It is understood that with the continuous upward oscillation of ICE cotton futures in recent days, and the effective promotion of Pakistan’s large-scale orders and signing of American upland cotton in 2020/21, US cotton, Brazilian cotton, West African cotton, Uzbek cotton, and Indian cotton As cargo/bonded cotton quotations have responded to the ICE increase (most of the basis has not been adjusted), the bullish mentality of international cotton merchants and large and medium-sized cotton importing companies has obviously picked up.
However, according to feedback from cotton traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Guangzhou and other places, due to rising internal and external quotations of imported cotton, lack of sustainability of cotton consumer terminal orders, and the out-of-control COVID-19 epidemic in Europe and the United States, trade, transportation, etc. In sharp contrast to the rising foreign cotton quotations due to concerns about the impact, US cotton shipments, customs clearance cotton inquiries and transactions continued to weaken or even become deserted. U.S. cotton, Brazilian cotton, etc. have a relatively special trend of “half sea water, half flame” in terms of volume and price. A cotton company in Qingdao said that although there is a lack of support from cargo, bonded and customs-cleared cotton trading volumes, traders are more enthusiastic about following ICE’s rise and refusing to adjust the basis; in addition, the cotton import quota within the 1% tariff has basically been The exhaustion and the continued narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton have negative effects. Therefore, the transactions and shipments of US cotton have not yet bottomed out and rebounded.
Judging from traders’ quotations, the spot prices of 2019/20 US cotton 31-3 36 (28GPT) and 21-3 36 (28GPT) at Qingdao Port on November 23-24 were 87.1 US dollars respectively. cents/pound, 87.5 cents/pound; while the December shipping date M 36 (M 1-1/8) US cotton quotation is 79.50-80.50 cents/pound (EMOT/MOT quotation is slightly higher); and 11/ The quotations of Brazilian cotton M 1-1/8 (strong 28GPT) and SM 1-5/32 for December shipment have also risen to 79.25-80.25 cents/pound and 81.50-82.20 cents/pound respectively, with similar quality and grade. The quotation of Brazilian cotton is basically in line with that of US cotton, and its competitiveness has declined significantly.
Industry analysis shows that, on the one hand, affected by the La Nina climate, Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest cotton-producing area, has received scant rainfall and continued drought. Some institutions predict that in 2020, not only the cotton planting area in Brazil will increase significantly, The market has been worried about whether it can be sown on time. On the other hand, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and the fluctuation of the real exchange rate, the cost of Brazilian cotton planting, road transportation and warehousing, and shipping costs have all increased significantly, and cotton prices are at a low level. A state that is difficult to rise. </p
