Zheng cotton futures have maintained a strong and volatile trend this week. For many days, due to the fierce competition between the long and short parties, many industry insiders believe that the main force is under great pressure to break through 15,000 yuan/ton. Now the CF2105 contract has officially exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton. The mid-to-high point reached 15,020 yuan/ton. Why was Zheng Mian able to break through the key pressure level in a short period of time? Will it be able to stabilize at 15,000 yuan/ton in the later period or rise again?
First of all, Zheng Cotton CF2105 has been hovering in the 14300-14700 yuan/ton range from mid-November to early December. It has shown signs of strong rise since last Friday, which may be mainly It was driven by the strengthening external market. Last Thursday, the United States released a cotton export report and a global monthly supply and demand report. Among them, the US cotton export and global supply and demand data were both positive. The US cotton March contract quickly exceeded 75 cents/pound. Yesterday, it was once again benefited by the increase in exports, and the closing price reached 77.19 cents/pound, and even has the momentum to hit 80 cents/pound. In addition, the dollar exchange rate fell and vaccine progress also brought some support to the market.
Secondly, yarn mills have recently raised yarn prices, especially those of medium and high-count yarns by more than a thousand yuan per ton. At the same time, some dyeing and finishing companies have also raised prices, which has affected cotton prices. The upward adjustment has a certain boost. Among them, the knitting market transactions in Guangdong continue to heat up, and the number of spring and summer orders received by textile companies has increased. In addition, some yarn mills and traders reported that the prices of high-count varieties, mainly 40/50/60, have increased significantly, and the spot inventory of some companies has dropped to low levels, further promoting the pace of corporate procurement. Of course, some companies have already put the Spring Festival holiday on their agenda, and their production and sales are under certain control. The downstream textile market is slightly differentiated, but some improvements in demand are still good for cotton consumption.
Furthermore, although there is already a certain amount of new cotton in the market for hedging, there is still a large amount of high-cost cotton that cannot be sold profitably. The high cost of cotton in the new year will continue to have an impact on the market. Provide support for the bottom of the market. Driven by the willingness of ginning companies to sell cotton at high prices but not to reduce it, cotton prices may remain in a situation where it is easy to fall but difficult to rise.
Generally speaking, the short-term market is more positive, providing a certain impetus for the rise in cotton prices. However, restrictions on downstream garment exports and the impact of traditional holidays have made it difficult for textile companies to increase orders or limit orders. Cotton prices increased. Therefore, the wait-and-see mentality of all parties in the market has also increased. It is recommended that industry players take stabilizing operations as the best policy and prevent blind gambling on the market. </p
