Open the K-line chart and find that Zheng Mian is slowly oscillating upwards. This kind of market situation is like boiling a frog in warm water. It is easiest for people to relax their vigilance. There is a contradiction in closing positions, stopping losses, or taking profits. The current market seems a bit confusing. There are sufficient reasons for the rise and fall. How to clear the fog requires a certain amount of knowledge and judgment.
The start of the market is inseparable from bullish factors. When the epidemic in Europe stabilizes, crude oil and the United States There has been a rebound in cotton, and as the domestic consumer market gradually picks up, it has stimulated an upward trend in cotton prices to a certain extent. The market now believes that the main reason why it is difficult for cotton prices to rebound appropriately is that consumption is still poor. Although the production of textile enterprises in some areas has shown signs of improvement, some enterprises are still struggling to operate. Orders and financial pressure have become two big mountains pressing on enterprises. , from time to time there will be news of business closures. In such a market environment, how can cotton prices rise? What’s more, Sino-US economic and trade frictions have never been interrupted, and the game between the two sides has become more intense. Therefore, most people in the market are not optimistic about cotton prices in the short term.
Under such pessimistic expectations, there are also a few people who are optimistic about cotton prices. Of course, this statement is not very standard. The accurate statement should be that there is insufficient momentum for cotton prices to fall in the short term and there is room for rebound. There will be some, but nothing too big. At present, spot resources in the market are not very sufficient. If you want to purchase cotton, you can only buy cotton at a fixed price from futures. Purchasing cotton at a fixed price means that there is upward momentum in the market. At such a price, smart funds will not go short easily, nor can hedging funds, and the market will not fall.
What is the logic of Zheng Mian’s rebound? According to the author’s understanding, it is an established fact that the downstream demand in the market is weak and there will be no significant change in the short term, which means that it is now in a weak and stable state. The upstream cotton production end faces certain uncertainties, especially the possibility of locusts attacking again due to weather changes. Sex, potential bullish prices on the production side. This is the rebound logic of the author’s simple analysis. Due to space limitations, it cannot be expanded upon. Whether it is correct or not needs to be verified by the market.
In the end, the author believes that cotton prices will still fluctuate in a range for a period of time, and the range will become wider. In particular, we must beware of the impact of black swan events on the market. </p
