We are now in the peak period of cotton purchasing and processing in Xinjiang. In previous years, various research reports could be seen everywhere in the market, but some of them have disappeared this year. The reason is that epidemics have broken out in Xinjiang, which has discouraged all investigators. Although there are fewer research groups, the popularity of Xinjiang cotton has not diminished. The 2,000-point market price of Zheng cotton after the National Day has attracted much attention. Especially for cotton during the harvest season, changes in its output, quality, and price still have an impact on the market. Development plays an important role.
The cotton planting area has stabilized and the yield has increased slightly
As early as late August 2020, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System launched a nationwide special survey on cotton growth. The results showed that the new cotton yield per unit area in 2020 was 128.5 kg/mu, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The output is 5.868 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the June survey results. The average yield in Xinjiang increased by 1.8% from June, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and the output is expected to be 5.156 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
During this survey of northern and southern Xinjiang, reporters from China Cotton Network learned that the cotton planting area in northern and southern Xinjiang is basically stable this year. In some areas, affected by regulatory policies, the area has increased slightly. The area has declined, but there are also areas with a slight increase in area. Overall, the area is relatively stable.
The weather in Xinjiang is suitable for cotton growth this year, and output has increased slightly in both northern and southern Xinjiang. The results of this survey show that the average yield per mu in Xinjiang’s main cotton-producing areas has reached 400 kilograms, and even the yields per mu with low yields are more than 370 kilograms, which is a big change compared with last year. In some plots that were severely affected last year, the average yield per mu increased by more than 20% this year.
The quality of cotton has declined and the impurity content has increased
During this survey, the reporter found that this year The quality of cotton has declined, and the horse value has increased especially significantly. This is of course related to the increase in temperature in the late growth period. In Northern Xinjiang, cotton indicators have dropped significantly regardless of the corps or local areas. A certain cotton planting farm in Wujiaqu City accounted for more than 80% of the “Double 28” indicators last year. This year, it is the opposite, and the indicator has dropped unexpectedly. According to the survey, the decline in quality is closely related to cotton cultivation. In order to increase production, cotton farmers have excessively pursued lint points, resulting in this year’s seed cotton being generally one to two lint points higher than last year. The clothing content and quality of seed cotton check and balance each other. If the clothing content is excessively pursued, the length and strength of the cotton fiber will inevitably decrease. In addition, the impurity content of cotton this year is high, which is closely related to the spraying of cotton defoliants. According to cotton farmers, defoliants are now basically sprayed by drones. Due to the spraying angle and intensity, the defoliation effect of the lower leaves of the cotton plant is poor. Of course, the increase in impurity content also pushes up the output to a certain extent.
Machine picking rates have generally increased and picking costs have dropped
During this Xinjiang-wide survey, The most obvious thing that reporters feel is the increase in cotton machine harvesting rate in Xinjiang, which is especially surprising in southern Xinjiang. In the past two years, the mechanical mining rate in northern Xinjiang has reached a very high level. The main change this year is the rapid replacement of machinery and equipment. In the past, cotton pickers were usually unloaded into the fields after picking, and then loaded into trucks and transported to the processing factory. This year, a picker that integrates picking and packaging appeared in Northern Xinjiang, which not only improved the efficiency of picking and transportation, but also reduced the “three problems” in the field. “Silk” is contaminated by impurities, and the selling price is 0.05-0.1 yuan/kg higher than that of traditional picking methods. The rate of machine picking in southern Xinjiang has increased significantly this year. On the road, we can see many cotton machines that have been picked in northern Xinjiang traveling long distances to southern Xinjiang, ready to show off their skills. Local people estimate that the overall machine-picked rate in southern Xinjiang may reach more than 60%. The original main production areas of hand-picked cotton have also switched to machine-picked cotton this year (the machine-picked fee in northern Xinjiang has been reduced to 100 yuan/acre, while the hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang The fee is 1.8 yuan/kg), which has a lot to do with this year’s epidemic. The COVID-19 epidemic has led to a decrease in the number of workers coming to Xinjiang to pick flowers. In addition, the cost advantage of machine picking is obvious. In order to catch up with the sales when the market is good, many growers use machines to pick flowers, which increases the speed of sales.
The price of seed cotton has increased significantly and the ginning capacity has increased
The sales price of Xinjiang seed cotton has been outstanding this year , an average of nearly 2 yuan/kg higher than last year. Unlike the past where futures prices led the spot price trend, this year it is the spot price that leads the futures price movement. After the “National Day” holiday, Xinjiang’s cotton market ushered in a big change. The selling price of seed cotton changed every day, and some even changed three times a day. This was rarely seen in the previous purchase periods. The purchase price of machine-picked cotton reached a maximum of 7.5 yuan/kg. Hand-picked cotton once reached about 8.7 yuan/kg. However, with the pullback of Zheng Cotton, the spot price fell briefly. According to Xinjiang cotton enterprises, the large increase in purchase prices this year is closely related to the addition of more than 70 ginning production lines in Xinjiang. With more monks and less meat, the price of seed cotton has been raised step by step, and there is limited room for price decline in the future. However, some people in the cotton industry believe that this year’s price increase is related to the improvement in downstream consumption. This person believes that Xinjiang’s processing capacity also increased last year. The addition of dozens of ginning production lines alone is unlikely to lead to such high prices. It is also the low inventory of downstream companies and the improvement of the production situation that has boosted the price increase. Regardless of the reason, the rising price of seed cotton is an indisputable fact.
The operating rate of textile enterprises has increased, and yarn orders are sufficient
According to the latest cotton textile industry procurement The Managers Index (PMI) shows that in September 2020, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the cotton textile industry was 50.86, the highest level this year.The highest value since then, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the new order index, production volume, and operating rate all increased compared with the previous month, with an increase of 5.59, 0.9, and 1.09 percentage points respectively; the sales of finished products accelerated, and the cotton yarn inventory index decreased by 0.08 percentage points from the previous month; the demand for raw material procurement of textile enterprises increased. , the cotton inventory index increased by 11.66 percentage points from the previous month.
The reporter found during the investigation in Xinjiang that the actual situation is consistent with the above data. A textile company in Xinjiang said that its orders are now scheduled until November, and the production and order-taking situation is good. Although the price of cotton yarn has also increased a lot due to the price of cotton, the increase compared with cotton is still small, and the low profit situation has not been achieved. Fundamental reversal. At present, the inventories of downstream enterprises are generally low. When cotton prices are not stable, enterprises dare not take orders in large quantities. The current production is mainly based on previous orders from old customers. In the later period, as the holiday consumption seasons such as “Double Eleven” and Christmas gradually come into effect, cotton yarn orders are expected to fall. Enterprises are worried that the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is too large, which is not conducive to the export of downstream products and may also affect the increase in upstream cotton prices.
Just as the investigation was coming to an end, the reporter and his party happened to catch up with the outbreak of the epidemic in Kashgar. Judging from personal experience, due to Xinjiang’s rapid response, the entire Kashgar region has now been quarantined. According to nucleic acid testing, it is expected that the epidemic will have limited impact on Xinjiang cotton picking, sale, and transportation. As cotton picking in Xinjiang comes to an end, cotton prices for the new year are basically determined, and the core of future price increases and decreases will still be changes in consumption. </p