Overview:
External crude oil continued to rise last week, with the main Brent 02 contract increasing by 2.12% on a weekly basis and exceeding US$50 during the week. The main WTI 01 contract has a weekly increase of 1.02%. The main contract of SC crude oil 2102 fell sharply last week, with the largest weekly decline of 2.36%.
The epidemic continues to break out in the United States. The United States added more than 250,000 new cases in a single day, setting a new high. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases reached 16.2957 million, with more than 300,000 deaths. The epidemic situation in India and Brazil is still not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India has reached nearly 9.827 million. Pay attention to vaccine progress.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA fluctuated during the week and rose to 3,490 yuan/ton. The processing difference of TA disk in recent months has basically fluctuated at 640-720 this week, and the main processing difference has basically fluctuated at 700-800. TA’s spot processing difference widened significantly to 552. Yangzi Petrochemical’s 350,000-ton unit was shut down from 11.3, and restart is pending; Zhongtai Chemical’s 1.2 million-ton unit was shut down at 10.5, and is expected to restart around mid-December; Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4-million-ton unit dropped by 50% from 12.7-12.8, and the rest are operating normally. PTA’s domestic load remained stable at 91.9%.
Maintenance plan: Fuhua Industry and Trade’s 4.5 million ton unit is scheduled to be inspected for 25 days from December 17; Zhuhai BP Petrochemical’s 1.1 million ton unit is scheduled to be inspected from December 12 and restarted at the end of the month. Polyester load maintains stability at high levels. As of last Friday, preliminary calculations indicate that the domestic polyester comprehensive load is 91%. Last week, construction starts in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased and decreased, and some gray fabric shipments rebounded. Last week, the operating rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded slightly, while the operating rates of printing and dyeing declined slightly. The operating capacity of looms rose to 86%, that of texturing rose to 94%, and that of dyeing plants dropped to 86%.
The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in November dropped by 8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. The decline is expected to continue to improve to -2% in December. The filament loss is obviously repaired. Crude oil prices continued to rise last week, with strong cost support. The PTA-PX spread fluctuated at a low level. Pay attention to the polyester maintenance plan for the New Year.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose to 3,850 yuan / ton; the price of nearby coal products rose sharply to 3,675 yuan / ton. The basis of ethylene glycol has fluctuated widely in recent months, with the strongest during the week being 36, and as of last Friday it was -57. As of December 7, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.014 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous period. The arrival forecast last week was about 78,000 tons, and arrivals continued to be low. Treasury accumulation expectations may be pushed back to January. The start-up of ethylene glycol coal-based equipment continued to rebound last week. As of December 10, the overall domestic ethylene glycol start-up load was 62.39%, of which the coal-to-ethylene glycol start-up load was 53.26%.
Overseas: In December, 720,000 tons of equipment have been restarted and the load is being increased, and the restart plan of Lotte Dashan 1# has been postponed. A new 828,000-ton unit in South Asia (USA) is currently in preparation and is scheduled to be commissioned on December 11. The increase in overseas supply will be delayed. EG05 increased its position by more than 30,000 lots in Friday night trading. It is currently strong due to rising costs and capital speculation.
Cost and profit
1. Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) rose sharply last week following crude oil, rising to $448.5/ton on Friday. External crude oil continued to rise last week, with the main Brent 02 contract rising by 2.12% on a weekly basis, exceeding US$50 during the week. The main WTI 01 contract has a weekly increase of 1.02%. The naphtha-Brent spread fluctuated and widened last week, reaching US$81 as of last Friday; the naphtha-WTI spread followed the same trend, reaching around US$106 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) continued to rise last week following crude oil, rising to US$595 as of last Friday. The PX-NPT spread fluctuated at a low level this week, reaching US$151 as of last Friday. PX China and Asia operating rates increased slightly from the previous week.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol during the week At a high above 3850, it was 3850 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price near coal production rose sharply to 3,675 yuan/ton. Coal prices have risen sharply, raising the cost of coal production. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene glycol continued to increase this week to -$188/ton. Naphtha to ethylene glycol remains at basic breakeven, with a small loss of about US$7 last week. The price of methanol has risen sharply, and the cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route has sharply increased to -1986 yuan/ton.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic installation: Yangzi The 350,000-ton petrochemical unit was shut down from 11.3, and restart is pending; the 1.2 million-ton unit of Zhongtai Chemical was shut down at 10.5, and is expected to restart around mid-December; the 1.4-million-ton unit of Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical dropped by 50% from 12.7-12.8, and the rest is operating normally. PTA’s domestic load remained significantly stable at 91.9%.
Maintenance plan: Fuhua Industry and Trade’s 4.5 million ton unit is scheduled to be inspected for 25 days from December 17; Zhuhai BP Petrochemical’s 1.1 million ton unit is scheduled to be inspected from December 12 and restarted at the end of the month.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: Starting from December 2020, the CCF MEG production capacity will be revised up to 15.835 million tons, the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity will be revised up to 5.99 million tons, and Henan Energy Yongcheng Phase II 20 will be added million tons and Xinjiang Tianye 600,000 tons.
As of December 10, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 62.39%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was at 62.39%.53.26%.
Sinopec Wuhan’s 280,000-ton unit will be shut down for maintenance for 2 months on 10.15; China Marine Shell’s Phase II load has dropped slightly by around 15%, and is expected to last until the end of the month; Henan Yongcheng’s 200,000-ton unit has been temporarily shut down on 11.17, and its restart is to be determined; Xinhang Energy’s 400,000-ton unit is currently operating normally; Tianying’s 150,000-ton unit was shut down for maintenance near 11.27 and resumed full-load operation on 12.7; Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical’s 400,000-ton unit was inspected for 30 days starting on 11.20; Shanxi Woneng’s 300,000-ton unit The negative value was slightly increased to 80%. Maintenance plan: Fude Energy plans to perform maintenance for 10 days in January.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
2PTA inventory
PTA-converted total social inventory continued to accumulate significantly last week, warehouse receipts continued to rise sharply, and PTA factories Factory inventories remained stable, and polyester factory raw material inventories declined slightly. Circulation inventories fell slightly.
3 Ethylene Glycol Import and Port Inventory
As of December 7, the main port in East China The regional MEG port inventory is approximately 1.014 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from December 7 to December 13, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 78,000 tons, and the arrivals at the port continue to be low. The expected accumulation of funds may be pushed back to January.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
The polyester plant continues to be put into operation. From December 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity has been revised upward to 63.2 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun and 300,000 tons of Xinfengming. Last week, Yida’s 200,000-ton short fiber plant was overhauled. As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of the domestic polyester comprehensive load was 91%. It is expected that the load will continue to remain high and stable in December.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of last Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were respectively at 8, 11.2, 13.2 days. Filament continues to be destocked, and the loss of filament has been significantly restored to about 22 yuan. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded slightly to -2.8 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes dropped slightly to below 25 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester bottle flakes remains at the highest level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester filament is at the equilibrium level for the same period in the past.
2 terminal situation
Last week Construction starts in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang have gone up and down, and some gray fabric shipments have picked up. Last week, the operating rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded slightly, while the operating rates of printing and dyeing declined slightly. The operating capacity of looms rose to 86%, that of texturing rose to 94%, and that of dyeing plants dropped to 86%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area dropped to 40 days in early November and then rose again to 41.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in November fell by 8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. It is expected that the decline will continue to improve to -2% in December. </p
