Since late October, ethylene glycol has entered a downward trend again. Although there have been occasional rebounds during the period, the overall performance is still weak; as of November 16, the main contract of ethylene glycol closed at 3,682 yuan/ton. .
In 2020, domestic ethylene glycol will usher in a stage of concentrated production capacity. At the beginning of the year, three sets of units of Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical, especially the large-scale oil production plants of Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical The commissioning of the device has greatly increased the effective domestic ethylene glycol production capacity; at the end of the third quarter, the commissioning of multiple units such as Shanxi Woneng, Sinochem Quanzhou and Zhongke Refining and Chemical has further increased the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity.
In early November, the 200,000 tons/year plant in Yongcheng, Henan and the 600,000 tons/year plant in Xinjiang Tianye Phase 4 were successfully discharged, and the installation load is steadily increasing. In the later stage, four units including Hubei Sanning, Yanchang Petroleum, Jianyuan Coal Coking and Shaanxi Weihua, with a total capacity of 1.24 million tons/year, are scheduled to release production around December. If the unit launch plan goes smoothly, the domestic ethylene glycol annual output by the end of 2020 The production capacity will exceed 17 million tons to 17.221 million tons, a significant increase of 6.19 million tons from the end of 2019, an increase of 56.11%.
Affected by processing profits, the start-up of domestic ethylene glycol devices was lower than the level in previous years for most of 2020. The comprehensive daily operating rate once dropped to 50% in the middle of the year. However, the substantial expansion of the production capacity base has As a result, domestic ethylene glycol supply will still increase significantly in 2020. In October 2020, domestic ethylene glycol production was 738,000 tons, an increase of 158,400 tons compared with the same period in 2019; the cumulative domestic ethylene glycol production in the first ten months of 2020 was 7.1377 million tons, a significant increase of 1.0331 million tons compared with the same period in 2019. The increase reached 16.92%. According to the latest production capacity and start-up data, on November 17, domestic daily ethylene glycol production was approximately 26,300 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons compared with the same period in 2019; with the subsequent launch of new production capacity, domestic ethylene glycol production is expected to increase With further improvement, the supply pressure of ethylene glycol will still be relatively large.
With the end of the “Double Eleven” consumer festival, the terminal weaving market has gradually entered the off-season, and overseas Christmas orders are no longer as “hot” as in previous years, further weakening the performance of the terminal market.
Compared with the weaving end, the polyester market directly downstream of ethylene glycol declined earlier. Since late October, after experiencing high production and sales for several consecutive weeks, as the replenishment of inventory by downstream companies has basically ended, although the start-up of polyester plants has remained stable for the time being, market transactions have become dull. In addition to companies cutting prices to promote production and sales, Most of the time, the production and sales of various polyester varieties have remained at around 50%, which is significantly different from the average weekly production and sales that continuously exceeded 100 in mid-to-early October. As of November 16, the daily operating load of domestic polyester factories was 86.29%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points from the same period in 2019.
Although both have been affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the price trends of raw material prices for the two ethylene glycol processing technologies of oil and coal are indeed different. Thanks to the sharp drop in international oil prices in 2020, oil-to-ethylene glycol The processing cost has dropped significantly, and the previous processing cost advantage of coal-to-ethylene glycol no longer exists. Except for July, oil-to-ethylene glycol has been able to maintain a certain processing profit during most of 2020, while coal-to-ethylene glycol has been in a state of substantial loss for a long time. The processing profit was once close to -1,500 yuan/ton when it was the lowest. Taking the two processes of oil and coal together, the current overall profit performance of ethylene glycol processing is poor. Therefore, as long as raw material prices do not fall further, the cost end of ethylene glycol will receive strong support. According to estimates, as of November 16, the domestic oil-to-ethylene glycol processing profit was 195 yuan/ton, and the coal-to-ethylene glycol processing profit was -978.2 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of the supply and demand pattern, there are still many new sets of ethylene glycol equipment in China that will be put into production in the future. With the increase in production capacity, the supply of ethylene glycol is expected to further increase; in terms of demand, with overseas Christmas orders and The traditional domestic consumption peak season is basically over, polyester and even terminal woven materials will gradually enter the off-season, and the demand for ethylene glycol is expected to weaken. </p
