The peak season of the traditional textile market has arrived. Orders in the downstream weaving market have increased significantly. The comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded to around 85%. Enthusiasm for orders, proofing, and inquiries are all better than in the previous period. In particular, orders for warp knitting machines have been slightly warmer than in the previous period, and the inventories of weaving manufacturers have also declined. The volume and price of polyester filament also rebounded in October.
According to price monitoring, the domestic polyester filament market rebounded strongly in October, among which polyester DTY saw the largest increase, with specification 150D. /48F low-elasticity fell 8.94% that month and 19.53% year-on-year, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY.
The average market price of polyester filament in October, unit: yuan/ton
National Day During this period, the rebound in oil prices provided the initial impetus for price increases in the polyester filament industry chain, and subsequently the demand side received favorable support. Overseas textile industry orders are flowing into the country. At the same time, as “Double Eleven”, Christmas, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching, the domestic and foreign textile and apparel markets have rebounded significantly.
In addition, the expected cold winter this year has led to better shipments of velvet fabrics, home textiles, winter warm clothes, etc. in the market in autumn. Market demand has increased, and factory orders are mostly maintained until around early November. For example, in the traditional market of China Textile City, the number of new autumn and winter fashion fabrics and casual top fabrics has increased, and the sales of many varieties have increased.
In the later part of the holiday, downstream purchasing willingness increased. It is understood that local production and sales picked up from October 6th to 9th, and polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas The average production and sales of mainstream major manufacturers in the filament yarn market are 140%-160%, and the production and sales of some relatively high companies are more than 300%. The inventory pressure of enterprises has eased. On the first trading day after the holiday, the volume and price of polyester yarns rose. In particular, DTY was well sold, and prices continued to rise. As of the 22nd, the increase was close to 10% compared with the beginning of the month.
Can the recovery of the terminal textile market and the recovery of its own production and sales stimulate the continued rise of polyester filament? However, as winter fabric purchases are basically exhausted, replenishment orders are not enough to maintain the market growth. At the same time, crude oil was weak and the new PTA production capacity was put into production, resulting in a slight decline in polyester filament prices. Production and sales are also running slowly. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are between 50% and 70%, and some better factories can reach 100%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 27-39 days, of which POY inventory is around 9-17 days, FDY inventory is around 20-39 days, and DTY inventory is around 28-39 days.
The current peak demand season is coming to an end, and November will usher in the traditional off-season. Judging from the global epidemic situation, as of October 24, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide has exceeded 42.4 million. Many European and American countries continue to lock down cities, and demand has still not fully recovered.
Although demand will drive up prices, it is difficult to double prices if demand has not fully recovered. There are many problems in the market. Some traders are also hoarding goods based on the mentality of buying up and not buying down. Therefore, rather than saying that the reason for the current hot market is the recovery of demand, it is more appropriate to say that it is the transfer of inventory. There is still great uncertainty in the recovery of demand, and textile companies also have concerns. After experiencing overcapacity in 2019 and the new crown epidemic in 2020, textile people are generally accustomed to “take one step and look at three steps”. Now we are in the full-year In the hottest market, there are many textile people with similar views, and this can also be seen from the production and sales of polyester.
According to data monitoring, after entering late October, the average production and sales of polyester filament in polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have changed from before The momentum of over 100 consecutive weeks has dropped to around 70%. On the one hand, this is because the replenishment of weaving companies has basically ended, and on the other hand, it is also because current cloth bosses have become more cautious about the purchase of raw materials.
In addition, the current weak consolidation of raw materials was affected by the significant increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week and the rebound of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States. International oil prices fell sharply on the 28th, falling by more than 5%. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$2.18 to close at US$37.39 per barrel, a decrease of 5.51%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell by US$2.08, It closed at US$39.12 per barrel, a decrease of 5.05%.
The price rise of downstream polyester has ended and the price of new production capacity has fallen. At the same time, there will be pressure to release new production capacity in the future, and there is no inventory inflection point in PTA inventory. As of October 23, social inventory was about 3.5 million tons, which was at a high level for the same period from 2016 to 2019. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in November and December. Overall, market supply is expected to remain loose, and upward drive is still insufficient.
Taken together, the polyester filament market released more bad news in November, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Businessmen remain cautious, and there may be a risk of a price fall.
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