According to feedback from several cotton seed manufacturers, cotton farmers and traders in India, since early May, cotton sowing in 2020 has been in full swing in the northern cotton areas of Punjab, Hayana and Rajasthan (mainly artificial irrigation) ); due to the arrival of monsoon and rainfall in the central cotton area and southern cotton area, the time is expected to be the same as in previous years or slightly delayed, so the sowing period will be concentrated in June and July.
According to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor’s report, India’s harvest area in 2020/21 is about 12.64 million hectares, and India’s cotton output is expected to be 28.5 million bales, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 2%; while Gujarat and Maharashtra Farmers and cooperative organizations generally believe that the year-on-year decrease in cotton planting area in India in 2020 will reach 4%-5%, which is higher than the estimates of USDA, CAI, CCI and other institutions.
Why is India’s cotton planting area likely to decline significantly in 2020? The author summarizes the views of Indian processing enterprises, traders and some farmers as follows (the issue of rupee exchange rate will not be discussed):
First, because the Indian government extended the national blockade for the third time to May 31, various The impact of cotton sowing preparation, agricultural input procurement, transportation and sowing in the main cotton-producing areas continues (Indian cotton planting is not highly mechanized, requires a lot of labor, and has frequent population movements);
Second, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, India’s domestic cotton consumption demand and exports of cotton, cotton yarn, gray fabrics, etc. have plummeted violently, and cotton prices have continued to fall. Although Indian cotton prices have been 12-15% lower than global prices since mid-May, it is still difficult to stimulate China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. The interest of buyers in other countries, low cotton prices have led to low enthusiasm among farmers and cooperatives to plant cotton;
Third, taking into account factors such as the epidemic, desert locusts and weather, the Indian government may increase MSP for food crops in 2020 Price increases, while cotton MSP prices remain stable or rise slightly, and the grain-cotton price ratio effect makes more farmers choose to “abandon cotton and switch to grain”;
Fourthly, in recent years, Indian cotton has been affected by weather and varieties. , management level and other factors are not “powerful”. The competitiveness of lint cotton yield, ginning quality, quality indicators, prices, etc. in the international market continues to decline. The trend of being “marginalized” by buyers is obvious. Export companies and ginning factories and cotton farmers’ lack of confidence. </p
