1 How does the PTA industry make money?
PTA is a midstream industry in the chemical industry. The upstream is affected by oil prices, and the downstream is affected by the demand for polyester. The largest demand for polyester is polyester, a chemical fiber textile, accounting for 75% of the total demand. Therefore, the demand for PTA mainly depends on the recession of the textile industry.
How does the PTA industry make money?
2 Are PTA companies making money now?
3 Can PTA buy the bottom?
Next, let’s briefly analyze the fundamentals of PTA. I won’t go into specific data because this article is not an analysis report. Just talk about some conclusive things.
The picture below is the operating rate of PTA-related industries drawn by the fundamental quantitative system we developed. You can see from it:
On the supply side, the PTA operating rate has remained high this year, the industry is operating at full capacity, and social inventories remain high. It is said that the exchange delivery warehouse The storage capacity is full. And there will be a lot of new production capacity coming on stream in the next two years. (See picture below)
In summary, the supply side is very sufficient, and it is not an exaggeration to even describe it as a serious surplus.
On the demand side, this year’s epidemic has had a huge impact on the garment industry. Domestic demand has shrunk significantly, and exports have shrunk extremely. Therefore, the operating rate of the textile industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has not been high in the early stage. Run around 50%~60%. Around the National Day, with the approach of Double 11 and the peak season for textile demand at the end of the year, the textile operating rate began to rise significantly and has now reached full capacity. Therefore, it will support the price of PTA in the short term. However, the seasonality of this demand is relatively obvious and will be difficult to sustain in the future.
Looking at the disk, the current spot price is about 200 yuan behind futures. Under this negative basis structure, bulls are unwilling to enter the market to receive goods, and the delivery inventory is full, making it easy for shorts to occur. The market is bullish. Therefore, it is very risky to buy the bottom and go long.
To sum up, the mid- to long-term pattern of oversupply of PTA has not changed. Fundamentals do not support buying the dip and going long. However, due to low prices and seasonal demand peak seasons, the possibility of a slight rise in the short term is very high, so the risk of shorting at the current price is also high.
Therefore, the wisest choice at the moment is to wait and see.
To summarize, I will borrow Fu Haitang’s words. To grasp the big market trend, waiting patiently is a good idea. You must wait for major policy adjustments or major changes in the industry before taking action.
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