As the market closed at 01:00 this morning, multiple Shanghai Nickel futures contracts suddenly plunged. Among them, the 2006, 2007, and 2011 contracts fell by the limit. The main contract 2007 fell by 8,360 yuan, or 8.01%, to 96,070 yuan/ton. Yesterday, Shanghai Nickel continued to rise after experiencing the previous day’s oscillation, once rising by more than 3%, reaching a three-month high.
There is speculation that this quotation may be due to a large order cut or an own error. The reason is not yet known clear. It is understood that one of the hidden problems in electronic trading in the current financial market is that once a huge order impact occurs at certain sensitive points, it may cause price changes in the absence of liquidity, and trigger programmed and arbitrage conditional orders. This further leads to price imbalance and cross-temporal, cross-market and cross-species follow-up.
Some market participants also told reporters from Futures Daily that some varieties are prone to extreme market conditions in night trading. Trading hours are long at night, and fewer people participate in the closing time. Especially in the last few minutes of closing, the market is thin, and combined with the external market situation, extreme market conditions are sometimes prone to occur.
In the early morning of this Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures safely passed the delivery day. The crazy selling last month did not reappear, but there are still concerns about negative oil prices in April. Controversies are still ongoing. Among them, as one of the protagonists of negative oil prices in April, the U.S. Oil Fund, the largest ETF in the crude oil market, has become the target of public criticism. In traditional theory, ETFs can provide lower risks than spot and futures markets. However, the American Oil Fund personally demonstrated last month: Who said ETF risks are low?
In fact, regulators and the media smelled danger long before the oil price plummeted. Data at the time showed that the holdings of the U.S. Oil Fund accounted for nearly 25% of all open positions in WTI crude oil futures, the largest trading volume. The huge size of the position worried regulators and triggered criticism from the outside world. Many people believed that the U.S. Oil Fund had worsened the situation. The collapse of oil prices. When negative oil prices hit in April, the U.S. Oil Fund suffered heavy losses. The stock price plummeted 43% in two days, hitting a record low, and was forced to suspend trading.
Last night, the regulatory ice was finally “broken.” The U.S. Crude Oil Fund said it was informed by its broker Royal Bank of Canada that the fund cannot currently purchase more crude oil futures due to the intervention of U.S., British and Canadian regulators.
According to Bloomberg, the latest regulatory documents disclosed show that regulators have put pressure on the U.S. crude oil fund to limit the size of its rapid growth during the oil price collapse; in recent weeks, due to Retail investors predicted that the oil market would hit bottom, causing the fund to receive record inflows, which had an impact on oil prices; the U.S. Crude Oil Fund is seeking to hire more brokers, but has not yet reached an agreement with any other brokers. It’s unknown when restrictions imposed by RBC under regulators will be lifted.
In addition, Venezuela and Iran responded strongly to the latest US sanctions.
The Venezuelan government warned the United States not to block Iranian tankers from transporting gasoline to Venezuela, saying that “preventing these ships from reaching their destinations would violate humanity and constitute a crime.” The United States has dispatched warships to patrol the Caribbean waters near Venezuela in April in the name of “counter-narcotics”. There is a gasoline shortage in Venezuela due to the U.S. blockade and sanctions. Reuters reports that five Iranian tankers transport approximately 1.5 million barrels of gasoline and are expected to arrive in Venezuela at the end of May or early June. The Venezuelan military stated that after the five Iranian oil tankers arrived in Venezuelan territorial waters, the Venezuelan military would send ships and aircraft to escort them.
According to a report by Iran’s official news agency Yitong on the 21st, Iranian President Rouhani said in response to the United States’ increase in sanctions on Iran’s Minister of Interior, Chief of Police and other officials and institutions. , sanctions and pressure will not affect Iran’s development, and the United States cannot make Iran surrender. Whether it is the new coronavirus or US sanctions, they can only have a certain impact on Iran, but they will never stop Iran from moving forward. Iran will continue to strengthen economic production.
U.S. stocks closed this morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling about 100 points, and component stock Boeing rising more than 4%. The three major traditional automakers bucked the market trend and all rose, with Ford rising more than 2%. Norwegian Cruise Line rose nearly 10%. Exxon Mobil fell more than 1%, but Chesapeake Energy rose more than 6%. Consumer stock BJ Wholesale Club rose more than 21% to a new high. Among the five major FAANG technology stocks, only Facebook closed higher and reached a new high. Luckin Coffee plunged again by double digits on the second day after trading resumed.
In terms of commodities, U.S. oil rose for the sixth consecutive time; the U.S. dollar index rose for the first time this week, out of the trough of the month; gold fell more than 1% and hit a new low in a week; Lun, Tonglun and Zinc fell by two At monthly highs, Lun, Aluminum, Nickel hit a two-month high; U.S. soybeans fell 1.32%; U.S. soybean meal fell 1.02%; U.S. soybean oil fell 0.91%; U.S. sugar fell 2.50%; U.S. cotton rose 0.12%.
The two sessions are expected to be positive, and metals are generally performing strongly
Kinrui Futures analyst Huang Zhiming said that the recent performance of the nonferrous market has been relatively positive, which has the common influence of several aspects: first, the macroeconomic policies are relatively positive, central banks around the world are constantly easing, and the U.S. stock market has also been repaired to a certain extent; second, It is the market’s policy expectations for the two sessions and macro risk appetite.This shows that market expectations for crude oil fundamentals have reversed significantly, pessimism has subsided, optimism is accumulating, and the crude oil market has stabilized. Yuan Ming, an energy and chemical analyst at Nanhua Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily. In terms of supply, the oil market has responded positively to OPEC+’s production reduction actions and implementation. In addition to OPEC+ already implementing production reduction actions, Saudi Arabia will reduce OPEC+ production next month. On the basis of the agreement, an additional unidirectional production cut of 1 million barrels per day is also expressing to the market the determination of major oil-producing countries to strictly control supply in the coming time. On the demand side, Europe and the United States are resuming work and production, and crude oil demand is the highest. The pessimistic moment has passed, and a gradual improvement on the demand side is being realized. Investors’ improved expectations for the fundamentals of the oil market have driven the recent strength of the oil market.
Yuan Ming believes that the short-term oil market needs to pay attention to the inventory situation of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. crude oil inventories have recorded declines for two consecutive weeks. If the inventory decline shows a trend, it means that the recovery of the oil market has begun. On the right track. At the same time, it is now close to late May, and some institutions will also evaluate OPEC+’s production cuts in May, which also needs attention. “The rapid rise in oil prices has reached the lower edge of the previous market gap, and there is technically a There is a certain amount of pressure, and we must be wary of adjustments in oil prices in the short term. “Yuan Ming reminded, but he is still optimistic about the rise in oil prices in the medium term.
“Thanks to the continued rebound in international oil prices and domestic The convening of the two sessions will release positive expectations. Domestic chemical commodity prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. Among them, asphalt, fuel oil, and liquefied gas mainly rebounded in a cost-driven manner driven by higher crude oil. “Wen Wuchao, a chemical analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, said that PTA and MEG have seen marginal improvement in the circulation inventory link and their own supply pressure. Methanol has been relatively weak in rebounding due to domestic and foreign supply pressure, and storage capacity pressure will restrict future prices from rising further.
Styrene was driven by the “One Helmet, One Belt” notice issued by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security last weekend and is used as an upstream raw material for ABS, the raw material for helmet production. Styrene increased significantly at the beginning of the week, but in the middle of this week, the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security once again issued a document that it is not mandatory to wear helmets for electric vehicles, and the styrene hype has cooled down. It is understood that on the afternoon of May 21, the Guangdong Provincial Market Supervision Bureau The official WeChat issued a reminder and warning prohibiting malicious price increases of safety helmets. With the recent intensive release of demand for safety helmet products, the supply of safety helmets sold by some companies and platforms exceeds demand, and some operators and companies have even hoarded and maliciously increased prices.
In addition, in the context of rapid destocking of petrochemical inventories and low port inventories of plastics and polypropylene, domestic installations in the second quarter Expectations for maintenance have stimulated speculative demand in the market. “However, the downstream plastics and polypropylene are currently in the seasonal off-season. In addition, after the opening of the early import window, external supply will gradually arrive in the second quarter. The supply-side pressure in the later period cannot be ignored, and plastics need to be paid close attention to.” , Polypropylene external import data changes, industry players can gradually realize spot profits and arrange hedging positions upon rebound. “Wen Wuchao suggested.
“The recent rebound in asphalt is mainly driven by rising oil prices, and its own fundamentals have not A particularly large improvement, supply and demand are only in a weak balance. “Jin Xiao, chief analyst of Nenghua at Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute, told reporters that there were some data worthy of attention last week, such as a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts for asphalt, with an increase of nearly 70,000 tons, all of which were factory warehouse receipts. “Of course these The registration of a warehouse receipt does not necessarily mean that it is a new position created by the refinery. Currently, there is less than one month left until the delivery of the June contract, and the release of factory warehouse receipts will bring more pressure to the June contract. “Jin Xiao said, but in absolute terms, there is not much room for asphalt to decline significantly. He said that if there is a serious surplus of raw materials and the demand for end products remains unchanged, in this case asphalt should indeed enjoy high-priced processing Profits. But whether processing profits can be sustained will depend on many other factors.
Jin Xiao introduced that, first of all, crude oil The weakness in prices is mainly caused by the lockdown policies adopted by major consuming countries under the impact of the epidemic, which has caused the demand for refined oil to be almost paralyzed. With the beginning of the unblocking, the demand for refined oil has a greater momentum of marginal improvement, which has a great impact on the formation of oil prices. The driving factors of suppression are beginning to weaken at the margin. Secondly, in a high-profit environment, refineries can form constraints on asphalt supply. “If not, it is obvious that the high-profit state cannot be maintained. The asphalt processing industry itself has a relatively low technical threshold, and its capacity utilization rate has been at a low level for a long time. Judging from the characteristics of the industry itself, this industry cannot continue to provide high profits. “Jin Xiao said that before the end of the second quarter, the price difference between asphalt and crude oil will tend to decline, but there will be more twists and turns in the rhythm.
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