According to statistics, Brazil exported 90,600 tons of raw cotton in April (140,000 tons in March), a month-on-month decrease of 35.6% and a year-on-year increase of 22.9%. China is still the largest contracted export and shipment destination of Brazilian cotton. Since July 2019, Brazil has exported nearly 1.8 million tons of cotton (only slightly more than 1 million tons in the same period of 2019), of which China purchases accounted for more than one-third.
According to my country’s customs statistics, Brazilian cotton accounted for 56.57% and 42% of my country’s imports in that month from January to February and March respectively; in April, due to the rapid growth of US cotton imports, the proportion exceeded 50% , Brazilian cotton was kicked off the “altar”, while the proportion of Indian cotton, West African cotton, Central Asian cotton, etc. continued to decline.
In 2019 and 2020, the Chinese cotton market has formed a two-dimensional situation of fierce competition and gaming between US cotton and Brazilian cotton. Due to a sharp decline in output and poor quality and price, Australian cotton is gradually drifting away from Chinese companies; S-6 in the Indian state of Gujarat is less attractive to Chinese buyers due to weather, variety and other reasons. Coupled with the MSP, Indian cotton is “poor in quality and low in price”. Its cost performance is lower than Brazilian cotton or even West African cotton, so it is criticized by textile mills and traders. Marginalized, while the planting area and total output of Brazilian cotton have continued to increase in recent years. Coupled with improved varieties, procurement and processing levels, lint quality, consistency, foreign fiber content, supply capacity and other indicators have challenged US cotton.
In April, Brazil’s CONAB estimated that Brazil’s cotton output in 2020 would be 2.88 million tons (unofficial forecast is 2.94 million tons). International cotton merchants and domestic large and medium-sized trading companies have started selling gongs in April and May 9/12 The monthly shipping date for Brazilian cotton (the earliest shipping date is August), but judging from feedback from buyers and sellers, Chinese buyers’ enthusiasm and attention to Brazilian cotton inquiries, orders, and orders in 2020 are significantly lower than in the previous year. “Pre-sale” “The situation is not ideal.
First, the first phase of the China-U.S. trade agreement has been strongly promoted and implemented. Chinese buyers not only purchased large quantities of 2019/20 U.S. cotton, but also became more enthusiastic about signing new cotton for 2020/21; second, Brazilian cotton The recent quotation of Brazilian cotton for the September/12 shipping date is only 0.30-0.50 cents/pound lower than the ME 36 price of US cotton for the January/March shipping date; it is close to the current bonded 2019/20 Brazilian cotton price, and the quotation is not very competitive; three This is due to the epidemic leading to a sharp decline in China’s cotton consumption in 2020 (some institutions predict that demand will be reduced by more than 1.5 million tons compared with 2019/20) and the supply of domestic cotton is very sufficient; fourth, the possibility of additional cotton import quotas with sliding scale and tax increase in 2020 is unlikely. big. </p
