During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays that just passed, the textile industry once became “hot”, and workers began to work overtime.
On the first day of the Double Festival holiday, Meng Zhuo, manager of Anhui Garment Import and Export Co., Ltd. He told reporters that the factory was closed for two days during the eight-day statutory holiday and “basically returned to the state before the epidemic.” In Anhui, most textile factories focus on autumn and winter clothing, so autumn also ushered in the usual peak domestic sales season. Coupled with the fact that the backlog of market demand in the second quarter was released in the third quarter, the recovery of orders has accelerated significantly.
Meng Zhuo also said that the textile and clothing industry has recently spread the saying that “this year will have the coldest winter in 60 years”, which has also caused the inflow of hot money from some non-clothing industries.
There are also industry media reports that a large number of textile orders originally produced in India have flowed to China due to the epidemic, causing many factories to start an overtime mode that has been rare this year. It is precisely because of this that the entire textile industry chain upstream and downstream became extremely restless after the holiday. Polyester filament yarns changed from weak production and sales and increased in volume.
Production and sales are booming, and the price of polyester filament has been rising after the holiday.
October Five days later, as the international oil price rebounded, the market atmosphere improved, and the downstream willingness to purchase goods was strong. On October 6-7, polyester filament production and sales partially recovered, and some quotations were raised by 50-150 yuan/ton. FDY and DTY shipments were relatively Well, the willingness of enterprises to increase prices has not diminished, and the oil price trend has continued to rise after the holiday. With the support of the cost side, the quotations of enterprises have continued to rise by 50-150. However, the cash flow losses of polyester yarns in the early stage have been serious, and enterprises have a strong willingness to protect their capital, so polyester yarn transactions have been completed after the holiday. The center of gravity continues to rise. At the close of trading, the mainstream discussion of POY 150D/48F was around 5,200 yuan/ton, which was 150-200 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday.
The rebound in oil prices has provided the initial impetus for price increases in the polyester filament industry chain. The subsequent driving force comes from demand-side support. According to the survey, downstream purchasing willingness increased in the later part of the holiday. Some companies reported that local production and sales picked up from October 6th to 8th. The production and sales of some companies were 100-200%, and the production and sales of some companies were above 300%. The inventory pressure of enterprises has eased, and on the first trading day after the holiday, some polyester yarn production and sales continued to increase in volume.
As shown in the figure above, the average daily production and sales are above 160%, and the higher production and sales are 200%-400%. The production and sales of FDY and DTY in the Xiaoshao area are relatively good. Individual POY factories have not experienced much growth and are mainly shipping. The production and sales are around 200%-300%.
The “herding effect” has been formed, and leading yarn companies have collectively raised prices
In response, Compared with the increase of polyester filament, the big movement of cotton yarn is the most obvious.
Back after the holiday, as Zheng cotton futures opened higher, the third round of cotton yarn price increases came into effect. Today, a leading company in Liaocheng, Shandong Province increased by 300-800 yuan/ton. , a leading enterprise in Binzhou, Shandong Province increased by 500-1,000 yuan/ton, a leading enterprise in Anhui increased by 1,000-1,500 yuan/ton, a leading enterprise in Shanghai increased by 500-1,000 yuan/ton, and a leading enterprise in Jiangsu increased by 300-500 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton, there are still expectations for price increases in the market outlook. Moreover, as the price of cotton yarn rises, the price of gray cloth also increases by 0.1-0.3 yuan/meter. So far, the cotton industry chain has formed a resonant rise in the entire cotton and textile industry chain.
It is understood that after four months of unilateral decline, cotton yarn began to bottom out and rebound in early September, with the first increase of 300-500 yuan/ton in early September and the second increase in late September. The second wave of price increases was 300-500 yuan/ton. In October, the cotton yarn market ushered in the third wave of price increases of 300-1,000 yuan/ton. So far, the cumulative increase in cotton yarn has been 500-2,000 yuan/ton. The “herd effect” of cotton yarn price increases has taken shape. . According to analysis, under the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, the price increase of cotton yarn is mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the improvement of demand margin, and the market expectations are basically consistent.
With the arrival of the traditional peak season, domestic demand has started slowly, and the margin of cotton yarn demand has continued to improve. During the Double Festival, the transactions on major platforms have increased significantly month-on-month. In terms of foreign trade, the United States has relaxed its control over China’s Xinjiang cotton, the wait-and-see atmosphere for foreign trade orders has declined, and China’s textile and apparel exports continue to increase in volume. Some textile enterprises have reported that orders for some 32 and 40 varieties are scheduled until the end of the year, and some orders for 60 combed tights are scheduled until the end of October. The destocking speed of cotton yarn has been significantly accelerated.
On the other hand, raw material prices continue to rise. In early October, the factory price of Xinjiang machine-picked cotton on Double 28 in Mainland China was 13,400-13,800 yuan/ton. Some customers reported that the price of new cotton cotton has risen to More than 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 1,500 yuan/ton from late March. As a result, cotton spinning enterprises suffered losses during processing. By the beginning of September, the loss per ton of cotton yarn was about 1,500 yuan/ton. Continued losses forced enterprises to limit production or even suspend production. Cotton spinning enterprises have “thought about rising for a long time.”
As cotton prices fluctuate and rise, the peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is slowly coming, and foreign trade orders are coming one after another. Things are getting better. At the end of August, some cotton spinning companies raised the yarn price by 100-300 yuan/ton in a restorative manner. It will be updated in September.Many companies have joined the price increase sequence, and the increase in cotton yarn has expanded to 300-500 yuan/ton. Entering October, the growth rate of cotton yarn further expanded, and the profits of cotton spinning companies slowly recovered. In the short term, as the price of raw materials fluctuates and rises, the demand margin continues to improve. It is expected that cotton yarn prices will still have room to rise, and the expected rise in the fourth quarter remains unchanged.
It is reported that the current market shipments of velvet fabrics in autumn are good, and the market demand for home textiles, winter warm clothes, etc. has increased. Recently, industry players have paid more attention to the La Nina phenomenon and believe that it will be affected by the secondary climate. The impact is that this year may be a “cold winter”, which has increased the demand for winter fabrics to a certain extent. During the National Day holiday, residents’ consumption levels have increased significantly, giving the market a certain confidence boost. However, the La Niña phenomenon refers to the abnormally cold seawater in the central and eastern Pacific. The situation is a relatively extreme weather change phenomenon, and it will also bring about global climate abnormalities. The emergence of the La Niña phenomenon will cause drought on the east coast of the world and humidity on the west coast. The sea water temperature will be lower than normal by more than 0.5°C for six consecutive months, and may even be accompanied by hurricanes, heavy rains, and severe cold. However, it does not mean that the trend of global warming will be reversed. National Day holiday Temperatures have dropped sharply, but it is still unknown whether there will be extremely severe weather in winter. Therefore, there are still many variables as to whether terminal demand will continue to pick up.
In the long term, although China’s purchasing managers’ index has rebounded significantly recently, the recovery momentum of manufacturing industries such as textiles and apparel is still insufficient, and the proportion of companies reflecting insufficient market demand is even lower. More than 50%, higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry.
In addition, textiles and clothing are a typical export-oriented industry. The epidemic abroad is still out of control. The risk of the epidemic spreading again in Europe and the United States has increased significantly recently, and textiles and clothing are still facing demand. There is a problem of large year-on-year decline, so we still need to be alert to the risk of raw material price cuts in the long term. It is recommended that textile companies pay close attention to Sino-US relations, strengthen risk hedging, and operate with caution. </p
