Currently, mankind’s fight against the epidemic has entered the second half. There is no doubt about the outcome. Victory is only a matter of time. The key is how much cost and price mankind will pay. In the first half, the economic stagnation caused by social isolation has caused turmoil abroad. Whether to resume work or continue to isolate has become the most difficult choice currently faced by various countries.
In this fight against the epidemic, China has been the most successful. Of course, the second outbreak in Beijing has also given us a warning. We must be prepared for a protracted war. The impact on the economy must be long-term. This process cannot be eliminated in a short time, and this is also the most serious global economic crisis that mankind has encountered since the Great Depression in 1929.
It is undeniable that the price of Zheng cotton has only been hit below 10,000 yuan/ton twice since its inception, and then there was a “V” rebound. Faced with the catastrophe of the new coronavirus, it will be difficult for Zheng Mian to perform well for a period of time. Before the emergence of a vaccine, the new coronavirus will always be like the sword of Damocles hanging over mankind. As long as the epidemic prevention measures are slightly relaxed, the epidemic will rebound immediately, and it will not be easy to completely restore normal production and living order.
Huge crises also face attractive investment opportunities. The problem is that before the opportunities come out, you are still living in this market. What will be the future trend of Zheng Mian? Many people will analyze based on fundamental data. Of course, this is the most basic, but the data has little meaning in judging future trends. After all, the data comes out late and lags behind the development of the market. Now you don’t need to analyze to know that downstream demand is not good and industrial and commercial inventories are large. If the situation improves, the market price will not be the same as it is now.
The author believes that Zheng Cotton has recently shown a bottom-out trend and will still face greater upward pressure for a period of time. The trends of the CF2009 contract and the CF2001 contract will also diverge. In a bear market, the futures price will return in the delivery month and the price will fall to the lowest. This has been proven. On the contrary, in the bull market, the price will rise to the highest. The principle will not be explained too much here. It is conceivable that the CF2009 contract is expected to have another bottoming process. No matter what the bottom price is, it will be the lowest price. After that, the contract price will fluctuate upward.
According to the progress of vaccine development, there is a high probability that the vaccine will be available next year. By then, the haze of the epidemic that has plagued the world will be swept away. The major viral disasters that humans have experienced in the historical tide of the past thousand years have proven countless times. . After experiencing this brief pause, the world economy will still glow with new vitality.
Of course, don’t be too optimistic about the market price. Xinjiang cotton is now in the stage of large-scale budding. According to the current situation, Xinjiang cotton output may increase slightly this year. Coupled with the fact that cotton consumption has decreased this year, Business inventories will remain high next year. In addition, the trend of Sino-US economic and trade relations will also have an important impact on cotton prices. During the economic and trade friction between the two countries last year, the price of Zheng cotton fluctuated at 13,000-14,000 yuan/ton. Judging from the current feedback, the honeymoon period between China and the United States is gone forever. As long as there are no major supply problems, cotton prices will hardly have a trend, but there will be a certain investment value.
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