In 2020, an oil price war broke out between Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States. In order to protect the shale oil industry, the United States has its left hand threatening Saudi Arabia to cut production, and its right hand suppressing Russia’s rights protection with rising oil prices in mind. For this reason, U.S. WTI crude oil futures plummeted, resulting in an unprecedented settlement price of -$37/barrel, which affected Bank of China’s “Crude Oil Treasure” customers.
A teacher who never forgets the past and the future. The author read the book “America’s Oil War” published by Petroleum Publishing House and gained a deeper understanding of the “Three Kingdoms Killing” staged by Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States. The description in the book shows that Americans began to maintain their oil hegemony through various means not only today, but as early as a hundred years ago. The author of the book is former CIA expert Steven Pelletier. He has done extensive research on international oil politics and has specifically analyzed the domestic situation in Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. During the 1991 Gulf War, he led a Pentagon working group studying the military in Iraq. This book is his review and commentary of his personal experience in the CIA. He pointed out: “The rich oil resources in the Middle East have attracted Western industrial capitalist countries to continuously penetrate into this region. The United States strives to control this region through war and various means. They fund so-called allies, constantly provoke wars, and support wars by One side successfully sent troops to weaken the anti-American forces in the Gulf region.” The central idea of the book can be summarized in one sentence: for the sake of oil interests, the United States and other Western countries have artificially created chaos in the Gulf countries for hundreds of years!
Britain and the United States compete for oil dominance in Gulf countries
Currently, The United States has the say in world oil. In addition to its futures market affecting oil pricing, the U.S. military also controls the Gulf region, the most important oil resource, both of which greatly affect international oil interests. The author believes that before World War II, Britain had the right to speak about oil, and the Gulf region was within the British sphere of influence. Relying on the barrel of a gun, Britain established oil companies in Iran and Iraq successively and controlled the oil business of these two countries. Before World War I, the United Kingdom signed a series of “concession agreements” for oil exploration with Iran and Iraq, obtained unequal “petroleum operating concessions”, and enjoyed the benefits brought by the “lease contracts” of these two major oil resource countries in the Gulf region. most of the benefits. After World War I, the United States, which had become stronger, coveted Britain’s oil interests in the Gulf region and “imitated” its efforts to seek “oil concessions.” Now that the sphere of influence has been divided, the United States launched an “open door” policy to compete with Britain for sphere of influence.
How can you allow others to sleep soundly on the side of the couch? Britain restricted the United States, but the United States refused and demanded “equal interests” with Britain. The First World War caused Britain to owe huge debts to the United States. As a compromise, Britain had to allow the United States to enter the Gulf region to share oil interests. The United States began to encroach on Britain’s Gulf territory. At that time, the Gulf region was home to oil companies around the world and had huge strategic interests. The United States was still an oil-exporting country and did not need to import oil. It only squeezed into the Gulf region to obtain derived benefits from the oil in the Gulf region. For example, it controls oil maritime transportation lines, sells arms to provide armed protection, and promotes petrodollars, thereby extending the United States’ global hegemony. However, at that time, most U.S. oil companies were content to look for oil in oil-rich North America and had little interest in oil in the distant Gulf region. However, for the global strategic interests of oil, the U.S. government used preferential policies to encourage and promote U.S. companies. Go out and get the oil.”
Before World War II, Saudi Arabian oil had not yet emerged. Iran and Iraq were the main oil resource countries in the Gulf region, and the United Kingdom controlled the oil resources of these two countries. However, through subsequent manipulation by the U.S. government, the United States and Britain soon became evenly matched. The oil companies of the two countries controlled 70% of the world’s crude oil production, but the United States was not satisfied with this. At the end of World War II, Roosevelt said to the British: “The oil in the Persian Gulf is yours, the oil in Iraq and Kuwait is shared by us, and the Saudi oil belongs to us.” Soon, the United States obtained Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Bahrain. and other oil concessions in Gulf countries. Over time, the oil dominance in the Gulf region is firmly in the hands of the Americans.
Robbery under the bayonet
Oil exploration, extraction and transportation are A very technical job with a very high technical content. Although Iran, Iraq and other Gulf countries have abundant oil reserves, they do not have the technology to operate these oil fields. Therefore, they can only rely on the United Kingdom and the United States to obtain limited benefits under the “operating concessions” of their oil companies.
Under the protection of the guns of their own governments, British and American oil companies forced the Gulf countries to sign a series of unequal treaties. They lease land in Gulf countries to exploit oil and pay very low land concessions to oil-exporting countries, and the concessions are linked to oil prices. Oil prices are determined by oil companies, and the pricing process is opaque. They generally keep oil prices very low, because the lower the price, the less land rent paid to oil resource countries, and the more oil companies make. This is an unequal agreement with a “carrot and a stick” under the knife. The Gulf countries know that they are suffering, but they dare not get angry.The oil war in the Gulf states.
After reading this book, I deeply feel that the author named this book “America’s Oil War” is very appropriate. We must have a clear understanding of the strategic thinking of the United States’ oil war. and countermeasures.
Two points of inspiration
First, our country must have an import bay Oil risk hedging measures. Most of our country’s oil supplies come from the Gulf region, and we have to obtain oil supplies in the long-term chaos in the Gulf region. In addition, the main transportation line for my country’s oil is from the Persian Gulf to the Pacific Ocean and into the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca. With this transportation line in the hands of the United States, it is very easy for them to suppress China’s oil demand. Therefore, our country must have active response measures and consider hedging methods for this risk.
The first is to strive for diversification of crude oil supply. Currently, China is also reducing oil imports from the Gulf region, while supplies from Russia, Central Asia, South America, and Africa are increasing. This strategy needs to persist. Second, transportation lines are diversified. At present, in addition to the traditional channel through the Strait of Malacca, our country has added transportation channels in Russia in the north, inland Central Asia in the northwest, and on the sea between the southwest border and Myanmar. However, for a long time, more than 85% of my country’s oil will still have to pass through the Malacca Strait channel controlled by the United States. Therefore, it is also a very urgent task to speed up the security construction of my country’s South China Sea and at the same time increase the national strategic oil reserves.
Second, my country must have countermeasures against the hegemony of petrodollars. Since the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a secret agreement to price and settle oil in US dollars in the 1970s, petrodollars have quickly gained huge influence in the world. From the perspective of the financial market, after Gulf countries obtain U.S. dollars from oil transactions, they use these U.S. dollars to buy U.S. weapons and U.S. bonds, giving Wall Street opportunities to underwrite and trade securities. The U.S. futures market uses U.S. dollars for pricing and settlement of commodities led by oil. All countries in the supply chain of commodities such as oil are stockpiling U.S. dollars in preparation for purchases, strengthening the U.S. dollar’s function as an international reserve currency. The unconstrained U.S. dollar supply mechanism means that the U.S. Treasury Department can obtain huge seigniorage taxes by simply turning on the money printing press, and a piece of American paper can purchase goods all over the world. This has led to many benefits of U.S. dollar hegemony. We should work hard to change this state. Although it will be difficult to do so for quite some time, we should work hard to do it.
In March 2018, my country has launched oil futures priced and settled in RMB in the futures market. This market is currently growing. Over time, RMB will gradually replace part of the US dollar in oil transactions. The effect will definitely show up. On July 27, 2019, the New York Times published an article saying that Kissinger believed that the petrodollar was about to “end its life”. Times had changed and Trump was on the wrong path. If Trump is allowed to On this road, the status of the US dollar will only be replaced by the RMB, and the Pentagon’s influence will become weaker and weaker in the future. Therefore, considering the overall situation, our country should vigorously support the development of Shanghai’s international oil futures market in all aspects so as to be able to hedge the risks of US dollar oil within a certain range. </p
