Fabric Products,Fabric Information,Fabric Factories,Fabric Suppliers Fabric News Short fiber futures A-shaped trend! Shock? What is the market outlook?

Short fiber futures A-shaped trend! Shock? What is the market outlook?



On November 13, short fiber futures weakened slightly, falling to near the 6,000 yuan mark. However, since its listing, it has completed a roller coaster trend in just one month, and the overall trend is simila…

A-shaped trend of short fiber futures! Is it a shock? How is the market outlook?

On November 13, short fiber futures weakened slightly, falling to near the 6,000 yuan mark. However, since its listing, it has completed a roller coaster trend in just one month, and the overall trend is similar to Type A. What is the future trend of the market? Is there a long-term shock or is there a unilateral market? Take a quick look at the institutional views, compiled by the editor as follows:

Liu Peiyang of Centaline Futures pointed out that the short fiber 2105 contract has gone out of an inverted “V”-shaped trend of rising first and then falling after its listing, and the current price is expected to fall back. To cover the gap on the second day after listing. In terms of volume and energy, trading volume is currently at a low level and capital outflows are obvious. In terms of indicators, the 5-day moving average and MACD indicators are showing a weak trend. Taken together, the price of the short fiber 2105 contract has continued to weaken recently, and the volume and capacity are insufficient. There is no sign of stopping the decline and stabilizing for the time being. Once it falls below the low on the first day of listing, the decline may continue.

Ruida Futures believes that the overall production and sales of the factory on the 5th were 28.75%, a decrease of 6.58% from the previous trading day. At present, the stocking inventory of yarn mills is about 18 days, and most buyers have a wait-and-see attitude. In terms of downstream demand, the domestic weaving load is stable at 83.20%. Manufacturers are rushing to produce “Double Eleven” orders, and the production is expected to be relatively stable in the near future. Textile manufacturers will receive fewer new orders in the future, and the short fiber operating rate will remain high. After the production and sales rate declines, the short fiber inventory will return to the trend of accumulation. In the first ten days of this month, short fiber demand companies are in a replenishment cycle, and they are paying attention to the production and sales of short fiber in the near future. Technically, in the short term, the PF2105 contract will focus on the support near 5800 at the lower edge of the gap, and test the pressure of 6000 on the top. In the short term, it is recommended to short orders and take profits, and be safe.

After investigation, GF Futures pointed out that the overall supply and demand of the short fiber market in Fujian is tightly balanced. At present, short fiber manufacturers are basically at full capacity, and the short-term supply increase is limited; short fiber factory inventories are generally negative, indicating that demand has indeed improved significantly, although the surveyed companies have different views on the degree of improvement in current demand and the sustainability of future orders. , the sustainability of demand has yet to be verified in the later period, and we are cautiously optimistic about overall demand.

CITIC Futures analysis said that in summary, the early short fiber market was driven by downstream emergency replenishment, and the existence of speculation and arbitrage funds amplified the volatility. The current level of short fiber processing fees is relatively good, and it is difficult to reduce prices by compressing processing fees in the short term. The fundamentals of the short fiber 05 contract are good, and there will be motivation to return to the Backwardation structure in the future. The market outlook will focus on the continued demand after the Double Eleven market.

CITIC Construction Investment further pointed out that from a fundamental perspective, the polyester short-term market has been in a state of strong supply and demand recently. It can be seen that the operating rate of short fiber factories is close to full, the inventory has been reduced rapidly, and even oversold conditions have occurred. At the same time, the start-up of downstream looms has also reached a historical high and is close to full capacity. The inventory of gray fabrics is still at a high level, but it is also in the process of being eliminated. It can be seen that the entire supply part of the short fiber link has been completely tightened, and it is difficult for the supply side to show greater elasticity. Therefore, the core logic that determines the short-fiber market in the near future lies in the real situation on the demand side.

SDIC Essence Futures analysis said that since late October, downstream stocking has slowed down, short fiber production and sales have been light, and prices have been adjusted. As crude oil rebounds, downstream stocks are once again focused on restocking, but subsequent orders may be difficult to compare with previous Double Eleven and Christmas export orders. Therefore, downstream replenishment efforts are relatively modest, and prices fell into shock after a brief rebound. In the mid-term, the supply and demand side of short fiber is still relatively good, but stimulation from the consumer side is needed. </p

This article is from the Internet, does not represent Composite Fabric,bonded Fabric,Lamination Fabric position, reproduced please specify the source.https://www.tradetextile.com/archives/30614

Author: clsrich

 
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