city and border closure measures!
▲Trump declared a national emergency (picture from the official website of the White House)
Affiliated with Fudan University Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital, said: “According to the current global anti-epidemic situation, it is basically impossible for this epidemic to end this summer. If the epidemics in Italy and Iran continue to evolve in depth, the risk of the new crown epidemic across the years will become increasingly high. The bigger.”
U.S. stocks circuit breaker four times in 10 days
Due to The panic caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in the financial market has not been effectively alleviated. The three major stock indexes in the New York stock market opened sharply lower in early trading on the 18th. The decline expanded at noon and the circuit breaker mechanism was triggered again.
On March 18, traders worked at the New York Stock Exchange in the United States. The three major stock indexes in the New York stock market opened sharply lower in early trading on the 18th. The decline expanded at noon and triggered the circuit breaker mechanism again.
In the afternoon of that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 stock index plummeted 7.82% and 7.01% respectively, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism and the market suspended trading for 15 minutes.
The decline of the three major stock indexes when the US stock market circuit breaker occurred.
This is the fourth circuit breaker in the New York stock market this month and the fifth circuit breaker since the circuit breaker mechanism was established in 1988. On March 9, March 12, and March 16, the U.S. stock market had crashed three times. In these three days, the Dow Jones Index fell by 7.8%, 10.0%, and 12.9% respectively, each time falling more severely. Even “Stock God” Warren Buffett said, “I have lived for 89 years and have never seen such a scene.”
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to suppress demand for crude oil and investors’ concerns about a global economic recession intensify, international oil prices have almost fallen to freezing point. WTI crude oil plunged 23% ($6.43) on Wednesday to $20.81 a barrel, its lowest level in 18 years, marking its third-worst day ever. Brent crude fell 14%, or $4.02, to $24.6, its lowest level since 2003.
Who needs to buy clothes now? Orders cut by as much as 30%
As the WHO upgraded the risk of global virus transmission to the highest level and countries concentrated on fighting the epidemic, my country’s textile and clothing exports in March and April We are still under great pressure and the situation is not optimistic.
According to customs statistics, my country’s exports of textile yarn, fabrics and products from January to February 2020 were US$13.7725 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9%. From January to February, my country’s exports of clothing and clothing Attachments amounted to US$16.0623 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%, both sharply “diving”. Affected by the global spread of the new coronavirus epidemic, European and American fashion retailers have recently taken measures to cope with sales shocks and inventory pressures. Some of them have chosen to reduce orders to clothing factories, and some have begun to reopen.��Can’t leave home. In addition, it was reported on March 17 that leaders of EU member states have agreed to temporarily close EU borders for 30 days. Don’t even think about the European exhibition in April.
More than that, according to data released by the German think tank ZEW on March 17, the ZEW economic prosperity index of the Eurozone in March was -49.5, the lowest level since December 2011. Germany’s ZEW economic prosperity index in March The index is -49.5, expected to be -26.4, and the previous value was 8.7.
ZEW President Achim Wambach said that the sharp decline in ZEW’s economic expectations indicates that Europe’s economic situation has turned on a red warning signal, and this downward trend will continue in the second quarter.
Iran: In May 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and restarted sanctions on Iran, and the Iranian economy gradually fell into a cold winter. The epidemic has made Iran’s economy even worse.
On March 15, the number of confirmed patients with COVID-19 in Iran reached 13,938. At the same time, the unofficial market exchange rate of the Iranian rial against the US dollar also fell to 15,550:1, a 7.7% depreciation compared with February 29 when Iran first announced a confirmed case of new coronary pneumonia.
According to Chao Jian, a Chinese businessman doing lighting business in Tehran, most Iranian businessmen come to China to purchase at the end of December or early January every year. When the goods arrive in Iran by sea, they can arrive in 3 For sale before Nowruz of the month. “But now they have stopped due to the impact of the epidemic.” South Korea: As of March 17, South Korea has a total of 8,320 confirmed cases and 81 deaths. The number of newly confirmed cases has been less than 100 for three consecutive days. To some extent It said that the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea is under control and is showing an easing trend.
South Korea is an export-oriented economy and is highly dependent on the international market. Since last year, South Korea’s economy has continued to be sluggish, with annual exports falling 10.3% year-on-year. There is no doubt that the epidemic will continue to worsen. Kim Sung-tae, director of the Economic Outlook Office of the Korea Development Institute, predicted that if the epidemic lasts for more than three months, it will have a major impact on manufacturing production. Shin Gwan-ho, an economics professor at Korea University, bluntly said that the continued epidemic will increase the risk of corporate bankruptcy.
There is no lower limit to the economic impact, and textile people must be prepared for a protracted war
In 2020, textile and clothing exports face a severe foreign trade situation and There are many constraints:
First, insufficient international market demand and slow global economic recovery;
Second, industrial transfers and industry orders Outward migration is posing a challenge to my country’s clothing trade;
The third is the rising domestic costs;
The fourth is the lack of effective growth point.
At this time, the new crown epidemic is encountered, which will undoubtedly make China’s textile and apparel exports even worse. Export companies are facing severe challenges. As the epidemic spreads around the world, demand in the world’s major textile and apparel markets will decline. The affected markets are not just the United States last year, and the problem of overcapacity will become more prominent. It is the consensus of most people that the textile market is currently in an off-season. Of course, this situation is inseparable from the impact of the rampant pneumonia epidemic and the weakening global economic situation. There is no clear answer as to how long this impact will last. Textile people must be prepared for a protracted war. At the same time, the current situation is changing every day. Finally, I would like to remind all foreign trade textile people again that before shipping, please be sure to understand the current status and policies of the destination country and ensure the safety of payment! </p
