The transaction price of outer yarn has dropped again and again after cooling off
According to customs statistics, In September 2020, my country imported 210,300 tons of cotton and 178,100 tons of cotton yarn, with year-on-year growth rates reaching 152.52% and 21.08%, both showing strong rebound and recovery momentum.
Cotton yarn traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places reported that bonded and customs clearance at ports will be delayed from late September to late October. Inquiries and shipments of outer yarn can be said to be “like a spring breeze coming overnight and thousands of pear trees blooming”. Some domestic fabric factories, garment factories, and middlemen have gone to ports such as Qingdao, Ningbo, Guangzhou, and Shanghai to “sweep goods.” Not only are 21S-32S conventional cotton yarns attracting attention and transactions are accelerating, but also OE yarns, Pakistan 8S-16S siro spinning yarns, and 40S-50S yarns from Vietnam, India, and Uzbekistan are also continuing to pick up.
A trader in Ningbo said that before late October, bonded Indian yarn, Pakistani yarn, Vietnamese yarn, and Central Asian yarn , Indonesian blended yarn sales are relatively hot. On the one hand, in the past month or so, foreign trade companies and processing plants in coastal areas have received a certain amount of “Double 11” and Christmas textile and clothing orders. Generally speaking, quality requirements are not high. Due to the short delivery time, cloth factories, fabric factories, and garment factories are rushing to place orders and request goods; on the other hand, due to the sudden outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 and the “high fever” of the epidemic in major textile and clothing consumption areas such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, “, the deterioration of Sino-US relations, the US presidential election in November and other influences, not only the inventory of raw materials in cloth and fabric factories is very low, but also the middlemen in the textile market have significantly “destocked” and even the inventory has bottomed out. Therefore, once consumer demand rebounds, the middlemen will Merchants took the lead in starting replenishment, hoarding, and selling. Of course, the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate since September and the postponement of the United States’ extensive ban on products from China’s Xinjiang to the end of November have directly stimulated the import of cargo and port-bonded cotton yarn.
However, as the Zheng Cotton CF2101 contract price continued to fall from 15305, domestic demand for terminal textiles and clothing and foreign trade orders were obvious. Slow down, and the wait-and-see mood is heating up. Although domestic cotton spinning mills are holding up prices and are reluctant to sell, in order to reduce inventories, reduce pressure, and protect employment, they have to passively lower cotton yarn quotations again and again; in addition, in recent days, the RMB Depreciation (on October 27, the offshore RMB exchange rate surged 347 basis points, approaching 6.72, and the industry is worried that the RMB will expand the scope for depreciation again). The price difference between imported cotton yarn and domestic cotton yarn has narrowed again, and the competitiveness of ship cargo and bonded yarn has been weakened.
Several weaving companies and traders in Henan, Shandong, Zhejiang and other places said that for more than a week, the internal and external cotton yarn prices The preferential and profit margins have been significantly expanded compared to August and September. “As long as there is a solid order, the price is easy to negotiate.” The price of Indian cotton yarn in the external market of 40S and above is “remaining high”, and traders are “compared with every penny.” Therefore, inquiries and transactions have cooled down rapidly. Overall, the replenishment efforts of both weaving mills and cotton yarn traders have weakened to varying degrees.
Polyester short-term prices are weak and real orders are discussed for shipment
The performance of viscose staple fiber is stable, factory prices are firm, downstream yarn mills mainly digest early orders, and the short-term market is difficult to change. However, as downstream orders are digested in stages, the price of viscose staple fiber is expected to continue to rise. The price of mid-end viscose staple fiber is 10,500-10,600 yuan/ton, and the price of high-end viscose staple fiber is 10,800-11,000 yuan/ton.
Short fiber futures fell, the trading atmosphere of polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was deserted, shipments were discussed, and the mainstream quotation of 1.4D was 5800- The price is about 6,000 yuan/ton, and the actual order negotiation is slightly lower, or around 5,600-5,750 yuan/ton, and the actual order is negotiated one by one. Fujian polyester staple fiber manufacturers have lowered their quotations and are mainly negotiating shipments. 1.4D quotations are 6,000-6,100 yuan/ton for short-distance delivery. Negotiations for actual orders may be around 5,800-5,900 yuan/ton. Shandong and Hebei polyester staple fiber are negotiating for delivery, and the price is weak. The negotiated price of 1.4D semi-gloss may be 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the actual order is negotiated.
The demand side starts
The polyester filament market welcomes “silver Ten” Quotes
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic polyester filament market rebounded strongly in October, among which polyester DTY had the largest increase, and the specification 150D/48F low elasticity increased by 8.94% that month, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY, the increases were 6.36% and 4.51% respectively.
The average market price of polyester filament in October, unit: yuan/ton
The demand side starts, ushering in the “Silver Ten” market, during the National Day , the rebound in oil prices provided the initial impetus for the price increase in the polyester filament industry chain, and subsequently the demand side received favorable support. Overseas textile industry orders are flowing into the country. At the same time, as “Double Eleven”, Christmas, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching, the domestic and foreign textile and clothing markets have rebounded significantly. The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in September 2020, textile and clothing exports increased to US$28.37 billion. 18.2%, of which textile exports were US$13.15 billion, an increase of 35.8%, and clothing exports were US$15.22 billion, an increase of 6.2%.
In addition, the expected cold winter this year has led to better shipments of velvet fabrics in autumn, increased market demand for home textiles, winter warm clothes, etc., and factory orders have been maintained until 11 Near the beginning of the month. For example, in the traditional market of China Textile City, the number of new autumn and winter fashion fabrics and casual top fabrics has increased, and the sales of many varieties have increased. The willingness to purchase downstream products increased in the latter part of the holiday. It is understood that local production and sales picked up from October 6th to 9th. The average production and sales of mainstream polyester filament yarn market manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas were 140%-160%, and the production and sales of individual companies with higher prices were above 300%. The inventory pressure of enterprises has eased. On the first trading day after the holiday, the volume and price of polyester yarns rose. In particular, DTY was well sold, and prices continued to rise. As of the 22nd, the increase was close to 10% compared with the beginning of the month.
However, as winter fabric purchases are basically exhausted, replenishment orders are not enough to maintain the market growth. At the same time, crude oil was weak and the new PTA production capacity was put into production, resulting in a slight decline in polyester filament prices. Production and sales are also running slowly. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are between 50% and 70%, and some better factories can reach 100%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 27-39 days, of which POY inventory is around 9-17 days, FDY inventory is around 20-39 days, and DTY inventory is around 28-39 days.
Xia Ting, an analyst at Business Club, believes that the current overall demand season is coming to an end, and November will usher in the traditional Off season. In addition, the epidemic situation abroad is still severe, and some countries and regions in Europe and the United States have once again adopted restrictive measures. There is still great uncertainty in the recovery of demand. Textile enterprises also have concerns, and they adopt a business strategy of market-watching and production-to-order for raw material procurement.
In addition, in the current raw material PTA market, crude oil is weak, and the downstream polyester speculation has ended and the price of new production capacity has increased. fall back. In the future, there will be pressure to release new production capacity, and there is no inventory inflection point in terms of inventory. As of October 23, social inventory was about 3.5 million tons, which was at a high level for the same period from 2016 to 2019. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in November and December. Overall, market supply is expected to remain loose, and upward drive is still insufficient.
Taken together, the polyester filament market released more bad news in November, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Businessmen remain cautious, and there may be a risk of a price fall.
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