With the gradual increase in international oil prices in recent days, the price of polyester raw materials has also been pulled upward. In the early stage, with the support of good news such as the recovery of the domestic economy and the start of vaccination in many countries, commodity prices were also rising one after another. This wave of rising momentum has finally reached the chemical fiber market.
In particular, polyester filament has performed strongly recently, with the largest increase among polyester varieties. This is largely due to the support of the cost end, achieving Rising against the trend.
As polyester prices begin to bottom out, changes in raw material prices also have an impact on gray fabric prices. “Although from the current point of view, there is a high probability that the price of polyester yarn will rise in the later period, our prediction may not be very large. In fact, compared with the surge in raw materials, we still hope that polyester yarn can be stable and not rise or fall sharply. Once the upstream raw materials are hot but the downstream fabrics fail to keep up, the increase in polyester filament will become our burden, which is equivalent to using high-priced raw materials to weave low-priced cloth.” said a weaving factory owner.
At present, polyester filament continues to rise. However, as the new year is approaching, will the next rise be short-lived or will it continue to buck the trend? The editor thinks that next, the rise of polyester yarn may be affected by the following three news.
1. Energy saving and emission reduction, and power limitation affect the operation of the texturing machine
Recently, there have been reports on energy saving and emission reduction, News on power rationing policies, such as “Tongxiang launches city-wide dual energy control and coal consumption reduction A-level emergency response”, “Hangzhou advocates energy conservation, if the temperature exceeds 3 degrees Celsius outside the city, agencies will not allow air conditioners to be turned on”, “Zhejiang Power outages have begun in factories in counties and cities in the Jinhua region of the province, and energy conservation and emission reduction have begun.” “Cixi chemical fiber enterprises in Zhejiang will have power cuts for 2 days before the end of this month.” According to verification, for the polyester industry, texturing enterprises have a greater impact, because Texturing machines consume a lot of power. Therefore, due to the influence of policies, texturing companies in the region have mostly shut down some texturing machines. Recently, due to the high profit level of texturing, the operating load of texturing machines is often above 95%. , and affected by this policy, the startup load of the local texturing machine is expected to drop to around 80%. The power limit period of this policy is from mid-December to the end of the month.
2. Boiler renovation of polyester factories in Xiaoshao area
From the end of December to mid-January of the following year, Xiaoshao Many companies in the region plan to shut down due to boiler renovations. By then, polyester supply will be reduced. Most polyester factories said that texturing machines will maintain normal operation, and terminal demand will decline at the end of the year. Therefore, the overall supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly, which mainly affects POY, Supply of FDY. However, boosted by this news, the overall supply of polyester has shrunk, which is expected to provide some support to market prices.
3. It is difficult to distinguish between true and false downstream news about early holidays
The news of “early holidays” has been heard since November. And one after another, the report shows that there are no official government documents and notices in the downstream texturing, weaving, printing and dyeing and other fields. However, considering the uncertainty of the epidemic trend and economic recovery next year, the terminal field is cautious about the market in the first half of next year, and At the end of the year, most users have started to buy at low prices and build inventory. Therefore, it is expected that the market demand in the early stage of the year will be difficult to exceed expectations. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, some companies said they would stop work and take holidays in advance. Small and medium-sized enterprise factories have no guaranteed source of income after the holidays, so they will face a more severe “labor shortage” problem next year. It is true that the labor shortage is not only affected by this. According to analysis by people in the textile industry, currently most weaving workers are born in the 1970s and before 1985. Graduates born in the 1985s and 1990s mostly choose jobs with good office environments or jobs in the financial industry. Therefore, The number of workers in textile and other infrastructure facilities is gradually decreasing, so the subsequent “labor shortage” problem will continue, which will also affect the operation of polyester and downstream equipment to a certain extent.
Judging from the current market feedback, if the price of polyester filament yarn is to continue to rise, either terminal clothing demand will improve, or the upstream support force will be strong enough. Although the polyester filament market is highly concentrated, the market can never escape the “supply and demand relationship”, so the upside is limited by the recovery of the weaving and texturing industries. However, judging from the current situation, the end of the year off-season and the impact of the above news It will take time for the impact to fully rebound.
Of course, there is not much room for the price of polyester filament to fall in the short term. After all, after a long period of price decline, polyester filament has fallen to a very low position. In addition, the pressure on its own inventory is not strong, so the price is strong. Or the intention to pull up is greater.
In any case, the market entering the end of the year will enter the upstream and downstream game stage, and it remains to be determined who will win and who will lose! </p
