The recent astonishing rise in PTA prices is no accident. Under the collision of various factors, PTA prices have sparked.
On the one hand, the processing fee of raw material PX continues the repair process. Looking at the PX market this year, the PX processing fee has been in a state of compression, with the lowest point reaching 118 US dollars. Recently, the processing fee Restored to around $170.
Judging from the recent strong trend of crude oil, the market still holds optimistic expectations for the later period. In addition, with the expectation of improvement in PX supply and demand, the PX processing gap is still expected to continue to recover. For PTA There will be good support, so under the strong oil price trend, PTA may continue to be strong and volatile.
On the other hand, the price of PTA has been at an absolute low in the early stage. This time, driven by the rise in crude oil and the pull of financial power, the price of PTA is reasonable and expected. outside the rise.
Recently, due to the expansion of the delivery warehouse, some supply sources have been transferred to the delivery warehouse and registered as warehouse receipts, resulting in slightly tight supply liquidity in the spot market, which supports the strengthening of PTA prices to a certain extent. .
PTAVS polyester: The story of “overhaul and load reduction” has been going on!
Since the second half of this year, the contradiction between supply and demand in the polyester industry has become very obvious, and stories about “overhaul and load reduction” have never stopped in the market.
In December, although some PTA devices are expected to be overhauled, the overall supply is still at a high level. It is estimated that if the statistical devices are overhauled as scheduled, it is estimated that 12 The monthly output was 4.5 million tons, which is still a record high.
Recent PTA installation maintenance schedule:
As for the polyester end, some companies announced in December Maintenance plan, but the specific time is not clear. It is temporarily estimated that it will start to appear after late December. Then the demand for polyester for PTA will continue to be rigidly supported. The polyester output is expected to be 4.78 million tons in December. The weakening of demand may begin to appear around mid-January.
Recent polyester equipment maintenance list:
In the short term, the loose supply and demand situation of PTA is difficult to improve, and the cost side is Under the support of crude oil, the price trend is strong and volatile.
However, from a long-term perspective, PTA supply continues to grow, and a large number of warehouse receipts in delivery warehouses may become the norm in the future.
1. PTA supply will continue to increase
From January to November 2020, PTA added 8.4 million tons/year. production capacity, with a total production capacity of 57.03 million tons/year. In 2021, it is expected that the PTA industry will add 11.5 million tons/year of new production capacity, including two sets of PTA of Fujian Baihong with 2.4 million tons/year, Honggang Petrochemical with 2.5 million tons/year, and Yisheng Ningbo Petrochemical with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons/year. device. From the perspective of production time, the PTA unit will be put into production in the first half of next year. If the above production capacity is successfully put into operation, the production capacity growth rate of the PTA industry will reach 20% in 2021. Although the operating rate of the PTA industry may decline due to the expected reduction in processing fees, the pressure on PTA supply is still great.
2. The growth rate of polyester production is not as fast as the growth rate of PTA supply
From January to November 2020, polyester increased With an annual production capacity of 4.49 million tons, the launch of new production capacity has been relatively smooth, exceeding market expectations. In 2021, under the “dual cycle” development pattern, the domestic economy will further recover, and domestic demand in the textile and apparel industry will also slowly improve. In addition, the signing of RCEP will also enhance the export competitiveness of my country’s chemical synthetic fibers. At present, the expansion of polyester production capacity is mainly based on the integrated configuration of upstream and downstream industry leaders. The overall enterprise has strong risk resistance and a higher tolerance for high inventory and low profits. It is expected that the launch of polyester production capacity next year will be relatively smooth. In 2021, the polyester industry is expected to add 6.355 million tons/year of production capacity, and the production capacity growth rate will reach 10.2%.
3. PTA social inventory will continue to accumulate
At the beginning of 2020, PTA social inventory was 1.334 million tons. During the year, the PTA industry’s production capacity expanded rapidly, but downstream demand was insufficient to follow up. As of December 4, PTA social inventory rose to 4.156 million tons, an increase of 2.822 million tons from the beginning of the year. According to the PTA and polyester production capacity investment plan, the growth rate of PTA supply in 2021 will far exceed the growth rate of demand, and the oversupply will further intensify, and social inventory may approach 5 million tons during the year.
4. The profits of the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain will be redistributed
In 2020, PX-PTA-polyester The overall profit level of the industry chain has dropped significantly, with profits mainly concentrated in the PTA industry, while profits in the PX and polyester industries have been significantly compressed. In 2021, in the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain, the contradiction between supply and demand of PTA will be the most prominent, followed by PX and polyester. Industrial chain profits will also be redistributed. The PTA industry will enter an era of low processing fees, and the transferred processing fees will flow into the PX and polyester markets, which have relatively good supply and demand. Referring to the previous PTA industry cycle, it is expected that PTA processing fees will fall back to the same period in 2015-2016, with the overall processing fee operating range being 300-500 yuan/ton.
In short, in 2021, the PTA oversupply situation will further intensify, and the processing fees of the PTA industry will also be compressed. With low processing fees, the cost side’s guidance on the absolute price of PTA will be further strengthened.
</p
