Since late November, Zheng cotton has continued to rise, breaking through multiple important pressure levels in a row, creating a strong upward trend. Looking at the historical trend chart of Zheng Cotton this year, the market price has risen from about 10,000 yuan/ton to around 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 50%. It can be said that it is very powerful. How will the future market perform?
Zheng cotton has gradually approached the year’s high of 15,000 yuan/ton. The 2101 contract is about to enter the delivery month. The focus of the future market will be on the 2105 contract. According to analysis, there are currently more reasons for the cotton market to rise than to fall, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. Of course, the future is still full of uncertainties. The greater the market divergence, the more intense the market may develop. At least from a technical perspective, Zheng Cotton is in an upward channel. It is more likely to continue to break through new highs in the medium term, but not in the short term.
International cotton professional analysts said that the advent of vaccines and vaccinations is the general trend, and the recovery in consumption will be irreversible. Coupled with the global central bank’s massive release of water, prices continue to hit new highs. In addition, the USDA reported a decrease in production, which also stimulated cotton prices to a certain extent. According to the USDA report, global production decreased and consumption increased, resulting in a month-on-month decrease in cotton ending stocks, with production in the United States decreasing by nearly 20%, Brazil decreasing by 10.8%, and Pakistan decreasing. 27.4%. As Pakistan’s textile production recovers, its cotton imports will exceed 1 million tons, an increase of 64% in two years. China’s imports are expected to increase by 40% to 2.18 million tons, the highest since 2013/14. Bangladesh and Vietnam also continue to import on a large scale.
This person said that this round of US cotton rise is also related to the decline of the US dollar and the improvement of exports. Judging from the trend, it can stand at 75 cents/pound in the short term. As for the important mark of 80 cents/pound, Maybe we need to wait until next year to make a breakthrough. Every crisis is accompanied by a great opportunity. It is undeniable that 2020 is a rare investment year.
There has been a strong bullish atmosphere in the commodity market recently, and many institutions are optimistic about the commodity market next year. Due to historic fiscal expenditures and continued low interest rates, there is a high probability that inflation will occur. It is expected that commodities will have a bull market next year, among which agriculture The sector deserves particular attention as increased demand combined with weather factors leads to tighter supply.
Market development begins and ends amidst controversy. Of course, whether next year’s cotton bull market will be realized or not, it is better to take it one step at a time, do not make unreasonable guesses, and it may be more reliable to follow the trend. </p