On March 25, the market situation changed. Zheng cotton contracts not only opened higher and moved higher, but also closed at the daily limit except for CF2011 and CF2103 contracts in late trading. This is the first time since March that Zheng cotton has closed at the daily limit after falling below the limit three times and breaking the 10,000 yuan/ton mark.
In fact, the symbolic significance of this daily limit is far greater than the actual significance. It not only boosts market confidence and boosts morale for people in the cotton industry, but also allows investors to feel a glimmer of sunshine in a gloomy situation. However, we should also be clearly aware of the characteristics of Zheng Mian that is divorced from fundamentals and resonates with the global stock market. At present, there is basically no transaction in domestic cotton. On March 25, the quotation price of hand-picked Xinjiang cotton in the warehouses of Hebei and Henan on “Double 29” was 11,200-11,300 yuan/ton (basis, the same below), and the quotation price of “Double 28” machine-picked cotton was 11,200-11,300 yuan/ton. At 10,600-10,700 yuan/ton, there is basically no transaction.
Global markets are experiencing a long-awaited surge. On the evening of the 24th, U.S. stocks surged after opening higher and closed sharply higher. The Dow closed up more than 2,100 points, an increase of 11.37%, the largest single-day increase since 1933. It is very obvious that Zheng Mian closely follows the trend of US stocks. Under the synchronization and resonance, Zheng Mian’s plummeting and rising prices have become less valuable to participate in. Therefore, the symbolic significance of Zheng Mian’s daily limit this time is greater.
These days, the market has been asking where is the bottom of cotton? More than 10,000 yuan/ton or less? At present, it seems that Zheng Cotton has encountered very strong support at 10,000 yuan/ton, and the probability of a short-term downward breakthrough is small. Zheng Cotton’s cliff-like decline may come to an end. However, affected by the global epidemic and economic contraction, global stock markets, crude oil, etc. are more likely to plummet and surge in the low range. It will be difficult for Zheng Cotton to rebound quickly after hitting the bottom. Therefore, the author predicts that the main force of Zheng Cotton will be around 10,000-11,000 yuan in the near future. / ton range is more likely to oscillate significantly.
China’s epidemic prevention and control situation is improving rapidly. After the lifting of the ban in Hubei, there are good news about the resumption of work and production of various enterprises and the restoration of production capacity. Some large business districts, stores, and exhibitions have also gradually resumed. Domestic consumption is moving in a good direction. develop. If there is no more negative news, Zheng Mian may repack and start again. A trader said that March this year was unusual in history, with the U.S. stock market experiencing four tragic circuit breakers. Zheng cotton also fell to the floor, with a cumulative drop of 3,500 yuan/ton in just one month, a drop of about 26%.
There is an old saying that goes, “Misfortunes and blessings depend on each other, and good times come together.” The author believes that the darkest moments are short-lived after all, and sooner or later the sun will rise normally after the clouds are cleared. “No” is close to the extreme, and “Tai” is about to come. </p