Physical crude prices are rising strongly almost everywhere from the Middle East to Siberia, from the North Sea to Latin America, underpinning a surge in futures markets.
The price of Brent crude oil on the ICE European Futures Exchange has nearly doubled in the past month, reaching around US$35 per barrel, and once fell Negative U.S. WTI crude oil futures also surged. All this is because global oil producers have cut supply by millions of barrels per day, tightening real supplies, and with China leading the way, demand has begun to pick up.
These developments have put many physical oil products at a premium of several dollars per barrel compared to their benchmark futures, whereas just a few weeks ago they were still at deep discounts. With the exception of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where Saudi crude flows in large quantities, prices for most physical grades have been rising for days or weeks. The strongest gains tend to be in oils most directly exposed to Chinese demand. Currently, demand in China has returned to levels close to a year ago.
Oil prices soared sharply, and the oil market tightened faster!
Russian ESPO crude oil, which is mainly shipped from the country’s Far East to Asian buyers, traded at a maximum premium of $3.50 a barrel over the Dubai benchmark crude price this week. Just last month, oil products shipped in June were priced at a discount of US$4.80 from the Dubai benchmark price.
According to unnamed traders, Iraqi Basra light and medium oil for June shipment sold at a price of $4.50-4.80 per barrel higher than the official selling price. Price sold to a Chinese buyer. The previous premium for May crude oil was US$2.50 and US$3.50 per barrel. In Angola, where China is a major customer, premiums have increased by about $1 in the past week, traders said. North Sea crude oil also rose sharply.
The strength underscores how quickly the oil market is tightening. While demand is picking up, OPEC and its allies are cutting global production by nearly 10 million barrels per day, and North American exploration companies are also rushing to stop drilling. “In short, OPEC+-led production cuts and global shutdowns are working,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Tran wrote in a research note.
While the bank had expected the oil market to be in supply shortages by the end of June or early July, “preliminary indicators show that the glut is clearing ahead of our forecast timeline,” he said. 4-5 weeks, the price is the same.
Polyester raw materials fluctuate with crude oil, and the unexpected shutdown of the 2.2 million tons/year PTA unit stimulates the market, and supply pressure is expected to decrease
The fluctuation of crude oil prices is still the main theme followed by polyester raw materials. The global oil market is accelerating to restore balance, forming a bullish support for the market. Recently, PTA has experienced cost-driven price increases. Stimulated by positive cost-side benefits, PTA has gained strong momentum. On the evening of the 19th, Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons PTA unit was temporarily shut down to boost the market. PTA futures market sentiment has revived, with prices leading chemical industry increases. As of the morning of May 20, May WTI crude oil rose 67.6% , PTA futures rose 9.4%.
Since May, Ningbo Liwan’s 700,000-ton PTA unit has been shut down due to an accident and restarted The time has not yet been determined; Hanbang’s 600,000-ton PTA unit has been shut down for maintenance for some reason; Shanghai Petrochemical’s 400,000-ton PTA unit has also officially implemented planned maintenance, with a deadline of about one month. The current PTA operating rate is still high, but Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million-ton unit and Xinjiang Zhongtai 1.2 million ton units each have maintenance plans for June. As can be seen from the table, there are maintenance plans for several units in June, but the current processing fee is at a high level of 700-800 yuan. The industry’s response to this maintenance is The situation is still cautious. According to the existing equipment maintenance schedule, if the above equipment maintenance can be implemented, then the PTA supply and demand gap in May will be around 250,000-300,000 tons. If Tongkun Jiaxing Petrochemical is added in June For installation, it is expected that the PTA supply and demand gap will deplete 30,000 tons. However, if Jiaxing Petrochemical is overhauled in July, the supply and demand gap in June will only accumulate about 40,000 tons. It can be seen that the supply and demand accumulation has eased. Whether PTA can achieve de-warehousing in the later period, the implementation of equipment maintenance is crucial.
At the same time, Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons PTA device is temporarily The shutdown has boosted the market. It is understood that Hanbang Petrochemical has a total production capacity of 2.9 million tons/year. In the early stage, a small production capacity of 700,000 tons has been shut down. In the evening, a large device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons/year has been shut down. It is initially expected that the shutdown will last 20 days. The domestic effective production capacity base of PTA is 52.39 million tons, and this production capacity accounts for 5.54%. According to the current load estimates of PTA and polyester, after the device is stopped, the continuous accumulation speed of PTA in the early stage has basically ended, and supply and demand are roughly in balance. It is estimated that the overall accumulated inventory in May will drop to around 200,000 tons, which is roughly 100,000 tons lower than the expected accumulated inventory data at the beginning of the month. It is expected that the supply pressure of PTA will decrease in the later period.
Polyester filament upstream and downstream have received strong support: textile orders have increased, and the start-up situation is better than at the end of April
From a polyester perspective, the sharp rise in crude oil and PTA has alsoThe production and sales of polyester filament are booming. From the perspective of downstream weaving, entering the second quarter, due to the concentrated cancellation and delay of early orders, resulting in a continued lack of market orders, manufacturers’ gray fabric inventories once triggered a warning line, especially for peripheral manufacturers, due to their high production capacity and greater inventory pressure, resulting in Most weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for production has obviously weakened, and they took at least 5 days of holidays during the May Day holiday, and some even took 7-10 days of holidays.
With the end of the holiday, major cluster manufacturers have resumed production one after another, but the situation is different from the situation surveyed before the holiday. What’s more, after returning from the May Day holiday, many manufacturers have increased their operating hours, and some companies are even operating at full capacity.
It is reported that the water spray start-up rate in Shengze and Changxing areas has increased to around 70-80%, and the Xiaoshao circular knitting machine is at 50%. The operating rate of knitting and warp knitting is also about 70%. Compared with the end of April, the market operating rate has generally increased by about 10%.
In addition, the recent sales of summer clothing fabrics are also better than in the previous period. Some manufacturers said that dozens of sales have been made after the holidays. Thousands of meters of orders. In the early stage, due to the lack of domestic and foreign trade orders, the inventory of manufacturers of imitation silk fabrics increased significantly. As the domestic trade market gradually recovered, the sales of imitation silk in the market were boosted. Some products even caused a wave of market demand due to tight supply. , among which last year’s best-selling product, matte SPH, stood out. The manufacturer said that downstream demand was good, the market popularity was obviously better than other products, and the price was also rising steadily.
However, it should be noted that the current textile foreign trade environment is still weak, and the European and American economic resumption process has placed orders for my country’s textile and clothing products The recovery of polyester products is good for the demand for polyester products and supports the market price and profits of polyester products. However, in late May, my country’s textile industry’s export orders to Europe and the United States have not yet substantially improved, and the entire demand recovery may require a transition period of January to February.
Therefore, overall, with the partial resumption of work and market in Europe and the United States, market expectations for global economic recovery have increased, mainly Oil-producing countries have maintained production cuts to support the market and the rebound in demand for refined oil products in Europe and the United States has reduced the pressure of excess crude oil. Bullish funds in May crude oil futures have the upper hand. Short-term crude oil futures may continue to rebound, directly boosting the domestic chemical fiber market. Under the support of short-term costs, the market price of the polyester industry chain has generally risen, but the degree of recovery of demand in the terminal textile market in the medium term will determine the height of the rebound in the industry chain. </p