This week, the cost side of PX increased significantly, and the demand side support was not strong. The price of PX increased slightly during the week, and the profit dropped significantly.
From the cost side: International oil prices fell sharply during the week, and then bottomed out and rebounded. Overseas epidemics suppressed demand, supply became increasingly oversupplied, and remaining storage capacity was insufficient. WTI futures suffered a crazy sell-off for the first time in history. dropped to negative values. On Wednesday, oil prices rose for two consecutive days due to expectations of production cuts in oil-producing countries and geopolitical influences. The cracking price difference between naphtha and crude oil was repaired during the week, with naphtha rising significantly. The price difference between PX and naphtha fell to US$237.25/ton on Thursday, down US$35.67/ton from last week. In terms of operating rate, the current operating rate of PX is 91.9%, with little change during the week.
From the demand side, the current operating rate of PTA has been adjusted to 91.01%. From April 20th to 23rd, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 million tons PTA unit was temporarily suspended due to shortages. Tianjin Petrochemical’s 340,000-ton PTA unit was shut down on April 17, and there is no clear restart time. Polyester production started at 84.97% during the week, production and sales decreased, and inventory increased during the week. At the same time, weaving starts continued to decrease month-on-month, polyester demand remained skewed, and the average daily PTA inventory during the week was still around 10,000 tons.
Price: As of April 23, PX closed at US$469.5/ton CFR China, up 0.28 percentage points week-on-week and 40.72 percentage points lower than before the holiday. In terms of domestic prices, the April settlement price of Sinopec PX was 3,820 yuan/ton (cash 3,800 yuan/ton), a decrease of 940 yuan/ton from March.
As far as the market outlook is concerned, in the absence of major positive events, there is still a risk that cost-side oil prices will continue to decline next week, and cost support is not strong. It is expected that PX prices will be weak and volatile next week.
Comparison of Asian PX price trends
Unit: US dollars/ton
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