Before the National Day holiday, the PTA market was in a weak and volatile market, dragged down by costs. During the holidays, the domestic PTA market was calm, with market prices maintaining pre-holiday levels. After the holidays, there was no significant improvement in the fundamentals of PTA supply and demand, and the PTA market remained weak and difficult to change.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From a cost perspective, affected by news such as Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 and the landing of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the international crude oil market fluctuated violently in the past week, but it was not a holiday. Afterwards, oil prices rebounded strongly, and the cost side provided strong support for the PTA market. At the same time, PX prices have consolidated, with Asian CFR prices maintaining at US$535/ton. However, the supply in the PX market is still high, so the increase is limited.
From the supply side, the domestic PTA market supply has been generally stable recently. Before the holiday, a 2.2 million-ton unit in Jiangyin Hanbang will be shut down for maintenance on September 29, and the period is tentatively scheduled to be around one month. During the holidays, BP Zhuhai’s 1.25 million ton unit warmed up and restarted. So far, two BP Zhuhai units that were temporarily shut down due to malfunctions have returned to normal operation. At the same time, a 1.2 million ton unit in Xinjiang Zhongtai was officially shut down for maintenance nearby on October 6. As of October 9, PTA social inventory is about 3.495 million tons. Although some PTA devices are still expected to be overhauled, the 2.2 million-ton new device of Dushan Energy Phase II has entered the equipment commissioning stage, and the PTA market supply may still be maintained in the short term. high position.
From the demand side, the start of polyester production fluctuated slightly and remained at 88.99%. As the holiday comes to an end, crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up downstream quotations and active order transactions in the terminal weaving market. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of short fiber is 5-8 days, the overall inventory of filament is 17-24 days, POY inventory is 9-17 days, FDY inventory is 16-24 days, and DTY inventory is 29-41 days.
On the whole, the overall demand performance of PTA downstream during the holidays is acceptable, the supply is generally stable, and the changes in fundamentals are limited. As crude oil prices stop falling and stabilize in the market outlook, the PTA market is expected to rebound, but with new equipment about to be put into production, the rebound will not be too strong. </p
