After a wave of ups and downs, Zheng Mian has recently returned to calm, with the amplitude continuously narrowing. The Wansi Pass has strong support. Although there was a short-term downward breakthrough, it quickly rebounded again. In the absence of clear directional guidance from the market, Zheng Mian is expected to maintain a slightly volatile trend.
Currently, cotton procurement in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the purchase price has dropped as the quality of seed cotton has declined. Among them, the purchase price of machine-picked cotton has dropped to about 6.0 yuan/kg, which means that the cost of lint purchase and processing will continue to decrease this year, especially in southern Xinjiang. , the price dropped by more than 1.0 yuan/kg. Originally, the cost of lint cotton in southern Xinjiang was high, which provided certain support for futures and spot prices. However, with the outbreak of emergencies such as the epidemic, the cost of lint cotton continued to decline, and the support for futures and spot prices also declined. Although the cost of lint cotton has dropped, the price is still high. After all, the purchase price of seed cotton this year is much higher than last year. Therefore, with the support of the cost side, the space for lint cotton to continue to decline in the short term is relatively limited.
After the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, various countries have adopted city closure and isolation measures. Even so, the correction of domestic and foreign cotton prices has been limited, and there has not been a sharp drop as expected by the outside world. Especially boosted by the vaccine news, domestic and foreign cotton prices have Price performance is strong. As the epidemic gradually bottoms out and improves, demand gradually increases, which also supports the market price to a certain extent.
Currently entering the off-season for cotton spinning production, downstream consumption has decreased and inventories have increased. China’s cotton market weekly report shows that the supply pressure on the domestic cotton market is difficult to alleviate. After the “Double 11”, downstream orders declined. After the yarn price fell, cotton support weakened. . In addition, new cotton is gradually coming on the market. When supply increases and demand decreases, cotton prices lack upward momentum and do not have the conditions for a sharp rise in the short term.
As of the 16th, it was estimated that the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has reached 2,000 yuan/ton. Under such a large price difference, it is difficult for Zheng Cotton to get out of the independent market. After all, the large price difference is not conducive to the consumption of domestic cotton and yarn. Therefore, in many While the bears are still in a stalemate, cotton prices this year still maintain a range-bound trend, and the fluctuation space has been reduced. </p
