With the outbreak of the epidemic, countries around the world have lifted lockdowns and “restarted” amid the global economic downturn. However, many countries have experienced a rebound in the epidemic. We originally hoped that trade exports would usher in spring after countries lifted lockdowns, but we never expected that. …
Real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of Beijing time As of 14:30 on May 18, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 4.7 million, reaching 4,716,965, and the cumulative number of deaths was 315,248.
It is understood that the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development recently stated that in the second quarter of this year, global merchandise trade volume is expected to drop by about 27% compared with the first quarter. In the third quarter, global trade volume decreased by 3% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019.
The blockade measures and freight interruptions implemented by various countries due to the epidemic, as well as new trade restrictions imposed on certain commodities during the epidemic, It is the main reason affecting the economy. Amid the global economic downturn, countries have begun to lift lockdowns and “restart” in an attempt to revive their economies.
However, the epidemic has rebounded in many countries, making the situation even worse.
01. It will take some time for the United States to start to restart recovery
According to According to US media statistics, as of May 17, 48 states in the United States have partially reopened. Among them, New York State, the “epicenter of the epidemic” in the United States, can reopen wholesale trade and some retail industries in some areas. In two weeks, the region will decide whether to move to the next phase based on the results of its review of the reopening.
In this regard, Fauci, a well-known American epidemiologist and a key member of the White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, said that if If the economy is hastily restarted when “effective and efficient” response capabilities are in place, the COVID-19 epidemic may evolve from a small increase to a major outbreak.
02. Brazil may become the next “epicenter” of the epidemic
It is understood that Brazil is currently the region with the worst epidemic in Latin America. As of May 18, Beijing time, the country had more than 240,000 confirmed cases.
Since the spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic around the world, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been unable to coordinate the interests of all parties to take effective anti-epidemic measures, resulting in the country’s epidemic situation continuing to worsen. It is currently out of control.
Currently, Brazil’s economy, trade, port cargo transportation, etc. are all affected to varying degrees.
03. India’s nationwide lockdown has been extended again
According to Indian media reports , On May 17, local time, India announced that it would continue to implement a two-week nationwide blockade. During this round of blockade, railways, roads and aviation will be closed.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a national blockade order on March 24, and then announced the extension of the blockade three times on April 14, May 3 and May 12 respectively. make. Implementation details for the fourth round of national lockdown will be announced soon.
As of May 18, Beijing time, the total number of confirmed cases in India has exceeded 90,000.
04. The German epidemic rebounded and the economy dropped sharply
According to the German News The news agency reported that since various parts of Germany stepped up efforts to unblock the country, confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia have surged. German Chancellor Merkel announced that the epidemic in Germany is in a “new stage” and once again warned the public that they must abide by the “social ban” and wear masks when going out.
In addition to the rebound of the epidemic in Germany, the domestic economy has also declined significantly.
Data show that in the first quarter of 2020, Germany’s GDP fell by 2.2%, and exports, consumption and investment all showed significant declines. The biggest drop since the economic and financial crisis.
Commerzbank predicts that the economy will decline by more than 11% in the second quarter, and Deutsche Bank predicts that the decline will even reach 14%.
05. France’s epidemic rebounded and economic activity dropped by 27%
Recently , cluster infection cases occur frequently in France. As of May 18, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in France has reached nearly 180,000, and the number of deaths has surpassed Spain, second only to the United States, the United Kingdom, and Italy.
The Bank of France said that due to the epidemic, France was under lockdown throughout April, and the country’s economic activity fell by 27% in April, with economic activities in various industries declining to varying degrees. , the most severely affected is the automobile industry, with an operating rate of only 8%.
06. The UK may enter the era of negative interest rates
As of May 18, Beijing time, the UK has accumulated There are more than 240,000 confirmed cases.
According to the British “Mirror” report, a study on unemployment during the COVID-19 epidemic showed that since the outbreak, nearly one-third of low-income people in the UK have lost their jobs. People have been forced to lay off or lose their jobs.
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer recently stated that an “economic recession” is already occurring in the United Kingdom. The government is trying its best to save more companies and has decided to extend the period of epidemic wage subsidies to 7.5 million people who are unable to work until October.
The deputy governor of the Bank of England said that at the upcoming Bank of England monetary policy meeting, it is likely to announce that the UK has entered an era of negative interest rates.
07. Spain’s state of emergency may be extended
Local time 5 On March 16, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez said that the Spanish government would once again apply to Congress to extend the national state of emergency for about one month.
He said that the new national emergency state will be implemented in different regions. At that time, some regions that meet the conditions for downgrading the prevention and control level can first lift the state of emergency.
It is reported that the Spanish government has previously issued new regulations stating that from May 15 until the end of the Spanish national emergency, people entering Spain from other countries must be forced to quarantine in their residences. 14 days. Cross-border staff and flight attendants who have not been in close contact with people diagnosed with COVID-19 are not subject to this regulation.
08. Italy officially reopens if the epidemic resurges or it is blocked again
Since Italy partially lifted its blockade measures on May 4, the epidemic has not rebounded, and the prevention and control situation is improving.
In this regard, on May 16, local time, Italian President Mattarella officially signed the “Restart Act” and approved the opening of Italy’s borders on June 3. However, if the epidemic resurges, the possibility of closing the border again cannot be ruled out. </p