According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market has rebounded slightly recently. As of November 18, the average domestic PTA spot market price was 3,256 yuan/ton. It rose 4.41% from November 9 and fell 32.04% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main PTA futures (2101) closed higher on November 18. At the end of the day, the main futures closed at 3416, an increase of 30% from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.89%. The speculative bargaining mentality under the strong crude oil and low PTA prices supports the current price.
Recent domestic PTA device maintenance status unit: 10,000 tons/year
In terms of installation, domestic PTA equipment maintenance will begin in November The plan has been significantly reduced. At the beginning of the month, Yangzi Petrochemical started maintenance of 350,000 tons, and the restart time is to be determined; Yadong Petrochemical started maintenance of 700,000 tons on the 13th for 15 days; Hanbang Petrochemical reduced the load of 2.2 million tons to 60-70% on the 13th, and returned to normal on the 14th. . Chuaneng Chemical’s 1 million tons plant started maintenance for about five days on November 17. The operating load of the PTA industry remains at a high level of over 86%, and inventory accumulation is expected to increase. The current PTA social inventory is nearly 4 million tons, a significant increase of about 2.6 million tons compared with the same period last year.
The supply and demand side lacks favorable conditions. Some downstream polyester factories are promoting sales, and the overall production and sales are not prosperous. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are 100%-150%, and some Better factories reach 170%, and the overall inventory is concentrated in 24-36 days.
In terms of price, the quotations from polyester filament factories are temporarily stable. Polyester POY (150D/ 48F) quoted 5100-5350 yuan/ton. In terms of operating rate, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly to around 91%.
Xia Ting, an analyst at SunSirs, believes that crude oil is currently experiencing periodic high fluctuations, PTA has accumulated inventory, the market mentality is cautious, and the overall demand is tepid. It is expected that in the future, there is a risk of a pullback in the PTA market.
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