The performance of PTA’s cost side and demand side is relatively warm, providing certain support, but PTA prices are still suppressed by high inventory. Whether PTA can go to the warehouse in October still depends on whether the previously rumored maintenance of Yisheng (Hainan), Hengli, Honggang and other equipment can be implemented. If it can be implemented, PTA is expected to go to the warehouse in October with 100,000-150,000 tons. Up and down, the price may rebound in stages. On the contrary, PTA will enter a accumulation cycle and the price will continue to oscillate weakly.
Affected by news such as Trump’s infection with the epidemic, repeated U.S. stimulus policies, hurricanes and other news, crude oil exited the deep V market in early October. PX, the direct raw material of PTA, rebounded slightly by US$16/ton to US$536/ton. The PTA processing gap was relatively stable, ranging from 530 yuan/ton before the National Day to 570 yuan/ton at the latest.
Terminal orders began to pick up significantly in the second half of the holiday. The corresponding loom and texturing loads both hit new highs during the year, reaching 91% and 93% respectively. The inventory of gray fabric products also dropped significantly by 1.5% in early October. About days. The improvement in orders has also led to an increase in terminal stockings. The production and sales of polyester yarn, PTA’s main downstream product, have been increasing for many consecutive days, and the daily production and sales of some factories have reached 200%-600%. As of October 11, the average production and sales of polyester factories were above the level, and the price per ton of polyester products has therefore increased by 100-200 yuan. Some varieties of POY and FDY have returned to near the break-even point, and product inventories have dropped significantly.
In September, due to the impact of the load reduction and maintenance of Yisheng (Ningbo), Reignwood, Sanfangxiang, Liwan Petrochemical, and Fuhai Chuang, as well as the short stoppage of two units of Zhuhai BP, the final domestic PTA output It fell between 4.1 million and 4.15 million tons, a month-on-month decrease, and social inventory was slightly reduced by 100,000 tons.
Currently, all short-stop devices in Zhuhai have been restarted. Xinfengming Phase II of 2.2 million tons is scheduled to start operation after the holiday. At the same time, Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons and Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons have started to reduce their load at the end of September. Maintenance is expected to take 30 days and 60 days respectively. Yizheng Chemical Fiber 650,000 tons and Sichuan Energy Investment 1 million tons also have maintenance plans, but no specific maintenance dates have been announced. Yisheng (Hainan) 2 million tons, Hengli 2.2 million tons, Honggang 1.5 million tons and other equipment also have maintenance rumors.
If it is estimated based on the equipment that has been confirmed for maintenance, the PTA load will increase significantly in October, and domestic PTA output is expected to reach 4.3 million tons in October. If it is rumored that all devices can be put on the ground for maintenance, PTA output in October is still expected to remain unchanged month-on-month.
Since September, there have been market rumors that textile orders that cannot be completed in India due to the epidemic will be transferred to China, and domestic demand is expected to increase. From the data point of view, the load of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 4% and 3% respectively to 79% and 82% in September, while the daily transaction volume of gray fabrics in China Textile City also increased by about 2 million meters. The gray fabrics of Shengze sample enterprises Inventories fell by about 1.5 days in September. Therefore, the polyester load did not decline as quickly as expected in September.
Looking at different products, the current cash flow and inventory levels of staple fibers are relatively good. The epidemic in Europe and the United States is in the midst of a second outbreak, and the load is expected to continue to operate at a high level. The shipment of bottle flakes before the festival was not good, the cash flow was close to the break-even point, and the La Niña phenomenon was superimposed. It is expected that the load will continue to decline seasonally. Among them, Wankai and Yizheng bottle flakes will be overhauled in October.
Judging from the post-holiday terminal load reaching a new high, polyester cash flow rebounding and inventory falling, the polyester load is expected to continue to stabilize in October, and in October Tongkun Heng exceeded 500,000 tons and Xinfengming has 300,000 tons of filament to be invested. According to comprehensive estimates, polyester output in October is expected to be close to 4.75 million to 4.8 million tons. </p
